China's agricultural trade deficit and price inversion have become the dual norm

Although China's grain production has achieved "11 consecutive years of growth" since 2004, agricultural trade has correspondingly shown a "dual norm" phenomenon of a normalized deficit and normalized price inversion.

This was learned by the reporter at the 2015 (Third) China Grain and Food Security Strategy Summit held here.

According to Ye Xingqing, Director of the Rural Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, speaking at the summit, with the increase in grain imports, China's agricultural trade has run a deficit for 11 consecutive years, and the scale of the deficit has gradually expanded, so the agricultural trade deficit will become the norm.

⟦NL> Data show that last year China's grain imports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time. In recent years, while the trade deficit in livestock products has expanded rapidly, China's three major grain varieties - rice, wheat and corn - have also recorded net imports for 4 consecutive years, while imports of corn substitutes such as sorghum and DDGS (distillers dried grains with solubles) have also grown substantially in recent years.

Experts believe that the deficit in agricultural trade is related to the inversion of domestic and international prices. Affected by factors such as the decline in international market prices of bulk agricultural products in recent years and the continued high levels of domestic minimum purchase prices and temporary storage prices, the inversion of domestic and international agricultural product prices has become increasingly obvious.

"From the perspective of China's natural endowments for agricultural production and its stage of development, the cost of China's agricultural products will remain on an upward trajectory in the future, and in the medium to long term price inversion will become the norm," Ye Xingqing said.

The "2015 (Third) China Grain and Food Security Strategy Summit" was jointly hosted by the Rural Economy Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council and the China Economic Yearbook Press. With the theme of "Transformation of Agricultural Development Mode and Continuation of Growth Momentum," the summit focused on discussing topics such as how to promote the transformation of the agricultural development mode and the upgrading of momentum.