Analysis of the Fisheries Economic Performance in the First Half of 2015

Since the beginning of this year, against the backdrop of increasing downward pressure on the macroeconomy, fisheries production has maintained a stable development trend, with active market transactions and ample supply, and the fisheries economy has achieved new development from a high starting point. At the same time, problems such as declining aquatic product prices, increasing export difficulties, and poor resource conditions have gradually become prominent, and maintaining stable and relatively rapid development of the fisheries economy for the whole year faces many challenges.

I. Basic Situation

(1) Fisheries production has remained stable, and the growth rate of the fisheries economy has exceeded that of agriculture. According to data from the semi-annual fisheries statistical report, in the first half of the year the national aquatic product output was 27.0009 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%, of which aquaculture output was 21.1438 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.13%, and capture output was 5.8571 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03%. According to another survey, in the first half of the year the total output of distant-water fisheries was 1.1126 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.00%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year the national fisheries output value was 415.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.91%; the fisheries added value was 226.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.92%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries.

(2) Market transactions were active, and prices were generally weak. According to monitoring, in the first half of the year transactions in the aquatic product wholesale market were relatively active, with market volume and turnover increasing by 7.32% and decreasing by 1.92% year on year respectively. Market prices continued the weak trend of the previous year, with the comprehensive average price falling slightly by 0.96% year on year, of which the comprehensive average price of marine products fell by 0.21% year on year, and the comprehensive average price of freshwater products fell by 1.92% year on year. Among the 49 monitored varieties, 18 varieties saw year-on-year price declines, 14 varieties saw prices basically flat, and 17 varieties saw year-on-year price increases. Although the overall price decline was not large, the simultaneous decline in the prices of both marine products and freshwater products was the first occurrence since 2009.

(3) Export volume rose while export value fell, and both import volume and import value fell. According to customs statistics, in the first half of the year the total import and export volume of aquatic products was 3.8308 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.48%, and the total import and export value was 13.728 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.67%. Among this, export volume was 1.8928 million tons and export value was 9.581 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.52% and a decrease of 2.39% respectively. Among the main export countries and regions, export value to ASEAN and Taiwan, China increased by 31.26% and 4.43% year on year respectively, while exports to Japan, the United States, the European Union, Hong Kong, China, and South Korea decreased by 1.37%, 2.49%, 5.04%, 18.94%, and 11.67% year on year respectively. Import volume was 1.9380 million tons and import value was 4.147 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14.84% and 9.57% respectively, of which fishmeal import volume and import value decreased by 43.06% and 20.80% year on year respectively. The trade surplus was 5.434 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.91%.

II. Main Characteristics

(1) Aquaculture profitability declined. Affected by factors such as the macroeconomic downturn and lower prices of livestock and poultry products, aquatic product prices were generally low in the first half of the year, especially the prices of major aquaculture varieties, which had a relatively obvious impact on aquaculture profitability. Apart from carp, whose price rebounded and whose aquaculture profitability was relatively good, the price of grass carp fell significantly and aquaculture was generally unprofitable; the prices of silver carp, bighead carp, and crucian carp also declined to varying degrees, and aquaculture barely broke even. For medium- and high-priced aquaculture varieties such as sea cucumber, river crab, and turbot, prices tended to stabilize after several years of deep adjustments. Although aquaculture profitability was not as good as in previous years, there was still profit. Shrimp prices retreated slightly from high levels, aquaculture diseases had not been effectively resolved, and risks remained relatively large. Marine shellfish aquaculture profitability was relatively good, and farmers generally showed relatively high enthusiasm for production.

(2) The resource situation and safety production situation were severe. Affected by factors such as the warm winter effect and falling diesel prices, fisheries capture production was relatively stable in the first half of the year, but the proportion of low-value catches was generally high, the size of economic species was relatively small, and the poor state of fisheries resources had not seen obvious improvement. In addition, severe typhoons and other disastrous weather occurred frequently, the safety production situation for fishing vessels was severe, and capture risks continued to increase.

⟦NL> (3) The international trade situation was not optimistic. The production situation of leading varieties was poor. Except for shellfish, the aquaculture of major export varieties faced difficulties to varying degrees. Among them, tilapia had few orders and low quotations, and enthusiasm for aquaculture declined. This year, seed stocking and fry stocking volumes decreased by 46.7% and 11.95% year on year respectively. The US FDA recently issued a warning about the quality and safety of tilapia products exported from China and strengthened product inspection, and subsequent risks in tilapia aquaculture and processing remained relatively large. Although diseases in shrimp aquaculture were somewhat controlled, the grow-out rate remained relatively low, raw shrimp prices remained high, and processing and export enterprises struggled to maintain operations. The quantity and price of eel seedlings fluctuated greatly, adult fish prices were constrained by the Japanese market, and there were relatively large uncertainties in industry development. Major export markets showed signs of shrinkage. Japan, the United States, Europe, and South Korea, as the world's most important aquatic product consumer markets and China's traditional export markets, all saw declines in China's exports to them to varying degrees. Although exports to ASEAN grew substantially, the export product forms were mainly primary frozen products, mostly used for processing in ASEAN and then re-exported, and the isomorphic competition between ASEAN countries and China's aquatic product processing industry further increased. Imports fell substantially. Fishmeal import volume and value both fell, and the import unit price rose substantially, bringing adverse effects on China's aquaculture. Imports of raw materials for processing with supplied materials and imported materials also fell by a relatively large margin, and subsequent growth in processing trade with supplied materials and imported materials lacked momentum. In addition, although the state increased efforts in crackdowns and governance, aquatic product import smuggling still occurred repeatedly, causing losses to national tax revenue, harming consumer rights, and disrupting market order.

(4) Industrial transformation and upgrading advanced rapidly. Facing the new situation, local governments and enterprises took the initiative to change methods and adjust structure, carried out many beneficial explorations, and achieved relatively good economic and social benefits. For example, in order to ease the downward pressure on river crab prices, Jiangsu Province and Hubei Province vigorously explored and promoted ecological models of multi-variety mixed and sequential aquaculture, increased brand promotion and e-commerce marketing efforts, effectively controlled production costs, and reduced market risks. Zetan Fishery Professional Cooperative in Tushan Town, Laizhou City, Shandong Province, continuously strengthened exploration of fisheries production and operation models, organically combined marine aquaculture and enhancement with resource and environmental protection, realized large-scale and ecological production, organized and information-based management, and market-oriented and branded operations, providing a "Zetan model" of typical reference significance for the transformation and upgrading of fisheries nationwide. In addition, more and more provinces began to pay attention to applying new information technologies to boost fisheries development, actively trying applications of informationization achievements such as the Internet of Things, e-commerce, big data, and cloud platforms in modern fisheries production, operation, and management, and actively opening up a new development pattern of "Internet + modern fisheries."

III. Forecast of the Whole-Year Situation

This year the Ministry of Agriculture continuously increased efforts to clean up and rectify "juéhù wǎng" and "three-no" vessels involved in fishing, and work on fisheries resource environmental protection and ecological restoration advanced in an orderly manner, with capture management becoming more standardized. However, given that the resource situation is unlikely to improve significantly in a short time, it is expected that annual fisheries capture output will remain basically stable or decline slightly. The profitability of major freshwater fish aquaculture declined, but due to the large volume and difficulty of transformation, seedling stocking continued to maintain a steady but increasing trend, and annual output is expected to still increase somewhat. For precious marine products, production bid farewell to the era of huge profits, prices tended to be rational, and production tended to be orderly; output is expected to be flat to slightly higher than the previous year. For other varieties, prices fluctuated up and down, production was generally stable, and output is expected to increase slightly while remaining stable.

In summary, it is expected that annual aquatic product output will still maintain the basic trend of steady but slight increase, prices will recover slightly but overall will still maintain a weak trend, international trade will face relatively large difficulties, and total annual trade volume may decline. When facing difficult situations, some localities and enterprises pressed forward despite difficulties, sought innovation and change in aspects such as strengthening production management, focusing on brand building, creating a consumption culture, and innovating business channels, achieved relatively good economic and social benefits, and provided new impetus for the transformation and upgrading of traditional fisheries toward modern fisheries.