Global agricultural products will see increased production and lower prices in the next decade

STAFF REPORTER Reporter Chen Jian and Zhang Wei report: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recently released the latest Agricultural Outlook report, stating that factors such as increased crop yields, enhanced productivity and slowing growth in global demand will help agricultural products real prices gradually decline over the next 10 years.

This report, titled "OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015—2024", predicts that compared with the previous 10 years, the growth rate of agricultural trade will slow, and its share of global production and consumption will remain basically stable. The report expects that demand for food in developing countries will undergo major changes. Because with the continuous expansion of population, per capita income and urbanisation, demand for food will also increase. Rising incomes will further diversify consumer diets, especially increasing consumption of animal protein relative to starchy foods.

According to the report, by 2024, global fishery production is expected to expand by nearly 20%; in 2023, aquaculture is expected to surpass total capture fishery production. The report points out that falling oil prices will lower energy and fertiliser costs, and will no longer encourage the use of food crops to produce first-generation biofuels, thereby pushing food prices down. The report believes that in the next 10 years, the growth rate of ethanol and biodiesel use is expected to slow. Given lower oil prices, the share of biofuel trade in global production will remain at a low level.