Domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later period

"The adjustment of China's domestic rapeseed purchase policy has a diversified impact on the market. After the cancellation of the temporary state reserve rapeseed purchase policy, the market supply of domestic rapeseed oil will increase relatively, the price gap between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will continue to remain at a low level, and domestic rapeseed oil consumption will also continue to increase," the analyst said.

In accordance with the spirit of the Several Opinions of the State Council on Establishing and Improving the Provincial Governor Responsibility System for Food Security, starting this year, local governments are responsible for organizing various enterprises to purchase rapeseed, which means the temporary state reserve rapeseed purchase policy has officially been withdrawn. With the change in the purchase policy, China's rapeseed purchase and sales market will also undergo tremendous changes. The changes are mainly reflected in five aspects:

First, affected by declining planting returns, China's rapeseed planting area and rapeseed output will show a continuous downward trend in the coming years.

Second, in the later period, the commercial volume and commercialization rate of domestic rapeseed may continue to decline. The non-GMO advantage of domestic rapeseed will gradually emerge, and there is a relatively high possibility that domestic rapeseed prices will gradually recover.

Third, domestic rapeseed processing enterprises will differentiate in the future. The number of rural oil pressing workshops and fragrant rapeseed oil production lines may continue to increase, and they will become the main force in domestic rapeseed processing; large rapeseed processing enterprises in the main producing areas will be forced to transform, and a large number of small and medium-sized rapeseed processing enterprises may go bankrupt and close down.

Fourth, as domestic rapeseed output continues to decline, demand for imported rapeseed will increase. In the coming years, rapeseed imports will remain at a relatively high level for a long time. However, affected by the difficulty of substantially increasing global rapeseed output and trade volume, international rapeseed prices will gain support, the crushing profit of imported rapeseed will be squeezed, and competition among imported rapeseed processing enterprises will become more intense.

Fifth, after the cancellation of the market-support purchase policy, supply and demand conditions will become the main factor determining rapeseed price changes. The degree of marketization of rapeseed prices will increase, the rapeseed futures market will become increasingly active, and the degree of market participation will continue to rise.

After the state cancels the temporary state reserve rapeseed purchase policy, how to handle the temporary state reserve rapeseed oil inventory has become the focus of market attention. Analysts say that enterprises in the industrial chain should pay close attention in the later period to changes in temporary state reserve rapeseed oil sales policies and price adjustments.

Affected by the difficulty of substantially increasing global rapeseed oil output and trade volume, as well as the continued inversion of domestic and international prices, China's rapeseed oil imports may remain at a relatively low level in the coming years.