Is "no one to farm" really a problem? Let's hear what He Xuefeng has to say

During the National Day holiday, the author went to Sheyang County, Jiangsu Province to research "joint farming and joint planting" and made many interesting discoveries. Sheyang County, following the deployment of higher authorities, counted the number of farming households in the county with more than 30 mu of cultivated land, in order to transfer out 20% of the previous agricultural subsidies to support these new agricultural business entities. Sheyang County had originally counted moderate-scale operations of more than 50 mu as required by higher authorities, but because there were too few households farming more than 50 mu, it changed to counting households farming more than 30 mu.

Indeed, in the rural areas of Sheyang County, the vast majority of young and middle-aged laborers have already gone out to work or do business, and the vast majority of those remaining in the villages to farm are elderly people over 55 years old. In some village groups, there are even very few agricultural laborers under 60 years old. Seen this way, with the aging of the agricultural labor force, who will farm in the future may indeed become a big problem.

So, is "who will farm" really a problem? Let us look at the situation in Sheyang County below.

Since 2013, Sheyang County has been promoting "joint farming and joint planting", that is, through farmers' voluntary consultation and organization, breaking down the field ridges that separate households, changing one field with many households into many households on one mu, with cooperative organizations uniformly plowing and sowing, while farmers are responsible for field management links such as fertilizer and water management and pest control. Under the premise of retaining farmers' operational autonomy, large-scale planting has been achieved, solving the difficulties of agricultural technology extension and agricultural machinery operation, and especially solving the technical and physical difficulties faced by the elderly and women in farming. Because "joint farming and joint planting" can solve the difficulties of the elderly and women in farming, households that had previously transferred their contracted land at low prices to relatives, friends, and neighbors to farm are now willing to take back the contracted land and farm it themselves. In almost every village group implementing "joint farming and joint planting", there have been cases of taking back contracted land to farm oneself. In Group 8 of Sanhe Village, Haihe Town, 62-year-old woman Lu Shengxiu, because her health was not very good, had transferred her more than seven mu of contracted land to her husband's younger brother Dai Wang to farm at 300 yuan/mu. After joint farming and joint planting, Lu Shengxiu took back the contracted land to farm herself, because farming it herself could bring in 1,300 yuan per mu in income, and more than seven mu could bring in more than 7,000 yuan more each year. Dai Wang is 58 this year and in good health, exactly the right age for farming. He himself has 10 mu of responsibility land, plus land transferred from Lu Shengxiu and other farmers, totaling more than 20 mu, giving him more than 20,000 yuan in agricultural income each year. In addition, he has small agricultural machinery and can provide machinery services, earning about 10,000 yuan a year, plus income from catching fish and shrimp, for a total annual income of about 40,000 yuan, no less than what he would earn working outside. Now that Lu Shengxiu has taken the land back, Dai Wang has only a bit more than 10 mu, and because "joint farming and joint planting" mainly uses high-horsepower agricultural machinery, the small-horsepower machinery he previously purchased no longer has a use, so his annual income has fallen sharply, and he has therefore become a strong opponent of "joint farming and joint planting".

In Sheyang County, the number of households like Dai Wang who are willing to farm, hope to transfer in land to farm, and are capable of farming well is very large; there is simply too little land available to farm. It is only because he has no land to farm that he becomes strongly dissatisfied when transferred-in land is taken back.

During our research in Sheyang County, we surveyed the basic situation of households in three villager groups. Among them, Group 8 of Sanhe Village had more than 70 households and 600 mu of cultivated land, but only five households actually farmed more than 30 mu. These five households all reached an operating scale of more than 30 mu by transferring in land from relatives, friends, and neighbors. Of them, four households mainly transferred in the contracted land of their brothers who had gone to the city to work or do business, and one household mainly transferred in the contracted land of neighbors. The heads of these five households were 48 to 59 years old, and the cultivated land area was 30 to 55 mu. Basically every household had small agricultural machinery, and with agricultural income plus small machinery income, each household had an annual net income of more than 50,000 yuan. For example, Zou Qiyang, 48 years old, had two brothers whose whole families had gone to the city to work, and all their contracted land was transferred over. Two neighbors went to the city, and their land was also transferred over, so he had a total of 50 mu of land in 19 plots. Zou spent 70,000 yuan to buy a large harvester, using it both for himself and, more importantly, for business; harvesting in two seasons a year could earn 70,000 yuan. He spent 10,000 yuan to buy a small rice transplanter, mainly for his own use and also for business by the way, and in addition kept agricultural machinery such as a walking tractor. Apart from agriculture, each year he used the slack farming season to work outside for 5 to 8 months. He said this was mainly for rest and adjustment, and in 5 to 6 months he could earn 20,000 yuan. Over a year, farming 50 mu brought in 80,000 yuan, agricultural machinery business brought in 70,000 yuan, and work outside brought in 20,000 yuan, for an annual income of about 170,000 yuan. This income was relatively high locally, and it matched his still being in the prime of life and farming at 48.

The rent Zou Qiyang paid for contracted land was 400 yuan/mu. He did not pay rent for his brothers' land, but when his brothers' families came back every Spring Festival to eat and stay at his home, they did not pay, and when leaving they also gave varying amounts of local specialties such as rice and eggs. When there are many brothers and all are in their prime, each household has contracted land, but each household's contracted land is not large enough, and relying only on farming one's own contracted land cannot provide the basic income in the countryside to maintain family reproduction. Therefore they have to go to the city to work or do business, and then concentrate and transfer their contracted land to the brother who is willing to farm at home and also care for their elderly parents.

From our survey of about 170 households in three villager groups, we found that all households that farmed only their own contracted land, neither transferring in land nor having other sources of income, were elderly people over 55 years old. Some farmers under 55 had gone to the city to work or do business, while those under 55 who remained in the countryside definitely had to transfer in land from other households or have other sideline income. Farming only one's own contracted land provided too limited an agricultural income, making it difficult to reach the local baseline income needed to maintain basic life, and thus they had no choice but to go out to work or do business. In other words, the reason farmers go out to work or do business is that there are too few income opportunities in the countryside and they cannot obtain more land to farm. If there were opportunities to obtain income in the countryside, farmers would be willing to stay in the countryside and engage in agricultural production.

In Sheyang County, rural laborers under 55 are all young and middle-aged laborers, and these young and middle-aged laborers all have relatively high income expectations. Whether farming, engaging in rural sidelines, or going to the city to work or do business, they all have a locally consensual expected income level. If they can obtain it from farming or from sidelines, they do not necessarily have to go to the city to work or do business. If they cannot obtain this expected income from the countryside, they can only go to the city to work or do business; otherwise, they become lazy idlers looked down upon by everyone locally. These farmers who go to the city to work or do business, especially those over 45, will sooner or later return. The older they get, the lower their requirements for expected income, and the fewer opportunities they have to work or do business in the city. Thus there will be a balance point: urban work income roughly equals the income from farming one's own contracted land, and this equilibrium point is currently at about 55 to 60 years of age.

This is very interesting. The more households go to the city to work and do not farm, the larger the operating scale the households remaining in the village to farm can have, and thus the more agricultural and sideline income they can have, which can retain relatively younger farmers with higher expected annual incomes to farm at home. The more opportunities and the greater the income from going to the city to work or do business, the more farmers, including older farmers, can be attracted to the city, thereby allowing the equally older farmers still remaining in the countryside to have a larger agricultural operating scale and more sideline income opportunities, thus raising the level of agricultural income. Conversely, if agricultural income opportunities increase, more relatively young laborers will be retained in the village to farm, reducing their opportunities to go to the city.

In a particular period, urban work opportunities and agricultural profit opportunities are roughly unchanged, and what determines whether farmers go to the city to work or stay in the village to farm is related to only two factors: first, their own age and expected income level; second, the possible work income, or the opportunity to obtain income from agriculture. If they are older, for example over 60, work opportunities are already relatively few, so returning home to farm one's own contracted land is forced, and also acceptable. If under 60, they still have opportunities to go to the city to work or do business and obtain income. If farming income is too little, of course they go to the city. If there are profit opportunities in agriculture no lower than going to the city, such as being able to transfer in land to form moderate-scale operations, as well as sideline income, they may choose to stay in the countryside. In the statistics for about 170 households in the above three villager groups, among households farming only their own contracted land, there were basically no laborers under 55. Any laborer under 55 still remaining in the village to farm definitely had other sources of income, most typically of course transferring in land, and in addition various income opportunities, such as working as an agricultural machinery operator, doing sidelines, handicrafts, breeding, and so on. Thus two "all" judgments can be obtained: all households farming only their own contracted land are laborers over 55; all laborers under 55 still remaining in the village to farm do not rely only on their own contracted land for income, but definitely have either transferred-in land, sideline income, or other sources of income. Of course, laborers over 55 remaining in the village do not necessarily farm only their own contracted land, and may have various income opportunities. In Sheyang, rural laborers around 60 remaining in the village almost all have multiple opportunities to obtain income.

Although there are individual differences (because whether one can obtain profit opportunities from the countryside differs for each individual), overall, judging from the current state of China's urbanization process, farmers who go to the city to work will sooner or later return to the countryside to farm. Sheyang farmers believe that working in the city is only a means, and they themselves will sooner or later return to farm. Almost no farmer currently around 50 plans to live in the city when old. Even if they buy a house, they buy it for their children. When they are old, it is impossible for them to live with their children in the city: first, living together with children easily leads to conflict; second, living in the city is meaningless. In the countryside there is a house to live in, land to farm, and the relationships of an acquaintance society, and life is relaxed and comfortable. In rural Sheyang, whenever children marry, they always split off from their parents and live separately.

Since they will sooner or later return to farm, farmers transferring land are unwilling to transfer it for the long term. In Group 4 of Sanzhong Village, Changdang Town, one household transferred in more than 150 mu of land from more than ten households in the same group at 650 yuan/mu, with a lease term of 5 years. At the time of the research, three and a half years had passed, and there was still a year and a half before expiration. This household hoped to renew for another five years after the five-year lease expired. According to the village cadres' analysis, he might get his wish, but the tenants in the next five years would definitely change considerably, because the households that transferred out land five years earlier would be older five years later and would want to come back to farm. In fact, several households in this group had already returned from the city and were waiting to take back the land when the term expired to farm it themselves. At the same time, there were also households whose parents had farmed the land before, but now the parents were too old and no longer able to farm, while they themselves could still work in the city, so they were willing to rent the land out for several years. Of course, it could not be rented out for too long.

During the research in rural Sheyang, it was found that the oldest farmer was 83 years old and still farmed two mu. A 78-year-old man, Hu Jianhua, still farmed 5 mu. He said that with "joint farming and joint planting" now, there would be no problem even farming 20 mu. With "joint farming and joint planting", it was possible to farm for another 3 to 5 years. Hu Jianhua, 78, had very good family conditions. He had 4 sons, 3 working away and one farming at home, and all had good economic conditions. He himself also had more than 70,000 yuan in savings, and still had more than 5,000 yuan in farming income each year, while his consumption was extremely low. His farming was obviously not only for old-age security or making a living, but because he felt farming was meaningful; otherwise he would become part of the "waiting-to-die brigade", which would be meaningless. Rural people must work when they can work, and live to old age, work to old age; labor is a need. Especially under mechanized operation conditions, agricultural production no longer requires carrying on the shoulder or by hand, and field management can be done by the elderly, and done meaningfully. The complete socialized services provided by "joint farming and joint planting" further made elderly farming possible.

Based on the above analysis, there probably is no problem of no one farming in the countryside. If there were more land and more rural income opportunities, there would definitely be more younger farmers staying in the countryside to farm. At present, there is too little rural cultivated land and too few rural income opportunities. If more land could be obtained, or more land could be transferred in, then more young and middle-aged laborers would remain in the countryside to farm.

Sheyang County counted the county's scale operations of more than 30 mu. Haihe Town had a total of 210,000 mu of cultivated land, of which 23,500 mu were scale operations of more than 30 mu, involving 300 households. The vast majority of these household heads were 45 to 55 years old, and very few were over 60. The reason young and middle-aged laborers aged 45 to 55 could remain in the countryside was that they had transferred in land, and thus could obtain income opportunities in the countryside no lower than going out to work. Where there is land, there will naturally be large-scale agricultural production and operation entities.

In other words, the formation of new business entities has its own internal laws. In order to cultivate new agricultural business entities, some places promote large-scale, long-term, irreversible land transfers, which may cut off the freedom of farmers to move back and forth between urban and rural areas under the originally organically achieved high-level equilibrium, causing the serious consequence that farmers who have gone to the city can no longer return to their hometowns.

Today China cannot provide conditions for all farmers who have gone to the city to settle down in the city, and migrant workers who fail in the city still have to return to the countryside. Whether they can return and how they return depends crucially on how many profit opportunities remain in the countryside. At present it is not that no one farms, but that a large number of farmers have no land to farm and land is very difficult to farm. The focus of state finance should be to provide convenience in farming for hundreds of millions of farmers and solve the difficulties they cannot solve by a single household alone in farming. Jiangsu Sheyang's "joint farming and joint planting" is a good experience worth promoting.