Excessive Grain Imports Threaten National Food Security

The Central Economic Work Conference previously proposed a national food security strategy under the new circumstances of “taking self-reliance as the mainstay, basing ourselves on domestic production, ensuring production capacity, importing appropriately, and relying on technological support,” requiring that the rice bowls of the Chinese people must always be firmly held in our own hands and that our rice bowls should mainly be filled with Chinese grain. Against this background, scientifically assessing the food security situation of China's grains and staple rations during the “12th Five-Year Plan” and “13th Five-Year Plan” periods, especially the consumption demand and production situation of China's three major grains - rice, wheat, and corn - is of important practical significance and urgency.

I. Current Situation and Trends of China's Staple Ration Consumption

According to the China Statistical Yearbook-2014, in 2013 the national per capita grain consumption was 148.7 kg. Of this, grains accounted for 138.9 kg, tubers 2.3 kg, and beans 7.5 kg. Based on China's 2013 population of 1,360.72 million, the total staple ration consumption should be 202.34 million tons, of which grains were 189 million tons, tubers 3.13 million tons, and beans 10.21 million tons. Or simply put, in 2013 China's total staple ration consumption was at a level of approximately 200 million tons, of which grains accounted for 93.4%.

Among the grains directly consumed by Chinese residents, wheat and rice predominate. It is estimated that at the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the highest proportion of wheat and rice in Chinese residents' staple ration consumption was approximately 90%. Wheat and rice are the main food sources for the per capita staple ration consumption of China's rural residents.

From the perspective of changes in rural residents' staple ration consumption and its structure, since the 1990s China's rural residents' per capita staple ration consumption has generally shown a declining trend, while the proportion of wheat and rice in staple ration consumption has shown a rising trend. In 1990, China's rural residents' per capita staple ration consumption exceeded 260 kg, declining to approximately 250 kg by 2000, and further declining to below 200 kg per capita annually after 2010.

Although China's rural residents' per capita staple rations and the wheat and rice within them have shown a declining trend, the proportion of direct wheat and rice consumption in staple ration consumption has generally shown a rising trend. In 1990, wheat and rice accounted for 82% of China's rural residents' per capita staple ration consumption, rising to 87% by 2005, and further rising slightly to above 88% in 2011 and 2012.

According to estimates, in the early “13th Five-Year Plan” period, the highest value of staple ration consumption of China's urban and rural residents is estimated at approximately 190 million tons, of which wheat and rice as direct staple ration consumption account for approximately 170 million tons. Affected by factors such as changes in urban-rural population structure and changes in food consumption structure, by the end of the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, i.e., 2020, the highest value of staple ration consumption of China's urban and rural residents is estimated to decline to a level of 180 million tons, of which the demand for wheat and rice as direct staple ration consumption is approximately 160 million tons.

Using data from the National Bureau of Statistics, it is estimated that the staple ration consumption of urban and rural residents shows different changing trends. From 2016 to 2020, the total staple ration consumption of urban residents is estimated to increase from over 90 million tons to 100 million tons, while rural residents' staple ration consumption is estimated to decline from approximately 100 million tons to a level of 70 million tons.

It is worth noting that the impact of China's urban-rural population structure, the declining proportion of young and middle-aged adults, and the aging society on grain consumption cannot be ignored. In the changes in urban and rural residents' food consumption structure, the substitution of non-grain consumption for grain consumption all has an impact on staple ration consumption. The substitution of animal-source foods and oils for staple ration consumption, the substitution of vegetables and fruits for grain consumption, the substitution of dining out for home consumption; the substitution of processed foods for direct consumption of raw grain, and so on, may all reduce the per capita staple ration consumption of urban and rural residents. Additionally, if certain results can be achieved in controlling grain waste and saving grain in China, this will also reduce the per capita staple ration consumption of urban and rural residents.

According to the Outline of China's Food and Nutrition Development (2014-2020), “by 2020, the national per capita annual staple ration consumption will be 135 kg.” Based on China's 2020 population of 1.4 billion to 1.5 billion, the total staple ration consumption should be in the range of 189 million tons to 202.5 million tons, or simply put, by 2020 China's staple ration consumption will be at a level of approximately 200 million tons.

II. China's Grain Production Capacity and the Degree of Food Security Guarantee

In 2014, China's total grain output reached 607.1 million tons, setting a historical high. This is already the second consecutive year that China's total grain output has exceeded 600 million tons, meaning that China's grain production capacity of 600 million tons has initially taken shape. China's continuously improving grain production capacity is closely related to factors such as the state increasing agricultural investment and implementing grain price policies, as well as the relatively light negative impact of natural disasters on grain production in China in recent years.

During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, China's grain production structure may be further adjusted, and scientific and technological progress will continue to bring about continuous increases in grain per-unit yields, so there will still be potential for grain output increases. Although the potential for further expansion of China's grain sown area is not great, agricultural scientific and technological progress, the expansion of high-yield creation programs, and the advancement of high-standard farmland construction mean that grain per-unit yields have the potential to increase.

Assuming that China's farmland protection is in place, farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain is consolidated, and the national grain sown area will not decline, considering changes in China's grain consumption structure and the potential for increasing per-unit yields of corn and other crops, and estimating based on an average annual growth rate of grain per-unit yield of 1.5% to 2%, by 2020 China's grain per-unit yield will be approximately 6,000 kg to 6,200 kg per hectare, and grain production capacity will reach a level of approximately 670 million tons to 700 million tons.

In 2014, although there was a relatively large gap between China's grain production and demand, requiring imports of nearly 100 million tons of grain from the international market, from the perspective of total volume, China's total grain output provides a fairly comfortable guarantee for urban and rural residents' direct staple ration consumption and indirect grain consumption. In 2014, China's total grain output exceeded 600 million tons, and urban and rural residents' staple rations and indirect grain consumption (feed grain) were approximately 200 million tons and 300 million tons respectively, with the ratio of total grain output to urban and rural residents' staple rations and indirect grain consumption being approximately 1.2.

According to the national food security strategy under the new circumstances, China has proposed the basic goals of basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple rations, which requires that guaranteeing urban and rural residents' grain consumption must ensure that China has a relatively strong grain production capacity. Considering that changes in grain market supply and demand relationships may alter the expectations of relevant market entities, leading to problems such as grain panic buying or grain hoarding, combined with the fact that a considerable portion of grain still needs to be used for seeds and industrial processing, plus the inevitable losses in the processes of grain harvesting, transportation, and storage, the quantity of grain that China can produce must be higher than the quantity of urban and rural residents' direct staple rations and indirect feed grain consumption. For convenience of discussion and estimation, the ratio of China's grain production capacity to the quantity of grain needed for urban and rural residents' consumption can be defined as the domestic food security guarantee coefficient. Based on China's grain production capacity and urban and rural residents' grain consumption quantity, it is estimated that at the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, China's food security guarantee coefficient was approximately 1.2.

Although since 2003 China has experienced phenomena such as panic buying and hoarding of certain grain varieties in certain local areas, and grain prices have continuously risen, in reality there has been neither long-term widespread panic buying of grain nor long-term widespread hoarding of grain, indicating that the grain supply and demand relationship is generally relatively comfortable, and China's continuously improving grain production capacity provides a relatively good guarantee for national food security. Thus, it can be inferred that a domestic food security guarantee coefficient of approximately 1.2 can achieve the national food security goals under the new circumstances.

From the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's rice and wheat output is clearly higher than the quantity used for staple ration consumption. In 2012, China's per capita rice and wheat availability was 150.8 kg and 89.4 kg respectively, while rural residents' household per capita rice and wheat consumption was 92.6 kg and 52.3 kg respectively, with the former being 1.63 times and 1.71 times the latter respectively, and these multiples being clearly higher than the relevant years before 2008 (see Table 4). Urban residents' household per capita rice and wheat consumption should logically be lower than that of rural residents, so rice and wheat used for staple ration consumption need to be quite comfortable, and the food security guarantee coefficient of domestically produced rice and wheat is relatively higher.