The total national wheat output in 2015 is expected to be about 231 billion jin

In 2015 the state continued to implement the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in the main producing areas, which helped stabilize farmers' expectations for grain-growing income, but affected by constraints on arable land and water resources, the progress of land transfer, and economic development and construction, the wheat sown area in some main producing areas showed a slight downward trend. Based on surveys from various parties, the national winter wheat sown area is expected to be 339 million mu. Because most of the weather during the wheat growing period was favorable, the total national wheat output in 2015 is expected to increase slightly, with a preliminary estimate of about 231 billion jin for 2015. Because rainy weather occurred in some main producing areas during the wheat harvest and market period from late May to early June, the quality of some wheat was affected to a certain extent. In particular, the proportion of unsound kernels was relatively high in many areas of Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei, as well as in southern Henan.

Domestic wheat consumption in 2015/16 is expected to remain basically stable. Among this, demand for food grain will continue to show rigid growth as the population increases, but the growth rate will further slow; under the influence of factors such as the still sluggish breeding industry and relatively high corn inventory levels, the advantage of wheat replacing corn for feed use has declined, and wheat feed consumption is expected to decrease during the year. Overall, domestic wheat consumption in 2015/16 is expected to be about 229.7 billion jin.

Although imported wheat is still expected to have a cost-performance advantage later on, under the influence of the current international political and economic situation and import and export policies, China's commercial wheat imports in 2015/16 are expected to be limited, at about 4 billion jin.

Overall, because the quantity of wheat used for feed in 2015/16 will decline, the new supply-demand surplus for wheat will be about 4.5 billion jin, and the supply-demand relationship will continue to improve.