The domestic fur market situation is not optimistic this year

There are too many uncertain factors affecting the development of the domestic fur market situation, for example, the most obvious ones last year were the depreciation of the Russian ruble leading to a decline in purchasing power, plus last year's warm winter and so on. Regardless of the influencing factors, they all revolve around the most important market element——the relationship between supply and demand. There are too many types of fur, affected by the macroeconomy, fashion trends, inventory levels, demand, weather, psychological expectations and so on, only with different weights.

At present, whether it is domestic rabbit skin or its processed semi-finished mattress pieces (including whole skins and material ones), prices have fallen to the lowest since 2009, and the sales of rabbit skin products are also poor, let alone the higher-grade mink skins.

In the first half of this year, with no other uncertain factors added, the market situation for domestic rabbit skin is not optimistic, resulting in very few people doing domestic rabbit skin business this year, or those holding a wait-and-see attitude starting work late. Although there is now inventory in the market, the situation is relatively poor and will not create a phenomenon of excessive supply. In addition, what also needs attention this year is the constraint of environmental protection on the fur market. The impact of environmental protection factors on the fur market is "supportive," stabilizing and raising prices. Because it directly causes a short-term reduction in supply. The rise in raccoon dog skin prices during the same period last year is related to this.

This year environmental protection requirements will be even stricter. If rabbit skin processors continue to decrease, even if the market situation is poor, it will still play a certain stabilizing role. As for how long, this will require the joint game of people's psychological expectations and market demand conditions. The most obvious impact among this is that processors are having a hard time: raw skin prices remain stable and do not fall, while finished mattress pieces have no demand, so their profit margin is limited. When business is poor, this new trend often appears in these two years: raw skin raw material prices and tanned finished products are out of proportion, and this is also one of the characteristics under the new situation.

In addition, there is not much inventory in the southern market, and the probability of purchasing goods is relatively high. Of course, some people will hold stock. Based on this analysis, material mattress pieces are very likely to show a stable market situation, and may even rise in the short term.

It is reported that middlemen have relatively little tanned skin inventory at the end of the year, so the current price of skinning at the lower end is firmer or rising. In addition, among those joining the raccoon dog ranks, there is also an inflow of funds from fox and mink practitioners, so for raccoon dogs, speculative excess is increasing, relationships and influences are complex, and it is hard to judge. Of course, risk will also increase.

Because it was a warm winter, the sales of down jackets using raccoon dog fur strips and fur collars last year were poor, and when collecting debts at the end of the year, difficulties in debt collection also appeared. At present, no orders have been heard of.