Northeast corn holds steady, imports rise markedly

This month, Northeast corn was basically stable. According to market information, by the end of the month the ex-warehouse price of standard-grade corn was mostly 2150-2200 yuan/tonne in Heilongjiang, mostly 2250-2280 yuan/tonne in Jilin, and 2280-2300 yuan/tonne in Liaoning.

Analysis shows that in July, bullish and bearish factors for corn in the Northeast region were intertwined, which was the main reason the market remained stable. On the bearish side, amid rumours of adjustments to the temporary storage policy, trading enterprises stepped up their pace of releasing grain from warehouses, and at the same time reserve rotation at various levels got under way one after another, which also increased market liquidity; on the bullish side, the ongoing drought in Liaoning and Jilin raised expectations of reduced output, and earlier purchasing had left farmers with little grain in hand, while deep-processing enterprises in Heilongjiang, boosted by large subsidies, slightly recovered their willingness to buy grain, and at the same time the rapid rise in corn prices at southern ports also shored up the market in the Northeast region.

North China market weakens within a stable trend

In July, the corn market in North China generally remained stable. During the period, Shandong saw localized price rises because enterprises' own inventories declined and the volume circulating in the market was slightly smaller, but as a series of bearish factors emerged, corn prices in North China continued to run weaker. According to market information, at the end of the month the mainstream purchase price of corn in North China was 2180-2260 yuan/tonne.

Northern and southern ports pull back from highs

This month, northern and southern ports went through a short-lived rally. In the middle of the month, because of the huge volumes of imported barley and sorghum at southern ports, corn stocks at southern ports were severely insufficient, and since northern ports had all along been in a phase of drawing down inventories, arrivals at the ports decreased, causing corn prices at southern ports to rise rapidly and driving northern ports up along with them. By the end of the month, as the volume of grain gathered at northern ports expanded and was shipped to the south, the closing price at southern ports edged down slightly. At the end of the month, the closing price of corn at northern ports was mostly 2350-2400 yuan/tonne, while prices at southern ports were mostly 2510-2530 yuan/tonne.

Deep-processing industry struggles to improve

This month, the corn deep-processing industry showed little improvement. Although deep-processing subsidies covered part of enterprises' losses and raw material prices remained basically stable, weak downstream demand made it harder to raise ex-factory prices for starch and alcohol, which also held back enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding production. The unclear course of the macroeconomic situation led most enterprises to cut their inventory levels to below medium.

Corn imports rise markedly

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in June China imported 873,000 tonnes of corn, an increase of 846,000 tonnes year on year and 469,000 tonnes month on month. From January to June, China imported a cumulative 2.65 million tonnes of corn, already exceeding last year's full-year import volume by 21,000 tonnes. In June, China exported 360 tonnes of corn, an increase of 200 tonnes year on year and a decrease of 220 tonnes month on month. From January to June, China exported a cumulative 6,990 tonnes of corn.