How can agricultural development advance toward the mid-to-high end?
Currently, China's economic development has entered a new normal, and the agricultural sector has also seen some new stage-specific features and trend-based changes, ushering in a new period of strategic opportunity for accelerating agricultural modernization. To adapt to the needs of economic and social development and the inherent requirements of modern agricultural development, we must gain a deeper understanding of the impact of the new normal in economic development, accurately grasp the direction of new changes in agricultural development, go with the trend and take proactive action, intensify reform and innovation, and lead China's agriculture toward the mid-to-high end with more comprehensive functions, more advanced forms, deeper division of labor, a more reasonable structure and sustainable development.
Gain a deeper understanding of the supply-demand relationship of agricultural products, adjust and optimize the agricultural structure, and establish a production system for agricultural products that is compatible with the consumption system and gives equal weight to low-, mid- and high-end products
To maintain steady and healthy economic and social development, build a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020, and reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2050, both reality and our goals require us to continue increasing farmers' incomes. In recent years, farmers' incomes have grown relatively fast, but to continue maintaining rapid growth we face many uncertain factors. The growth rate of wage income may slow down, the room for growth in household business income tends to narrow, and the growth trends of transfer income and property income look promising but contribute limitedly to the overall income level. Due to the effects of population growth and changes in the urban-rural structure, the effects of industrial transformation and upgrading and changes in the economic structure, and the effects of rising resident income levels and changes in expenditure structure, structural shortages and surpluses in the supply of agricultural products will coexist for a long time in the coming decades, and the rigid growth of basic demand for agricultural products and the enhanced elasticity of structured demand will coexist for a long time. This poses challenges to tapping the income-increasing potential within agriculture, but also provides opportunities.
To adapt to these changes, we should be guided by effectively meeting market demand, focus on continuously increasing farmers' incomes, pay more attention to the realization of the value of agricultural products, reduce resource waste caused by mismatches between production and sales, and, while ensuring the effective supply of grain and other important agricultural products, vigorously develop the production of agricultural products with high income and consumption elasticity and great market demand potential. Adjust the industrial structure, promote the coordinated development of grain and cash crops, the integration of farming and animal husbandry, and the integrated development of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, accelerate the development of graded processing, cold-chain logistics and terminal distribution of agricultural products, and make the industrial form fuller, its connotations richer and incomes more substantial. Optimize the product structure, strengthen the development of high-value-added products, expand input of soft factors such as knowledge, information and creativity, promote the improvement of quality, greening, specialization, branding and consumption convenience of agricultural products, meet diversified, multi-type and multi-level consumer demand in a targeted way, and guide the consumption of agricultural products to progress gradually from safety to quality, nutrition and health.
Gain a deeper understanding of the way agricultural resources are allocated, fully leverage the leverage role of fiscal input and the foundational role of social input, and form an investment pattern compatible with modern agricultural development
Modern agriculture is inevitably a highly capital-intensive industry; raising labor productivity and land output rates is inseparable from continuously increasing capital input. China's agricultural foundation is weak, and investment demand is broad and enormous, forming a sharp contrast with social capital having money but nowhere to invest. Now, this investment “depression” is producing a “depression effect,” with various types of capital outside the agricultural sector accelerating their entry. This is an important trend that should be watched closely. From the current situation, expanding the scale of agricultural investment is not only beneficial to agricultural modernization but also to the entire economic and social development, and we should seize the opportunity to further accelerate reform and innovation of agricultural investment and financing systems and mechanisms.
First, we must overcome one-sidedness in thinking and concepts. We should see not only the fact that the rate of return on agricultural investment is relatively low, but also the characteristics of agricultural investment such as good stability of returns, and no longer simply regard agriculture as a public industry where investment is only the government's responsibility. In terms of approaches and measures, explore ways to separate the social benefits and economic benefits of agriculture, focus on improving input efficiency on the basis of increasing fiscal input, strengthen the leverage role in mobilizing social capital, and improve supporting mechanisms that drive financial and insurance input; actively create an agricultural investment environment, broaden agricultural investment channels, innovate multiple financing methods such as bonds and funds, vigorously develop rural cooperative finance, use internet finance, explore differentiated policies for effectively pooling mass capital, utilizing industrial and commercial capital and managing and controlling international capital, explore and innovate government-social capital cooperation and internet crowdfunding models in the agricultural sector, and guide and encourage social capital to participate in the entire pre-production, mid-production and post-production process of agriculture (including infrastructure construction).
Gain a deeper understanding of the agricultural employment landscape, vigorously develop agricultural producer services, and accelerate the building of a modern agricultural industrial system
As the national economy slows down, its structure optimizes and its drivers shift, new employment opportunities will continue to be provided, enabling high-quality agricultural labor to continue to transfer out, while at the same time leading to the normalization of frictional unemployment. The phenomena of agricultural labor going out for employment and returning home to start businesses or find re-employment will coexist for a long time, and the new dual structure of farmers being amphibious between urban and rural areas and concurrently engaged in industry and agriculture tends to become widespread. On the one hand, under the situation of deepening rural reform, accelerating land transfer and the new generation of migrant workers gradually becoming the main body, farmers' expectations of land appreciation are continuously rising and strengthening, and the separation of land contract rights and management rights has become a more efficient institutional arrangement. Many returning migrant workers do not want to farm, do not know how to farm, or are unable to farm, and traditional farming and animal husbandry can hardly continue to serve as a reservoir for labor employment. On the other hand, having experienced urban life and industrial and commercial work, returning migrant workers have broadened their horizons, gained experience, accumulated connections and also have certain capital, making them important human resources for developing agricultural producer services.
Agricultural modernization requires the professionalization and socialization of agricultural production services. We should broadly open up new employment space outside the primary industry and build a complete agricultural industrial system that runs through the industrial chain, supply chain and value chain. From the perspective of giving play to the advantages of rural human resources, especially returning migrant workers, we should currently focus on developing those agricultural producer services with strong employment absorption capacity. Seize the favorable opportunity of the vigorous development of the internet economy, develop agricultural information services and agricultural e-commerce, and promote production-sales linkage and online transactions. Follow the trend of the rapid extension of the logistics industry into rural areas, develop various forms of service stations, and improve the distribution system for agricultural production materials and agricultural products. Closely tied to the urgent needs of modern agricultural construction, increase support for socialized services in pest and disease control, soil testing and formulated fertilization, agricultural machinery operation and maintenance, and packaging design of agricultural products. Further strengthen infrastructure construction in rural transportation, information and markets, and simultaneously solve the “last kilometer” problem of market information and the “first kilometer” problem of product logistics; strengthen public-benefit training in service skills to help returning migrant workers improve in a targeted way their quality and ability for employment and entrepreneurship; and guide, in light of local conditions, the clustering of producer services in agricultural industry bases to promote the coordinated development of agricultural modernization and new urbanization.
Gain a deeper understanding of the global pattern of agricultural product trade and agricultural resource development, better grasp strategic initiative, and build a new win-win mechanism for trade and development partners
In recent years, the internal requirements and external conditions for China's agriculture to “go global” and “bring in” have undergone profound changes. First, using 10% of the world's arable land and 6% of its fresh water to feed and feed well 20% of the population, the pressure on resources and the environment is increasing daily. Second, agricultural production costs are rising, the price competitiveness of agricultural products is declining, and trade comparative advantages are diminishing. Third, the world economy is generally showing a slow recovery, the trade and development order is being rebuilt amid adjustment, and the internationalization of agricultural product trade and the globalization of agricultural resource development continue to deepen. Fourth, China's comprehensive national strength has greatly increased, its international status has risen substantially, and its discourse power in international relations and the international order has notably increased. Fifth, concepts and initiatives such as the “Belt and Road” have aroused enthusiastic responses, and the strategic layout for pulling and leading the world economy is unfolding in an orderly manner. Sixth, more and more enterprises are investing in overseas agricultural resource development, and a development base is gradually taking shape.
Against this background, it is both necessary and possible to expand the room for maneuver in China's agricultural development, improve the import and export structure of agricultural products, and develop more global agricultural resources. We should enhance initiative and strategic awareness. While striving to improve the international market competitiveness of China's agricultural products, we should strengthen the concept of opportunity cost in farming, rationally arrange the priority order of domestic agricultural production, comprehensively consider the needs of reducing pressure on resources and the environment and safeguarding industrial security, and promptly plan and advance the global layout of agricultural diplomacy and economic cooperation. Better leverage the effects of a major country, make full use of China's market potential, technological capacity, capital strength and international influence, strive to expand the scale of agriculture “going global,” appropriately expand imports of agricultural products, and build a coordinated, stable and efficient coupling relationship between domestic resources and international markets and between international resources and the domestic market, so as to achieve win-win outcomes for trade and development partners.
Gain a deeper understanding of the multiple functions of agriculture, make simultaneous efforts in minimizing negative externalities and valorizing positive externalities, and promote the industrialization of agricultural ecology
Agriculture has multiple functions, and the ecological function is an important aspect. Over the past few decades, excessive development of resources, improper use of chemical inputs and unreasonable production methods have amplified agriculture's carbon source effect. Now, the environmental carrying capacity has reached or is close to its upper limit, and the people's demand for ecological products such as fresh air, clear water and a clean environment is becoming more and more urgent. In line with the people's concerns, strengthening agriculture's ecological function, expanding the supply of ecological products, giving play to agriculture's ecological benefits, and forming a new green, low-carbon and environmentally friendly mode of agricultural development face unprecedented historical opportunities.
Sustainable development must be guaranteed by sustainable mechanisms. We should continue to strengthen the social compensation mechanism for the positive externalities of agricultural ecology, with the focus on strengthening government guidance and support, persisting in treating non-point source pollution, increasing energy conservation and emission reduction, promoting circular production methods, advancing the rational use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural films, and strengthening the effective utilization of crop straw and livestock and poultry manure. We should strive to establish an environmental protection responsibility system for large-scale production and operation entities, promote the privatization of social costs and the internalization of externalities, implement mandatory limits on pollution volumes and market trading of emission rights, and make polluters and emitters pay. We should actively explore paths for realizing the economic value of positive externalities, vigorously develop sightseeing, tourism and leisure agriculture, make green mountains and clear waters become mountains of gold and silver, and promote the effective supply of agricultural ecological products through economic mechanisms.
To promote agricultural development toward the mid-to-high end, the fundamental point is to let the market play a decisive role in allocating resources, but based on national conditions and agricultural conditions, the government must at the same time play a better role. Strengthen support for agriculture, continue to increase fiscal input, improve the price formation mechanism for agricultural products, improve agricultural subsidy methods, establish and improve the ecological benefit compensation mechanism, advance innovation in the rural land system, property rights system and management system, promote the development of land transfer and financial and insurance markets, and vigorously strengthen training for new types of business entities and new-type professional farmers. Strengthen protection for agriculture, pay close attention to risk factors in agricultural development, and effectively prevent and control industrial risks brought by domestic and international cost and price competition in agricultural products, market risks caused by agricultural product quality and safety incidents, risks of de-grainization and de-agriculturalization in land transfer, and risks from agricultural financing and inflows of foreign capital.