How Big Is El Niño's Impact on Seed Production? Interpreting the Latest Survey Findings
Recently, claims like this have been circulating online: this year's El Niño phenomenon has severely affected seed production in the north, with seed production yields in Gansu and especially many places in Xinjiang being low or even failing completely, and the large-scale reduction in northern seed production will lead to a substantial increase in seed prices next year. Is this really the case? Reporters interviewed the seed management departments of Xinjiang and Zhangye, Gansu, and large and medium-sized seed enterprises in Heilongjiang, asking them to provide the true situation of this year's seed production.
Gansu
The supply of major varieties is trending upward; although yields have decreased, supply has not decreased.
According to Su Jiandong, deputy director of the Zhangye Agriculture Bureau in Gansu in charge of seeds, in 2015 Zhangye's corn seed production area was 971,800 mu, involving 59 corn seed production companies and 529 variety combinations. In mid-to-late July, El Niño weather affected the normal pollination of mid- and late-maturing varieties (combinations) to varying degrees, and pests and diseases occurred widely in corn seed production fields, with an expected average yield reduction of more than 25% per mu.
Zhang Wenbo of the Zhangye Seed Management Bureau explained in detail how El Niño affected seed production yields. He said that mid-to-late July is precisely the critical period for tasseling and pollination; the El Niño phenomenon reduced the pollen vitality of the male parent in seed production corn fields, and the female parent's silks dried out and desiccated, affecting pollination and seed set, with bald tips and poor heading being relatively serious in corn ears. Of the city's 59 corn seed production enterprises, 54 were affected to varying degrees; 283 corn hybrid seed production varieties (combinations) were more seriously affected, covering an area of 383,900 mu. Compared with a normal year (average yield 450 kg), an average yield reduction of 105 kg per mu was expected, a decrease of 23.3%. Of the city's 971,800 mu of corn seed production, an average yield reduction of 41.4 kg per mu was expected, a decrease of 9.2%, with an estimated reduction of about 40.2325 million kg. In terms of pests and diseases, at corn seed production bases, corn rust, red spiders and other pests and diseases affected the normal growth of plants, premature aging appeared in corn seed production, with an expected reduction of more than 15%, an average yield reduction of about 67.5 kg per mu, and a total output reduction of 65.5965 million kg.
Even so, Zhangye's seed supply to the whole country is still expected to reach 460.2465 million kg. According to surveys, this year's seed production output is about 327.8925 million kg, and as of the end of June the city's seed inventory was 132.264 million kg; adding the two together, the seed supply quantity still exceeds the normal annual seed output of 450 million kg.
More importantly, this year the seed production area of major varieties (combinations) such as Zhengdan 958, Jingke 968, Liyu 16 and Liyu 88 more than doubled compared with previous years, while the production areas of Longping 206 and Xianyu 335 were both on par with previous years, and both had a certain amount of inventory. As far as Zhangye is concerned, the supply of major varieties is trending upward; although yields have decreased, the supply of major varieties has not decreased. As for seed supply prices, because late-maturing minor varieties (combinations) planted in specific regions were more seriously affected, a structural shortage is expected, and prices will rise to a certain extent.
Xinjiang
Next year's seed market will not see a shortage of seed quantity or a serious price surge.
The reporter connected with the Xinjiang Seed Management General Station and learned that: seed production yields were affected, but not as seriously as said online.
From mid-July to early August this year, high temperatures of 40°C or even above 45°C lasted for 20 days in the Xinjiang region. In such high-temperature weather, pollen vitality is low; in the Xinjiang region, the area with a 15% yield reduction is expected to account for 50%, the area with a 30% yield reduction about 40%, and the area with total crop failure less than 5%. Although yields are below normal years, the specific situation is still relatively optimistic. On the one hand, Xinjiang has a seed inventory basically stable at 190,000 tons each year. On the other hand, many variety seed production areas have complete advanced agricultural facilities such as drip irrigation, and in these places El Niño has little impact on seed production yields. Also, there are currently many similar varieties on the market that can substitute for one another. In addition, Xinjiang increased its seed production area this year by 200,000 mu, accounting for 20% of the entire seed production area. Seen this way, next year's seed market will not see a shortage of seed quantity or a serious price surge.
Regarding protection of the interests of seed-producing farmers, the relevant person in charge of the General Station said: seed production enterprises and seed-producing farmers all have signed contracts. When disasters occur, insurance can reduce farmers' losses, but high temperature and drought like this year's are not within the scope of insurance claims, and enterprises still need to pay farmers according to contract, so enterprises' interests will be somewhat affected.
Seed enterprises
On the whole, seed output is 10%-15% lower than expected, entirely within the normal range of reduction.
Kenfeng Seed Industry is the largest seed enterprise in Northeast China. According to the person in charge of the production department of Kenfeng Seed Industry: because Kenfeng's main corn variety Demeiya 1 has a short growth period, although the northwest base generally saw seed production area yield reductions this year due to dry hot winds, the seed production yield of Demeiya 1 was affected very little.
In the Ili region of Xinjiang, the detasseling work for Demeiya 1 was fully completed by the end of June, and the seed yield reduction was between 5% and 10%. In the Tacheng region of Xinjiang, early-sown plots were not affected, while late-sown plots had yield reductions of 10%-20%.
At the Gansu and Inner Mongolia bases, compared with last year's output, apart from Tiaoshan Farm, which had poor seed set and showed a yield reduction, the Huangyanghe base and the Inner Mongolia base both had higher output than last year, and the reduction across the entire base was less than 5%.
At the Heilongjiang base, Demeiya 1 was not affected.
Looking at the company as a whole, seed output is 10%-15% lower than expected, entirely within the normal range of reduction.
Hetian Fengze Xingnong Technology Development Company is a medium-sized seed enterprise in Heilongjiang. Xin Kejiang, the company's sales department manager, said they own varieties with independent intellectual property rights such as Hetian and Fengdan, and the corn seeds produced by the company are supplied in all cities and counties across the province, with a planting area of more than 40 million mu. Hetian Fengze's seed production bases in Gansu and Xinjiang cover 6,000 and 3,000 mu respectively; because drip irrigation is used, seed production yields were barely affected. In previous years, Hetian Fengze had a seed inventory of more than 1 million jin every year; in the past two years there has been none, because farmers' recognition of Hetian 1 and Hetian 4 has increased. Xin Kejiang said that there are many varieties in the third accumulated temperature zone, but few have gained widespread recognition; because sowing-period temperatures are low, many varieties show the seed rot phenomenon. And the prices of varieties that have never shown seed rot may rise slightly.
Regarding the impact of planting area adjustments on seed demand, Xin Kejiang analyzed that Heilongjiang's latitude is the same as that of some major wheat-producing regions in Canada; Canadian flour is world-famous, and Heilongjiang should also be able to produce wheat and flour of equally high quality. In the state's adjustment of corn planting area in high-latitude regions, besides adjusting grain corn to grain-bean rotation and dual-purpose grain-and-forage use, expanding the area of high-quality spring wheat can also serve as one of the ways to adjust the structure.