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Global rapeseed production cuts basically confirmed, rapeseed meal prices should not be overly bearish
Although autumn has arrived and the aquaculture industry is entering its final stage, which will weaken rapeseed meal consumption, the crushing operations of oil mills are on the verge of loss, the number of rapeseed arrivals at ports has decreased somewhat, and with the National Day holiday approaching, domestic oil mills are not highly motivated to produce, so domestic rapeseed meal supply
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Why did soybean meal futures prices rebound against the trend when overall feed consumption was declining?
Recently, soybean meal prices followed the US market in a major rebound, and judging from soybean and soybean meal inventories, the massive arrivals of soybeans did not put much pressure on inventories. Therefore, looking only at protein prices, domestic demand seems to be doing quite well. Is that really the case?
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Soybean Meal Resumes Uptrend as Market Panic Subsides
Affected by the Greek sovereign debt crisis and the sharp decline in the Chinese stock market, Dalian soybean meal futures fell sharply last Wednesday and Thursday. However, as the risk of Greece exiting the eurozone decreased and the Chinese stock market stabilized and rebounded, the panic sentiment in the commodity market temporarily eased, and Dalian soybean meal futures resumed their uptrend.
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Why is the fishmeal market once again failing to thrive in peak season?
It is now early July, and the fishmeal market is about to enter its annual peak consumption season. However, judging from the current situation on both the supply and demand sides of fishmeal, this year's fishmeal market may continue to play out the curse of a peak season that fails to thrive. Over the two years of 2013 and 2014, in July
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Soybean meal market faces pullback pressure after weather-driven speculation
Over the past two months, soybean meal futures contracts have seen a sharp decline followed by a rapid rebound, and the current price is already close to the high at the start of the decline. Does this mean the soybean meal market has already reversed? First, let us analyze the reasons for the earlier decline in soybean meal: First, sluggish domestic demand for soybean meal led to price declines. Weak demand in the livestock and aquaculture industry constrained soybean meal consumption. China's hog inventory and breeding sow inventory fell sharply year on year; prices of meat, eggs and poultry were sluggish, and farming losses were severe; demand in aquaculture slowed, constraining demand for protein meal. Second, soybean meal supply increased substantially, spot prices fell sharply, some basis contracts faced default risk, and selling off occurred.</P><P> Now let us look at the reasons for the rapid rise in soybean meal. The author believes that the rise in soybean meal came partly from a return of prices after the earlier excessive decline; on the other hand, it came from speculation driven by heavy rain in the main U.S. soybean producing areas, which caused market concern about U.S. soybean planted area and good-to-excellent ratings. The planted area data and weekly soybean good-to-excellent ratings data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 30 both confirmed the market's concerns about U.S. soybean planting. These data will, in the short term, still support U.S. soybean futures in maintaining high-level oscillation, which will substantially raise the cost of China's imported soybeans, forcing crushing plants to passively raise the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil.</P><P> But in the short term, speculation over the impact of severe weather on planting may cool somewhat, and the loose fundamentals will bring great pressure on soybean meal prices.</P><P> From the perspective of soybean meal supply, global soybean supply is ample. After U.S. soybeans hit a record high last year, soybean output in Argentina and Brazil also hit record highs, which will suppress legume prices over the medium and long term. Domestically, China's soybean imports in June may reach 8.53 million tons and in July reach 8 million tons, so soybean sources are very abundant; at present, the operating rate of domestic crushing plants remains at an extremely high level of about 54%, and soybean meal supply has recently remained high. The volume of domestic rapeseed meal and imported DDGS remains high, suppressing plant protein prices.</P><P> On the demand side, although the hog farming industry currently shows restocking demand, truly driving soybean meal consumption may still require waiting for hog inventory data to stop falling and rebound before it can be confirmed. The meat, egg and poultry farming industry remains sluggish. Due to oversupply, prices of meat poultry and eggs fell sharply earlier, severely dampening the enthusiasm of farming enterprises to restock. In aquaculture, because oversupply last year led to sharp price declines, pond stock levels in the south are relatively high this year, constraining the release of fry. Recently, rainfall has been excessive, feed placement in ponds has decreased, which is bearish for meal consumption. Later, as large quantities of stocked fish are sold, demand for protein meal from newly released fry may decline substantially, so demand for protein meal from aquaculture later is also worrying.</P><P> Based on the information on both supply and demand, the author believes that soybean meal supply and demand will remain loose, and after the bullish U.S. heavy rain weather factor is fully priced in, soybean meal prices will return to fundamentals in the short term, with the possibility of oscillating pullbacks.</P></p>
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Agricultural machinery cooperative launches menu-style contract farming service
At the end of September, the critical period for late rice grain filling, Leng Weiguo, a major grain grower in Wangjiadi Village, Longguangqiao Town, Heshan District, Yiyang City, Hunan Province, rarely went to the fields to busy himself, spending most of his time at the Huimin Agricultural Machinery Cooperative maintaining farm machinery. His rice will be harvested in mid-October.
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Rapeseed purchase and storage policy expected to continue
The rapeseed meal market has reached a critical period, and where the market goes from here has become a matter of considerable concern among industry insiders. In the author's view, after a long period of sideways oscillation, the rapeseed meal futures and spot markets have limited room for short-term decline and are expected to oscillate upward. Rapeseed purchase and storage poli
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Heavy soybean meal supply pressure, sell on rebounds
On the 11th, the soybean meal 1509 contract showed an oscillating trend. As of the close, the soybean meal 1509 contract edged lower, settling at 2733 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day's settlement price, while open interest increased by 45980 contracts to 4101558 contracts. Before the USDA released its latest soybean supply and demand report,
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Soybean Meal Prices Tentatively Stabilize and Improve, But the Breeding Industry Has Not Yet Substantially Recovered
Recently, driven by factors such as feed enterprises stocking up and a decline in oil mills' operating rates, soybean meal has shown a moderate upward trend. In addition, imported soybean arrivals at ports are lower than the same period last year, which may lead to a phased shortage of raw material supply at some oil mills after the holiday, and soybean meal market circulation
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Soybean meal market remains sluggish, still a long way from emerging from the cold winter
Since January, due to the favorable bumper harvest prospects in South American soybean producing regions, global soybean supply pressure has increased significantly. In mid-January, the main US soybean contract fell below the 1000 cents/bushel integer mark and continued to decline. It is expected that US soybeans will continue to test the 900 cents/bushel support level in the future. With US soybeans remaining weak, Dalian soybean meal can hardly stay unaffected and will continue to follow US soybeans downward.
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