-
Soybean meal market faces pullback pressure after weather-driven speculation
Over the past two months, soybean meal futures contracts have seen a sharp decline followed by a rapid rebound, and the current price is already close to the high at the start of the decline. Does this mean the soybean meal market has already reversed? First, let us analyze the reasons for the earlier decline in soybean meal: First, sluggish domestic demand for soybean meal led to price declines. Weak demand in the livestock and aquaculture industry constrained soybean meal consumption. China's hog inventory and breeding sow inventory fell sharply year on year; prices of meat, eggs and poultry were sluggish, and farming losses were severe; demand in aquaculture slowed, constraining demand for protein meal. Second, soybean meal supply increased substantially, spot prices fell sharply, some basis contracts faced default risk, and selling off occurred.</P><P> Now let us look at the reasons for the rapid rise in soybean meal. The author believes that the rise in soybean meal came partly from a return of prices after the earlier excessive decline; on the other hand, it came from speculation driven by heavy rain in the main U.S. soybean producing areas, which caused market concern about U.S. soybean planted area and good-to-excellent ratings. The planted area data and weekly soybean good-to-excellent ratings data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 30 both confirmed the market's concerns about U.S. soybean planting. These data will, in the short term, still support U.S. soybean futures in maintaining high-level oscillation, which will substantially raise the cost of China's imported soybeans, forcing crushing plants to passively raise the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil.</P><P> But in the short term, speculation over the impact of severe weather on planting may cool somewhat, and the loose fundamentals will bring great pressure on soybean meal prices.</P><P> From the perspective of soybean meal supply, global soybean supply is ample. After U.S. soybeans hit a record high last year, soybean output in Argentina and Brazil also hit record highs, which will suppress legume prices over the medium and long term. Domestically, China's soybean imports in June may reach 8.53 million tons and in July reach 8 million tons, so soybean sources are very abundant; at present, the operating rate of domestic crushing plants remains at an extremely high level of about 54%, and soybean meal supply has recently remained high. The volume of domestic rapeseed meal and imported DDGS remains high, suppressing plant protein prices.</P><P> On the demand side, although the hog farming industry currently shows restocking demand, truly driving soybean meal consumption may still require waiting for hog inventory data to stop falling and rebound before it can be confirmed. The meat, egg and poultry farming industry remains sluggish. Due to oversupply, prices of meat poultry and eggs fell sharply earlier, severely dampening the enthusiasm of farming enterprises to restock. In aquaculture, because oversupply last year led to sharp price declines, pond stock levels in the south are relatively high this year, constraining the release of fry. Recently, rainfall has been excessive, feed placement in ponds has decreased, which is bearish for meal consumption. Later, as large quantities of stocked fish are sold, demand for protein meal from newly released fry may decline substantially, so demand for protein meal from aquaculture later is also worrying.</P><P> Based on the information on both supply and demand, the author believes that soybean meal supply and demand will remain loose, and after the bullish U.S. heavy rain weather factor is fully priced in, soybean meal prices will return to fundamentals in the short term, with the possibility of oscillating pullbacks.</P></p>
-
Central finance provides 1.2 billion yuan to support livestock and poultry improved breeding stock subsidies
To support raising the level of improved breeding stock in animal husbandry and promote the sustained and healthy development of the livestock industry, in 2015 the central finance, through the modern agricultural production development fund, allocated 1.2 billion yuan to support the livestock and poultry improved breeding stock subsidy work, encouraging breeders to purchase improved frozen semen and breeding sires for livestock breed improvement.
-
Potato steamed buns have arrived - is there really not enough food to eat?
As a vegetable with broad popular appeal, the potato has upgraded itself with a new way to be eaten. Recently, potato steamed buns have invaded major supermarkets in Beijing, and the potato's future path of advancement also includes bread, flower rolls, cakes and bean buns. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture proposed the
-
What are the four major chaotic phenomena of illegal occupation of arable land?
Using the form of "renting instead of expropriation" to enclose land, and then rapidly building factories and houses on arable land; under the pretext of developing ecological agriculture and high-efficiency agriculture, leasing arable land but actually using it to build factory buildings and factories; a small number of village officials even help do the villagers' work and become accomplices in illegal occupation of arable land
-
How to Maintain Brand Vitality? A Practical Guide
A popular song from ten years ago, "Wind Up the Clockwork," sang that the pace of love must not slacken, for once it slackens it will not succeed. Over these years, in our country's ever-growing agricultural produce market, quite a few agricultural product brands have risen to fame only to fall like meteors,
-
How can the agricultural film industry grow from big to strong?
To meet the needs of agricultural production, after years of technological innovation and scientific research and development, China's agricultural plastics products industry has created several world firsts: the world's number one in agricultural film production; the world's number one in agricultural film coverage area, of which plastic mulching film coverage area is 380 million mu,
-
El Niño Arrives: Responding Scientifically to Achieve Stable Grain Output and Increased Income
The bulk of the year's grain production lies in the autumn grain, and the key to securing a bumper harvest lies in disaster prevention and mitigation. As the main flood season has now arrived, in order to actively and effectively respond to the El Niño phenomenon and safeguard autumn grain production, the Ministry of Agriculture recently issued the "Plan for Scientifically Responding to El Niño to Achieve Disaster Resistance and a Bumper Harvest
-
Oilseed market adapts actively to achieve revitalization
This year the national temporary rapeseed storage policy was cancelled, and lacking government support, processing enterprises and growers are all in a state of confusion, with the new rapeseed purchase market sluggish. In addition, according to forecasts by the National Grain and Oils Information Center, in 2015 China's soybean planting area is 6.1 million hectares, an expected decrease of
-
How to Accelerate the Innovative Development of the Organic Agriculture Industry
1. Current Status of China's Organic Industry As of the end of 2013, China's organic plant product production area was about 2 million hectares (organic cultivation area of 1.28 million hectares, accounting for 0.95% of arable land), ranking fourth in the world. At present, China has more than 7,000 organic production enterprises, with certified product value of 81.6 billion yuan, and certified organic product sales of about 30 billion yuan, with products mainly consisting of grain, vegetables and tea.
-
Modern agriculture actively pursues IT upgrades and precisely connects production with sales
As a hot field of "Internet Plus," modern agriculture has begun to actively pursue IT upgrades, innovate product circulation formats and precisely connect production with sales. Driven by policy, the integration of agricultural infrastructure and IT is expected to keep accelerating, and many internet companies
条件筛选