Meat consumption has risen by one step every ten years, and the shortfall will reach 10 million tons in 2020

Li Shuilong, executive president of the China Meat Association, clearly pointed out that it is expected that by 2020 China's annual meat output will be 90 million tons, and there will be a supply-demand gap of about 10 million tons that must be made up through imports.

At the China-Spain meat enterprise business meeting, Li Shuilong, executive president of the China Meat Association, particularly made clear that by 2020, China's total meat output will have a supply-demand gap of 8 million to 10 million tons, which must be made up through imports. Through a set of figures, Li Shuilong summarized the development trajectory and international position of China's meat industry, explained the impact of China's huge population base on per capita meat availability, and predicted the supply-demand situation of China's meat market and the development trend of meat imports over the next 5 years.

More than 20 years: the world's largest meat producer and consumer

Li Shuilong pointed out that since the early 1990s, China has consistently been the world's largest meat producer and consumer. In 2014, China's total meat output reached 87.07 million tons, accounting for about 28.3% of the world's total meat output of 307 million tons. Among this, pork output was 56.71 million tons, accounting for about 48.5% of the world's pork output of 116 million tons; beef output was 6.89 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the world's beef output of 68 million tons; mutton output was 4.28 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the world's mutton output of 14 million tons; poultry meat output was 17.51 million tons, accounting for about 16.2% of the world's poultry meat output of 107 million tons.

In terms of total output, China's pork and mutton output both rank first in the world, poultry meat output ranks second in the world (first is the United States with 20.23 million tons), and beef output ranks third in the world (first is the United States with 10.99 million tons, second is Brazil with 10.19 million tons).

Li Shuilong said that China is also the world's most populous country, with a total population of 1.368 billion in 2014, 28.9 times that of Spain's 47.4 million. Li Shuilong emphasized that no matter how high the output is, when divided by the total population, the per capita amount becomes very small. At present, China's per capita annual meat availability is only 63.6 kg, including 41.5 kg of pork, 5.03 kg of beef, 3.12 kg of mutton, and 12.8 kg of poultry meat. Compared with Spain's 2014 per capita annual availability of 52.8 kg of pork, about 16 kg of beef, 2 kg of mutton, and 30.2 kg of poultry meat, the gap is very large. Li Shuilong particularly pointed out that the gaps in beef and poultry meat are even larger.

Over 30 years: one step forward every 10 years

⟦NL> Li Shuilong analyzed and concluded that, looking at China's meat consumption over the past 30 years, it has moved up one step every 10 years. From 1985 to 1995, annual per capita meat consumption increased from 16.6 kg to 33.5 kg, an increase of 17 kg over 10 years; from 1995 to 2005, annual per capita meat consumption increased from 33.5 kg to 59.2 kg, an increase of another 25.7 kg over 10 years; from 2005 to 2014, annual per capita meat consumption increased from 59.2 kg to 63.6 kg, an increase of 4.4 kg over 9 years, with growth clearly slowing.

By 2020: a supply-demand gap of about 10 million tons

Li Shuilong clearly pointed out that in the next 5 years, the development potential of China's meat market is very large. Forecasts show that by 2020 China's total population will be about 1.45 billion. Calculated at an annual per capita meat consumption of 69 kg, meat output should reach 100 million tons, an increase of 12.93 million tons over 2014, or a growth rate of 14.8%. According to recent related research results, constrained by China's resources and environmental factors, achieving this target is relatively difficult. Li Shuilong particularly emphasized that by 2020, China's total annual meat output is expected to reach only 90 million to 92 million tons, and there will be a supply-demand gap of 8 million to 10 million tons that must be made up through imports. This also means that the potential for trade and cooperation with China's meat industry is huge.