Scallion Prices Buck the Trend, Nicknamed "Forward Scallion"
Right now, prices for all kinds of winter vegetables are fairly stable, and only the scallion has bucked the trend, carving out a “Forward Scallion” path of soaring prices.
As the weather gradually turns cold, the scallion is one of the indispensable side vegetables on the winter dining table, and in most parts of the north, people still keep the custom of stocking up 40 to 50 jin of scallions for the winter. How big an impact does the rise in scallion prices have on market fluctuations? Can growers get through a profitable, warm winter?
Right now is exactly the time when autumn scallions from the main producing areas of Henan, Shandong and Hebei are coming onto the market in large quantities. These past few days, scallions in the producing areas are being harvested, and because the price is very high, many farmers are reluctant to sell.
Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that among 110 wholesale markets across the country, more than 60% saw scallion prices rise in November, with an average increase of 15%. By December, the average scallion price in wholesale markets nationwide remained above 1.8 yuan/jin, up about another 19% from November. Scallions from different producing areas vary in quality, and prices also fluctuate slightly up and down, but overall they are all on an upward track. Zhang Yuejiao, a market analyst at Yimutian, brings a set of data.
At present, prices in the producing areas are also relatively high, and the scallion price in Henan is currently higher than in Shandong. Right now, the loading price for unwashed Tiegan scallions in the Xinye area of Henan is 0.9-1.05 yuan/jin, which is relatively high. Shandong mainly grows Tiegan scallions and Changbai scallions, with prices generally around 0.6-0.8 yuan/jin, and Changbai scallions in Wanrong, Shanxi are currently around 0.85-0.95 yuan/jin. Scallion prices are relatively high now, and goods are moving through the market very quickly.
This round of scallion price increases undoubtedly gives scallion growers a positive boost. As is well known, in February and March this year, severe unsold scallion backlogs occurred in many places in China, and in many producing areas the scallion price fell from an already low 0.6 yuan/kg all the way to below 0.2 yuan/kg. Because hiring people to dig up the scallions costs money, and even after digging them up they could not be sold, some growers actually used herbicide to clear the scallions from their fields. Yimutian analyst Zhang Yuejiao analyzed that one very important reason for the current rise in scallion prices is that growers in the producing areas suffered heavy losses in the sluggish market at the start of the year, which reduced the planted area this season and led to a relatively tight supply.
This round of unsold backlog had a very large impact on the seedling cultivation of summer scallions and autumn scallions. Summer scallions are raised in spring, which coincided with the low point of market prices at the time, and many scallion farmers pulled up the seedlings even after planting them. For autumn scallions, the planted area was reduced across the board, with main producing areas such as Tengzhou and Anqiu in Shandong cutting back planting, while Xinye in Henan, Pingdu in Shandong, and Dongchangfu in Shandong basically reduced planted area by 1/3, and other producing areas in Shanxi, Hebei and Henan nearly halved theirs. So the current surge in scallion prices this season is almost entirely caused by reduced planting and supply shortages.
It can thus be seen that the rise and fall of agricultural product prices is mostly determined by output in the producing areas, and the trigger is still that farmers mostly use the current season's prices to guide the current season's planting, always lagging behind changes in the market. Some growers report that growing vegetables is like gambling, and it is hard to know before planting what the returns will be. These past few days, market conditions in the producing areas have been rising, farmers have a slight reluctance to sell, and in many producing areas it is still hard to hire workers, making it difficult to receive goods.
As the weather gradually turns colder, demand is gradually increasing, but since the reduction in scallion planted area this season is already a foregone conclusion, Zhuochuang Information market analyst Liu Shuai analyzes that scallion prices may rise further before the end of the year.