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If silage corn is to grow, later-stage purchasing must keep up
In recent years, friends abroad would always ask me before returning home whether I needed them to bring back some milk powder. Six or seven years have passed since the melamine incident, and the national dairy industry is gradually recovering from the heavy blow. The dairy industry and the livestock industry are inextricably linked to agriculture, especially grain production.
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Why have corn prices fallen, and how big is the impact on farmers?
After a heavy snowfall, a grain broker came to the home of corn grower Zhao Jincheng to inspect the grain. "Now it has to be graded as third-class; it doesn't make second-class." "If it's third-class, after deducting freight and delivering it to the destination, it can only sell for 0.71 yuan." The corn price fell from 0.90 yuan per jin in 2014 to 0.71 yuan per jin this year. Neighbors and relatives all stored their corn, waiting to see how the price would move. But Zhao Jincheng urgently needed money, so he had to sell even at a low price, because he still had a loan to repay as soon as possible.
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Coexistence of Bullish and Bearish Factors: Corn Market Unlikely to Perform Well
Currently, the domestic corn market can be described as having a coexistence of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, China's temporary storage corn procurement continues in full swing, but the market's interpretation of it is becoming increasingly rational. With temporary storage corn inventories about to break through the 200 million ton mark, the Dalian corn futures price has touched the policy ceiling level
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Corn price fluctuation risks remain in the outlook, North China market needs caution
Since mid-December, corn prices in the North China production area have fluctuated quite frequently, overall going through a process of decline-rebound-decline. On one hand, the weather improved, corn supply in North China recovered quickly, and enterprises saw increased arrivals, but downstream demand could not absorb it effectively, and the market pattern shifted again from a period of tight supply to a situation of oversupply, with prices continuing to fall reasonably as the market expected. On the other hand, grain moisture content was relatively high, and enterprises interested in low-moisture grain sources were forced to raise purchase prices, which in turn drove prices to stop falling and stabilise, and combined with increased outflow of some grain sources, prices in some areas even rebounded slightly. As of now, the ex-factory price of 14.5% moisture third-grade corn at deep-processing enterprises in Weifang, Shandong is 1880-1940 yuan/tonne, down about 20 yuan/tonne from last weekend, with a few enterprises seeing slightly larger declines; the ex-factory price in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is around 1740 yuan/tonne, down about 20 yuan/tonne from last weekend. It is expected that in the short term North China corn will remain stable with a weak bias, and prices will fall more in areas where farmers are more active in selling grain.
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