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Nationwide summer grain harvest exceeds 90 percent, output expected to hit a new high
The wheat has all been harvested. Xu Zongxiang, the "Wheat King" of Taihe County, Fuyang City, Anhui Province, is busy with field management, preparing to reap an even bigger autumn grain harvest on top of the summer grain bumper crop. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's crop monitoring and actual harvest results from various regions, the nationwide summer grain harvest has now passed 90 percent, a bumper harvest is a foregone conclusion, and the summer grain output is expected to hit a new high. With the global wheat production situation hardly encouraging this year, China's wheat production has bucked the trend, and achieving a "12th consecutive bumper harvest" is now a foregone conclusion. This is of great significance, powerfully boosting confidence in securing a bumper harvest for the whole year and laying a good foundation for increasing annual grain output.
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Domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later period
The adjustment of China's domestic rapeseed purchase policy has a diversified impact on the market. After the cancellation of the temporary state reserve rapeseed purchase policy, the market supply of domestic rapeseed oil will increase relatively, the price gap between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will continue to remain at a low level, and domestic rapeseed oil consumption will also continue
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Oils and fats market expected to see a wave-like upward trend in the future
After rebounding from a year-to-date low last week, the three major domestic oils and fats varieties as a whole remained in a choppy consolidation this week (July 13-19, 2015). On the 16th, soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil futures varieties fell collectively once again. The main 1601 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil futures all opened lower and moved lower, closing down 1.08%, 1.54% and 0.79% respectively at the end of the session.
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China's soybean imports in the third quarter are expected to reach a massive volume
Oil World: China's soybean imports in July this year could reach as high as 9.5 million tonnes. According to the Hamburg, Germany-based industry publication Oil World, China's soybean imports in July 2015 could reach 9.2 million to 9.5 million tonnes. By comparison, statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China early this week
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Severe Loss of Traditional Chinese Medicinal Material Resources: First-Ever Plan Expected to Solve the Problem
Not long ago, the "Plan for the Protection and Development of Chinese Medicinal Materials (2015-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") was released, proposing that Chinese medicinal materials are a unique and strategically significant precious resource of China, and that it is necessary to adhere to the combination of market leadership with government guidance, the combination of resource protection with industrial development, and the combination of increasing output with improving quality.
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Japonica rice market prices are expected to run steadily
Japonica rice market prices will run steadily. Affected by gradually rising temperatures and the plum rain season in the south, terminal consumer demand in the rice market has declined somewhat, and off-season characteristics are clearly evident, so processing enterprises will see even slower sales progress. Under the influence of regulatory policies, ample supply, and relatively stable demand, the domestic japonica rice market will show a steady trend, with little possibility of large fluctuations.
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China's rice area at 30.37 million hectares; rapeseed output expected to exceed level of 7 years ago
China's rice area reaches 30.37 million hectares. According to estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2015 China's rice planting area increased by 0.2% over the previous year, reaching 30.37 million hectares. Among this, this year's early rice planting area was flat compared with the previous year, at about 5.8 million hectares or so. If calculated based on the per-unit yield trend of recent years, 2015 early rice output could reach a level of about 34.5 million tons. Statistics show that from May last year to now, the total transaction volume of the three types of rice was 6.79 million tons, of which early rice transactions were 810,000 tons, middle and late rice transactions were 3.32 million tons, and japonica rice transactions were 2.66 million tons. Before the new grain comes to market, the remaining policy-related rice volume is still relatively large, and the pressure on the market remains fairly significant.
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Huge Indica Rice Supply, Market Prices Expected to Face Pressure
Currently, the domestic indica rice market supply is basically sufficient, while demand from rice processing enterprises is insufficient and terminal consumption growth is slowing. Therefore, in addition to the relatively sluggish trading of policy-based paddy rice, the proportion of failed auctions in the rotation bidding transactions of local reserve paddy rice is also relatively high. In the short term
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A bumper summer grain harvest is expected again this year, as the busy "three summers" season is in full swing
At present, we have entered the busy "three summers" season. How are the summer grain prospects? This year's summer grain area has increased slightly and steadily, reaching 415 million mu, an increase of more than 1 million mu over last year. Yield per unit area is expected to rise. Based on field surveys and analysis by experts, the three factors making up wheat yield are: the number of ears per mu has increased, the number of grains per ear is flat to slightly up, and the 1000-grain weight is expected to decline slightly, so an increase in yield per unit area is expected to be achieved. The high-yield trend is obvious in the main producing provinces. Main producing provinces report that wheat stands are adequate and individual plants are robust, and in particular dryland wheat is growing better than in previous years. In addition, several rounds of widespread rainfall occurred in the northern winter wheat region in April, which helped form large ears with many grains.
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The seed industry market is expected to bottom out and rebound in the third quarter
Editor's note: In recent years, some seed inventories have been severe, with corn and rice seed supply exceeding demand, the number of seed companies and seed production areas shrinking, and production capacity declining. According to general patterns, after two or three years of wandering in the trough, the seed market will enter an upward cycle. Last year, the seed production, supply and demand analysis meeting of the National Agricultural Technology Center also predicted that the seed supply and demand relationship would improve this year. Some analysts in the agricultural materials industry, based on the bottoming-out situation of the industry's economic operation and various favorable conditions, predict that the seed industry will bottom out and rebound in the third quarter, but some people in seed companies believe that the risks in the seed industry market have not yet been fully released, and the destocking and capacity reduction of the two hybrid crops have not yet been completed. Which view is more well-founded? Where does the seed market's wind vane point? Readers are invited to pay attention and think.
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