Grain output has grown for years in a row, but food security still cannot be ignored
"Food is the first necessity of the people, and grain is the foundation of food"; grain has always played an indispensable role in human survival and development. Judging by the world's grain supply, grain output has remained in a state of continuous increase. According to forecasts by relevant departments, this year China's grain output is expected to increase once again. This means that, from 2004 to the present, China is expected to achieve a “twelfth consecutive increase” in grain output.
The continuous growth of grain output is welcome good news, but behind this good news, phenomena such as weak grain consumption coexisting with grain waste and losses have become potential factors threatening food security. How to ensure food security is facing new circumstances and tests.
Weak grain prices, security situation still grim
This year is expected to achieve a “twelfth consecutive increase” in grain output. If other external effects are not considered, this figure would let us temporarily relax our vigilance about food security. In fact, however, according to statistics, the grain losses caused each year in China by combine harvesters missing grain and leaving it ungleaned, fire and mildew during storage, scattering during circulation and handling, and excessive polishing during processing, among other household grain storage, warehousing, transport and processing links, have reached more than 70 billion jin, close to 6% of total annual grain output.
“From 2014 to 2015, weak domestic grain consumption was mainly due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth and relatively insufficient momentum in domestic demand; at the same time, the sluggish manufacturing sector also led to reduced demand for industrial grain use. Weak consumer demand will expand the imbalance between supply and demand in China's grain market, the scale of accumulated grain inventories will continue to expand, grain prices face strong downward pressure, and the price elasticity of grain consumption is relatively low, so in the future, against the backdrop of continuously growing grain supply, grain consumption will show a long-term ‘sluggish’ state for some time.” Song Jiening, a researcher on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries at China Investment Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from China Industry and Economy News.
Zheng Fengtian, a professor at the School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development at Renmin University of China, also pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China Industry and Economy News: “The state's grain prices are relatively sluggish, and the main reason for the sluggishness is that the state has had consecutive years of bumper grain harvests, inventories have risen sharply, and the state lowered purchase prices, which led to weak grain prices.”
Taking rice as an example, consumer demand in the domestic rice market is still relatively weak, market buying and selling activity is relatively low, and price trends have fluctuated up and down. With the large-scale arrival of new rice on the market, supply in the market exceeds demand, and rice prices have begun to decline. According to market monitoring, on October 20, the wholesale price (the same below) of ordinary late japonica rice produced in Anhui was 4.44 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from September 30, a decline of 1.3%; high-quality late japonica rice produced in Jiangsu was 4.54 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg, a decline of 1.3%; round-grained late japonica rice produced in Heilongjiang was 4.96 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg, a decline of 0.8%; ordinary late indica rice produced in Anhui was 3.96 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg, a decline of 2.0%; and long-grain fragrant rice produced in Heilongjiang was 5.80 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg, a decline of 3.3%. From the above monitoring data, it is not difficult to see that the average transaction price of rice has begun to move downward, and rice prices are showing a stable but declining trend, among which long-grain fragrant rice from Northeast China has seen a relatively large decline.
The relative weakness of grain consumption and prices has poured a basin of cold water on those of us still immersed in the joy of a bumper grain harvest. In addition, Song Jiening also pointed out, “because China's grain planting costs continue to increase, domestic grain prices have long been ‘inverted’ relative to international prices, causing the scale of imported grain to continue to show a growing trend against the background of annual increases in domestic grain output; the extensive growth model that relies on expanding cultivated land area and investing large amounts of production materials such as pesticides and chemical fertilizers; an unreasonable grain structure, with cultivation concentrated on only a few varieties; the relatively low development level of the grain processing industry and low grain utilization efficiency; these conditions will all intensify China's food security situation.”
Paying attention to food security brooks no delay
China is a country with a large total population, gradually decreasing cultivated land area, rising prices of agricultural production materials, rising costs for farmers to grow grain, scarce water resources, relatively serious environmental pollution, and grain waste behavior that still exists. Therefore, to strengthen food security, we must proceed from actual conditions. With China's industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization, grain costs such as labor, agricultural machinery operations, land transfer fees, seeds, chemical fertilizers and pesticides continue to rise, and a series of problems have also appeared in the grain production process. These problems have also sounded an alarm for us. To ensure China's food security, there must be long-term planning and dynamic response measures.
In this regard, Song Jiening said, “As a country with a large population, food security concerns China's national security. When measuring food security issues, we must never look only at the degree of grain self-sufficiency; we should also view food security issues from the perspective of development, so that while increasing output we can also transform grain production methods, improve grain utilization efficiency, and enhance the international competitiveness of grain.”
On how to ease China's food security situation, Song Jiening proposed, “First, the state should accelerate the promotion of agricultural products price reform and promote the marketization of agricultural product production and sales; second, adjust the grain planting structure, adopt grain crop rotation, and increase the diversity of grain varieties; finally, when guiding the grain market, the government should not be limited to the domestic market but should also incorporate the international grain market.”
In addition, the 2014-2015 China Food Security Development Report also gave corresponding suggestions on how to ease food security issues. Under the principle of persisting in ensuring grain supply mainly domestically and utilizing two types of resources, it is necessary to regulate grain imports and exports by establishing an international grain situation database, strengthening international grain cooperation, setting self-sufficiency targets by variety, strengthening policy coordination with transportation departments, and encouraging some grain varieties to increase export efforts.
Professor Zheng Fengtian said, “Now farmers cannot make money growing grain, and grain prices have been lowered somewhat, which is a considerable blow to grain farmers.” Subjectively speaking, grain prices have already entered an era of high prices, but with the increase in various costs, growing grain can hardly mobilize people's enthusiasm, so grain prices can be adjusted within an appropriate range, thereby driving grain production and awareness of conservation.
In addition, to ease grain waste and loss, strengthening infrastructure construction also cannot be overlooked. At present, in addition to digging wells and ditches, hardening field roads, planning power grids and forest networks, building high-standard grain fields, and improving the basic conditions for agricultural production, all localities have also increased technical support and funding input for grain storage, transportation and processing, improved farmers' grain storage conditions, researched and developed new technologies suitable for farmers' grain storage, accelerated the construction of the grain circulation system, and reduced transportation losses. In addition, warehousing and logistics are the intermediate links connecting production and consumption. To reduce grain waste generated during transportation, the state also needs to increase efforts to promote advanced trial storage, loading and unloading, and transportation technologies and equipment. Carrying out scientific grain storage research and transforming concepts of grain storage brook no delay.
Grain is the foundation of all industries. Behind increased grain output, we should always keep firmly in mind that ensuring food security still has a long way to go.