Chinese agriculture still has great prospects and broad development potential
At the Shenzhen Dameisha Innovation Forum on November 13, economist Li Yining said that one point in the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics in the third quarter of this year that is very worth noting is that the output value of the tertiary industry has already accounted for 51% of China's GDP, which means China has already entered the transition period from industrialization to the post-industrial era.
Already in the early stage of the post-industrial era
Li Yining said this is a marker. Because in human development, there are generally three stages. The first stage is the agricultural society stage, in which the primary industry occupies the main position in GDP. The second stage is the industrialization stage, when the proportion of the secondary industry gradually rises, and industrial output value accounts for the main proportion of GDP. The third stage is the post-industrialization stage, in which the output value of the tertiary industry gradually accounts for more than half of GDP.
In Western developed countries, the tertiary industry accounts for between 60% and 70% of GDP. Li Yining said that for Western countries, the economic growth rate in the third stage will certainly come down; being able to maintain a growth rate of around 3% is already considered good by Western countries, and there are not many opportunities to reach 4%.
In Li Yining's view, China's tertiary industry proportion has already reached 51%, meaning we have entered the transition period from industrialization to the post-industrial era, that is, entered the early stage of the post-industrial era.
But Li Yining believes that China has a situation different from the West: China's industrialization has not been completed. "The marker of completed industrialization is generally that the manufacturing of high-end complete sets of equipment occupies the main position and is in a leading position in the world. We still have a distance to go before reaching this."
He added that therefore, although the tertiary industry accounts for 51% and will continue to increase afterward, we should not forget that our industrialization stage has not been completed, and we should continue to carry out industrialization.
Agriculture still has great prospects
Li Yining proposed three development strategies: the first is to accelerate structural adjustment, otherwise the distance from the middle position in world manufacturing will become greater and greater.
Second, the tertiary industry must continue to develop, otherwise it will be impossible to make greater progress in the post-industrial era in the future. At the same time, it is necessary to narrow the urban-rural income gap, because only by narrowing the urban-rural income gap can consumption be treated as a main way of increasing GDP.
Third, Chinese agriculture still has great prospects. Chinese agriculture is different from that of developed countries and has not yet reached its peak. Poverty alleviation and development in many places is precisely about accelerating the narrowing of the urban-rural gap and enabling agriculture to truly move onto the path of agricultural industrialization.
In April this year, Li Yining led a research group from the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference to conduct research in Hanzhong, Shaanxi, and reached a conclusion that poverty alleviation and development in China should "suit measures to local conditions."
He gave an example: in Hanzhong there is a county called Xixiang County, where large areas of farmland have been planted with tea trees, because the local tea is Fuxi tea and is very famous. Although farming does not require much labor, planting tea and selling tea alone require many tea workers, and the pay is high, so farmers who had gone out to work have returned one after another and come back to work as tea workers.
Another successful case occurred in Yang County of Hanzhong City. Yang County is a major agricultural county and prohibits the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. A very important reason for not allowing pesticide spraying is to protect the crested ibis. Because there are crested ibises here, tourism gradually developed, and all kinds of toys, hotels, and agritainment businesses sprang up.
Li Yining said that under the new normal, it is necessary to vigorously develop the tertiary industry, continue to carry out industrialization, let high-end manufacturing develop, and carry out poverty alleviation and development, so that farmers can both make the environment better and the environment can also continue to improve.
Next, do a good job with three lists
Li Yining said that next it is necessary to do a good job with three lists. The first list is the negative list. Anything not included in the negative list can be done, which is of great benefit to the development of China's private enterprises.
The second is the power list: what the law has not authorized, the government also cannot do; it must be authorized by law. This is the power list. In this way, investors and private entrepreneurs will feel settled.
The third list is the responsibility list. The responsibility list includes both restrictions on government power and restrictions on the responsibilities of the government and its departments. Acting arbitrarily is not acceptable, and failing to act is also not acceptable. In this way, everyone's enthusiasm will rise.