Large-scale collapse crisis looms; the central government has not included it in the Disaster Prevention and Protection Act; Lushan hot spring warning; the county magistrate turns a blind eye
The Central Geological Survey of the Ministry of Economic Affairs spent nearly 6 years and found that 84 settlements in Taiwan are located near "large-scale collapse potential areas", where they may face the same threat as Xiaolin Village. Among them, Lushan Hot Spring in Nantou and Cingjing Farm are both high-risk areas. However, when the Central Geological Survey went to Nantou last week to give a briefing, County Magistrate Lin Ming-chen retorted that "Lushan cannot possibly collapse in one piece like Xiaolin Village," and he also planned to continue developing tourism at Cingjing Farm. With the crisis at hand, the local officials turned a blind eye, leaving central disaster prevention personnel able only to sigh in helplessness. (Image source: Soil and Water Conservation Bureau, Council of Agriculture)
In addition, the causes that trigger large-scale collapse may be heavy rain, earthquakes, river erosion and so on, which are too difficult to predict, and to date it has not yet been included under the scope of the Disaster Prevention and Protection Act. Coupled with the fact that the Ministry of Environment and Resources has not yet been established, research and prevention of large-scale collapse are scattered among the Central Geological Survey of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Council of Agriculture and other ministries. The National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction can only play the role of information coordinator and cannot, like the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau in managing debris flows, invest manpower and funding over many years and draw up comprehensive remediation plans; it has great skills but no way to deploy them.
Chou Kuo-hsiang, director of the Office of Disaster Prevention and Protection of the Executive Yuan, said that large-scale collapse cannot be handled like debris flow, using rainfall to determine when to act. However, many large-scale collapse areas are adjacent to debris flow warning streams, so at the current stage they still refer to data from local rainfall stations to decide when to evacuate.
But he also admitted frankly that in the long term, converting large-scale collapse areas into administrative operations, such as restricting development, still has a certain degree of difficulty, and they can only provide information to local governments for reference.
Large-scale collapse may stay silent, but when it strikes it shocks everyone. Yet the most difficult problem is that no one can judge when it will happen. Chen Chen-yu, director of the Debris Flow Disaster Prevention Center of the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau, Council of Agriculture, described large-scale collapse as being like G6PD deficiency, "it may only be triggered after eating certain things."
In fact, large-scale collapse potential areas are not impossible to prevent and treat. Take Lishan as an example: the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau discovered large-scale landslides there as early as 1990. Because the downstream area is Deji Reservoir, if it collapses it could block and breach the dam, affecting thousands upon thousands of people. Therefore the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau specifically dug underground drainage channels to divert groundwater away. Chen Chen-yu said that monitoring over the past ten years has shown no sliding phenomenon at Lishan.
Facing large-scale collapse, it is better to err on the side of caution
Village relocation and restrictions on development involve a complex social environment and political maneuvering, making stronger public education on disaster prevention an urgent task.
"There must be 'pictures for the truth,'" said Chang Chih-hsin, section chief of the slope land section at the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction. By showing the full picture of the mountain area, residents will realize that the place where they live is only a tiny dot, and develop disaster prevention awareness. But this is not meant to completely restrict tourism development; it may mean suspending business during typhoons and heavy rain to ensure personal safety.
The Central Geological Survey also suggested that for settlements in high and medium potential areas, local governments should routinely establish household registers and designate safe shelters; for low potential areas, long-term planning should be carried out to grasp sliding trends.
Facing backlash from local governments, Chi Tsung-chi said bluntly that no one knows when large-scale collapse will actually happen. If triggered by an earthquake, it may collapse very quickly; if by rain, it will be slower. Therefore estimates are made based on the greatest possibility. "It is better to err on the side of caution; otherwise, by the time it slides down, it will be too late." People need to understand this information, otherwise they easily underestimate the power of nature.
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