Big data explains the seed production and supply-demand situation for the new season

Editor's note: This year, major seed production bases in Gansu, Xinjiang and other regions suffered high temperatures and drought, and seed production yields declined. Can next year's seed production meet demand? Autumn grain prices have fallen, and selling difficulties are widespread. How should the planting structure be adjusted next year? In short, how much will be harvested this year? What will be planted next year? The national analysis of production, supply and demand for major crop seeds in autumn can give you a clear answer.

This year

How much seed for spring and summer sown crops will be harvested

Hybrid corn

Seed production area increased by 470,000 mu, and output increased by 86 million kilograms.

In 2015, the actual hybrid corn seed production area nationwide was 3.42 million mu, with 1.096 billion kilograms of seed harvested, an increase of 470,000 mu and 86 million kilograms respectively over last year. This year, major production areas such as Xinjiang and Gansu suffered a rare high-temperature disaster during the key growth period of seed corn, reducing output by a total of 240 million kilograms. Yunnan Province suffered drought and flooding in April-May and July-August respectively, reducing seed production by 48 million kilograms. Therefore, this year the hybrid corn seed production area increased considerably, but output did not increase much.

Hybrid rice

Output in the Hunan and Jiangxi seed production areas declined. In Jiangsu, 10,000 mu of seed production fields were scrapped, and 20,000 mu of seed was diverted to commercial use.

In 2015, the actual hybrid rice seed production area was 1.45 million mu, with 239 million kilograms of seed harvested, an increase of 50,000 mu and 9 million kilograms respectively over last year. Among them, the seed production area for two-line rice was 510,000 mu with output of 77.87 million kilograms, and for three-line rice 940,000 mu with output of 160.68 million kilograms; the seed production area for early rice was 270,000 mu with output of 45.53 million kilograms, for middle rice 870,000 mu with output of 146.49 million kilograms, and for late rice 310,000 mu with output of 46.56 million kilograms. This year, the hybrid rice seed production area increased year on year, but output remained basically flat. The main reasons: first, seed production areas in Hunan, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Fujian suffered low temperatures and continuous rain during the flowering and pollination period of hybrid rice, reducing output by 16 million kilograms; second, some two-line combinations in the Jiangsu and Fujian seed production areas underwent fertility conversion of the female parent, and 13,700 mu of seed production fields were basically scrapped; third, Jiangsu was also affected by low temperatures and insufficient sunlight at the seedling stage, and 20,600 mu of seed was diverted to commercial use.

What is the market situation for seed of autumn and winter sown crops

Winter wheat

The area of wheat sown in autumn and winter next year will increase slightly, and 4.6 billion kilograms of seed can meet demand.

The quantity of winter wheat seed for summer harvest is sufficient, and seed quality is generally good. The wheat seed market for this season's autumn and winter sowing operated smoothly overall, with prices basically flat compared with last year. Because Shandong and Anhui canceled the policy of unified wheat seed supply for winter wheat, market competition was fierce, seed prices declined slightly, and the commercialization rate also fell accordingly. For next year's autumn and winter sowing, 11.03 million mu were arranged for wheat seed multiplication this season, 1 million mu less than last year, and seed output is expected to be 4.6 billion kilograms. The wheat planting area for next year's autumn and winter sowing is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and 4.6 billion kilograms of seed is expected to meet the seed demand for next year's autumn and winter wheat sowing.

Winter rapeseed

With new production plus inventory, rapeseed seed supply is expected to exceed demand next year.

⟧ Affected by the reduction in field planting area, sales in the national winter rapeseed seed market this season declined noticeably, but terminal retail seed prices did not fall sharply. This season, 120,000 mu were arranged nationwide for rapeseed seed production for next year's autumn and winter sowing, 40,000 mu less than last year, and seed output is expected to be 11.35 million kilograms. Among them, the seed production area for hybrid winter rapeseed was 90,000 mu, with expected output of 6.67 million kilograms; the seed multiplication area for conventional winter rapeseed was 30,000 mu, with expected output of 4.68 million kilograms. Under the new situation of lower winter rapeseed planting returns and a reduced sown area, commercial rapeseed seed use for next year's autumn and winter sowing is expected to be 13 million kilograms. Adding this year's 3 million kilograms of inventory, winter rapeseed seed supply is expected to exceed demand for next year's autumn and winter sowing.

Next year

Supply and demand account for seed of spring and summer sown crops

Corn seed

The degree of surplus will continue to ease. Spring seed prices are expected to be stable next year, while prices of better-performing medium- and late-maturing varieties will rise.

From the perspective of total supply, although effective ending seed inventory is still as high as 750 million kilograms, major corn seed production areas suffered sharp output reductions due to disasters this year, and newly produced seed was only 1.096 billion kilograms. Total corn seed supply for next year's spring and summer sowing will fall to 1.846 billion kilograms. From the perspective of next year's total demand, although this year's sharp reduction in corn purchase prices and the state's guidance for adjusting the corn planting structure in the “sickle bend” region and other factors will reduce the corn planting area somewhat, against the background of an overall decline in agricultural product prices, corn still has comparative advantages because it saves labor and time to grow and remains competitive in returns. Next year's planting area is unlikely to decline substantially, and seed use is expected to be 1.15-1.2 billion kilograms. The supply-demand index will fall to within 1.6, and ending inventory will fall back below the upper limit of a reasonable level. Spring corn seed market prices are expected to remain basically stable next year, but prices of individual medium- and late-maturing varieties that were more severely affected by disasters and perform well in the market will rise.

Hybrid rice

Seed supply and demand show structural differentiation. The oversupply of three-line hybrid rice seed remains severe, while supply and demand for two-line hybrid early rice are balanced.

In 2015, the hybrid rice seed market remained sluggish, and enterprises did their utmost to reduce inventory. Driven by increased seed production of newly approved varieties, the seed production area arranged this year increased slightly year on year. Newly harvested seed was 239 million kilograms, plus 100 million kilograms of effective inventory, so the hybrid rice seed market supply for next year

will total 339 million kilograms. The hybrid rice planting area in 2016 is expected to remain stable with a slight decline. Domestic seed use and exports will require about 250 million kilograms of seed, and total supply is sufficient. However, from the perspective of variety structure, the oversupply of three-line hybrid rice seed will remain severe next year, while two-line hybrid early rice seed has already reached a balance between supply and demand and may appear tightly balanced in Jiangxi and other places. Affected by the fact that the advantages of new hybrid rice varieties are not prominent and that high-quality new conventional rice varieties continue to expand their planting, the market price of early rice seed expected to be tightly balanced will not rise sharply; the pressure of oversupply in the middle rice seed market remains very great, and some enterprises, to avoid diverting seed to commercial use, may dump accumulated old varieties, and seed market prices are expected to decline.

Other crops

Seed supply and demand are balanced with a surplus, and the potato planting area is stabilizing and tending to increase.

The hybrid cotton planting area next year is expected to be 11 million mu and conventional cotton 39 million mu, requiring 4.2 million kilograms and 88 million kilograms of commercial seed respectively. This year's total supply of hybrid cotton and conventional cotton seed reached 4.78 million kilograms and 114.74 million kilograms respectively, and these cotton seeds can meet next year's production seed demand. The conventional rice planting area is expected to remain stable with a slight increase and will require 660 million kilograms of commercial seed. This year's newly produced seed is enough to guarantee next year's seed demand. The national soybean planting area next year is expected to be 92 million mu and will require 330 million kilograms of commercial seed. This year's newly produced seed can guarantee next year's commercial seed demand. Driven by state support for potato staple food products and industrial development, the potato planting area next year is expected to remain stable with a tendency to increase and will require 5.3 billion kilograms of commercial seed potatoes. This year's newly multiplied seed potatoes can meet next year's seed demand.