How Does the Citizenization of Migrant Workers Affect China's Food Supply and Demand
At present, China is in the period of transition from the mid-stage to the late stage of industrialization and of accelerated urbanization, and faces the major task of ensuring national food security and the effective supply of major agricultural products. Since 2004, China's grain production has achieved the great feat of “eleven consecutive years of increase,” but according to estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture, the self-sufficiency rate of grain, including soybeans, fell from 100% in 2003 to 91% in 2011, making the “tight balance” between supply and demand even more prominent.
The citizenization of migrant workers is an important factor affecting food consumption. In the process of rural labor transferring to cities and towns and becoming urban citizens, not only does their position in the food system supply chain undergo a fundamental change, from food producers and suppliers to consumers and demanders, but also, as their employment and income levels in cities and towns rise, their consumption habits and consumption patterns undergo major changes, and the quantity and structure of their food consumption change accordingly. Therefore, the current 263 million migrant workers, especially the 163 million rural migrant workers who work away from home, a number equivalent to the combined population of Japan and Canada, are the biggest “variable” affecting China's food supply and demand, and it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the impact of rural labor transfer and citizenization on food security.
How large is the impact of the citizenization of migrant workers on food consumption
From the perspective of China's rural labor transfer model, the citizenization of migrant workers is divided into two stages: finding employment in cities and changing household registration, and the mechanisms by which different stages affect food consumption also differ. The first stage is the impact on food security of changes in food consumption before and after migrant workers enter cities, mainly attributable to changes in dietary consumption habits caused by regional movement, as well as the change from self-sufficient food consumption to commercial food consumption; the second stage is the impact on food security of changes in food consumption before and after obtaining urban household registration, mainly attributable to changes in food consumption structure caused by changes in social welfare brought about by urban household registration.
1. The impact of rural labor entering cities on food consumption. In order to directly analyze changes in food consumption after migrant workers enter cities, the research team conducted a questionnaire survey in the summer of 2013 of 744 farming households in 70 villages in 4 provinces and municipalities, namely Beijing, Jilin, Zhejiang and Chongqing, to understand migrant workers' subjective judgments about food consumption and the extent of change in their self-estimates. The research results show that after migrant workers enter cities, the consumption of some foods will increase. First, among grain products, consumption of rice and other grains decreases noticeably, but consumption of flour and instant noodles increases. Among these, rice consumption decreases by 4%, other grains decrease by 14.4%, flour increases by 2.9%, and instant noodles increase by 24.4%. Second, consumption of animal fat decreases sharply, while consumption of vegetable oil increases. Animal fat consumption decreases by 41.6%, and vegetable oil consumption increases by 15.4%. Third, consumption of animal products and vegetables and fruits all increases to varying degrees, with dairy showing the largest increase. Dairy consumption will increase by 42.5% after migrant workers enter cities, while meat and egg consumption increase by 14% and 12.7% respectively.
2. The impact of migrant workers settling in cities and towns on food consumption. Because it is difficult to obtain food consumption data for the same migrant workers before and after obtaining urban household registration, the research team conducted a “counter-factual experiment” based on the urban resident household survey data of the Urban Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics.
The research results show that after migrant workers settle in cities and towns, consumption of all types of food increases noticeably. First, the increase in consumption of rice, flour and edible oils is relatively small. Rice, flour and other grains will increase by 12.6%, 13.1% and 31.1%, and vegetable oil and animal fat increase by 10% and 20.8% respectively. Second, the increase in consumption of livestock products, especially dairy, is very obvious. After migrant workers obtain urban household registration, consumption of meat and eggs rises by 26.8% and 16.7% respectively, and the increase in dairy consumption is as high as 35.3%. Third, consumption of vegetables and fruits also increases significantly. Per capita consumption of vegetables and fruits rises by 23.2%.
Considering that food consumption habits differ considerably among different income groups, the sample of migrant workers was further divided into five tiers by per capita disposable income, and the propensity score matching method was also used to estimate and analyze differences in food consumption before and after obtaining urban household registration. The research results show that as income levels rise, rice consumption may decrease, while consumption of flour and other grains will increase; there is considerable room for growth in demand for livestock products among migrant workers at all income levels; changes in income levels have little impact on consumption of ordinary edible oil; and demand for vegetables and fruits among migrant workers at different income levels will all increase to some extent.
Overall, throughout the entire process of citizenization of migrant workers, per capita food consumption is increasing, but at different stages and for different categories of food it shows obvious structural characteristics. The foods requiring the greatest attention in the first stage are dairy, vegetables and fruits, vegetable oil and meat; the foods requiring the greatest attention in the second stage are dairy, other grains, meat and vegetables and fruits. Both stages of the citizenization of migrant workers are accompanied by an expansion of food demand, indicating that ensuring China's food security and the effective supply of major agricultural products faces long-term, sustained challenges.
Why does the citizenization of migrant workers affect food consumption
The research team used a multi-level linear mixed model to analyze the factors affecting changes in food consumption before and after migrant workers enter cities, and used a multi-level linear mixed model to analyze changes in food before and after migrant workers obtain urban household registration.
The research results show that, whether before or after entering cities or before or after obtaining household registration, changes in income are an important factor affecting migrant workers' food consumption. In practice, however, the employment and income stability of migrant workers is very poor; whenever there is macroeconomic fluctuation, migrant workers are the group most easily affected, and the 2008 financial crisis caused about 20 million migrant workers to return to their home villages. Therefore, migrant workers are a sensitive group for food security and should be treated as a key target and object of urban food security protection.
How to respond to the challenge posed by the citizenization of migrant workers to food security
⟧ 1. Always treat ensuring food security as an important part of the new urbanization strategy. In the process of citizenization of 263 million migrant workers, not only will food demand increase before and after entering cities, but the change of household registration will also increase food demand. The two-stage increase in food demand caused by the citizenization of migrant workers is rigid and irreversible, and the pressure this puts on urban food prices will become greater and greater. Once food price increases greatly exceed income growth, it may threaten the basic food and clothing of low-income groups, and the risks arising from this deserve great attention. Therefore, ensuring food security should be made the foundation and foothold of the new urbanization strategy, and urbanization and agricultural modernization should be promoted in tandem to consolidate the foundational support of the new urbanization strategy.
2. Build a supply system adapted to changes in food demand during the citizenization of migrant workers. From the perspective of ensuring food security, in the context of advancing urban-rural integration, urban areas should, in accordance with the characteristics of changes in the food consumption structure of migrant workers at different stages of citizenization, further implement the “rice bag” provincial governor responsibility system and the “vegetable basket” mayor responsibility system, strengthen and consolidate the “vegetable basket project” and the construction of food supply bases in urban areas, improve the circulation and reserve links for major foods, strengthen in a targeted way the effective supply of livestock products, edible oil, vegetables and fruits, formulate emergency plans and related measures to effectively respond to soaring prices, and incorporate them into the legal system in the form of local regulations.
3. Establish a food security safeguard mechanism targeting different stages of the citizenization of migrant workers. For migrant workers who have just entered cities and towns to work, attention should be paid to the effective supply and accessibility of food, and consideration could be given to setting up service centers for migrant workers and the like to provide temporary food and accommodation support for migrant workers who have come to the city but have not yet found work; for migrant workers who have obtained urban household registration, attention should be paid to the sustainable food acquisition capacity of low-income groups, and for families in difficulty, effective food security measures such as “meal vouchers” should be gradually established to ensure urban and rural social stability.
4. Improve and perfect the survey and monitoring system for the food consumption of migrant workers. Compared with changes in food demand caused by population growth and upgrading of the consumption structure, changes in food demand caused by the citizenization of migrant workers have an equally significant impact but are more difficult to observe and identify. From the perspective of ensuring agricultural industry security, national food security, and social and political security, it is necessary to carry out regular monitoring of the food consumption structure and influencing factors of migrant workers at different stages, grasp new trends in changes in migrant workers' food consumption, and provide a decision-making basis for the state to formulate targeted countermeasures.