Beyond US beef, full dependence on the US for grain is equally worrying

While the whole nation dissects layer by layer the impact of American beef on human health and on domestic livestock production, the food security and trade dependency issues hidden beneath are even more unexpected and startling.

Food security can be simply divided into whether food is safe for human health and whether the food supply is sufficient. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) defines food security as "when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life." From this it is clear that "safe" and "sufficient" are the two major criteria of food security. The American beef issue, or the earlier plasticizer and melamine scandals, all point directly at the safety dimension of food, but the public seems to have overlooked the more serious food supply problem hidden behind it.

The United States is our largest source of rice imports

According to the Council of Agriculture's "Food Supply and Demand Annual Report," in 2010 the food consumed per person per day in our country converted to calories was 2,754 calories, with grains (including rice, wheat, corn, sorghum, etc.) accounting for 29.42%, oils and fats (including soybean oil, peanut oil, sesame oil, lard, butter, etc.) accounting for 20.31%, and meat (including pork, beef, mutton, poultry, etc.) accounting for 13.57%. These three categories of food are the main sources of caloric intake for our people. However, what is hard to feel at ease about is that in 2010 grain imports already accounted for 93.44% of our country's consumption, oils and fats for 50.07%, and even meat reached 18.76%. This clearly shows that our country's food is highly dependent on imports, and the food supply is exposed to the risks of international food price shocks and fluctuations in international food supply and demand, forming a serious hidden concern for our country's food security.

Source: Council of Agriculture, Food Supply and Demand Annual Report

In 2010 rice accounted for 16.48% of our people's caloric intake, of which 14.3% was supplied by imported rice. Surprisingly, from the Agriculture and Food Agency's "Production, Marketing and Import/Export Volume and Value of Major Agricultural Products in the Taiwan Area," it can be found that the largest source country of rice imports is not Thailand or Vietnam but the United States. American rice accounts for about 55% of imported rice, while Thailand and Vietnam account for only 14% and 13% respectively. A simple calculation shows that the United States supplies 1.29% of our people's caloric intake through rice.

Changes in import value of rice from source countries over the years ( Source: Customs import/export data, commodity import/export statistics by country, unit: NT$ thousands)

30.29% of Taiwan's daily per-person calories are provided by food imported from the United States

Wheat accounts for 11.91% of our people's caloric intake and is almost entirely imported. The United States is likewise the main source of our wheat imports, accounting for 65% of all imports, followed by Australia, which accounts for 27% of our wheat imports. Again by simple calculation, the United States supplies 7.74% of our people's caloric needs through wheat.

Our country's corn production is also negligible, and it is likewise mainly supplied by the United States, accounting for 63% of all imports, followed by Brazil at 24%. Corn is almost entirely used as feed and therefore does not directly supply calories. However, in 2010 our country's total food feed was 4,927,864 tons, with corn accounting for about 90.5%. Corn imported from the United States actually supplied 57% of our country's food feed. Domestically produced meat, dairy and eggs account for 11.02%, 1.97% and 2.21% of our people's daily per-person caloric intake, totaling 15.20%. If feed affects the food supply of these three categories in the same proportion, then corn supplied by the United States actually supplies 9.58% of our people's daily per-person caloric needs.

The main foods supplying our country's calories also include oils and fats and meat, accounting for 20.31% and 13.57% of our people's daily per-person caloric intake. Among oils and fats, the one supplying the most calories is soybean oil, accounting for 12.06% of daily per-person caloric intake, and it is entirely domestically produced. But if one observes the supply situation of soybeans, it can be found that in 2010 the domestic soybean supply was 2.28 million tons, all imported from abroad, of which 1.83 million tons was for processing use, meaning that the soybean raw material for domestically produced soybean oil is entirely supplied from abroad. Our country's soybeans are likewise mainly supplied by the United States, which accounts for 60% of imports, followed by Brazil at 34%. The calories obtained from eating soybeans account for 5.4% of daily per-person caloric intake. Adding the 12.06% supplied by soybean oil, soybeans directly and indirectly supply 17.46% of our country's caloric needs, and the United States supplies 10.48% of our people's calories through soybeans.

Meat contributes 13.57% of calories, and imports account for 18.76%. According to customs statistics, in 2010 the value of meat imported from the United States accounted for 48% of the value of meat imports, likewise the highest among all countries, followed by Australia and New Zealand at 22% and 17% respectively. By simple calculation, the United States supplies 1.2% of our people's caloric needs through direct meat sales.

Calculating only rice, wheat, corn, soybeans and meat, it can be found that the United States supplies 30.29% of our people's daily per-person calories. What kind of concept is this? According to Council of Agriculture statistics, in 2010 our country's food self-sufficiency rate calculated on a calorie-weighted basis was 31.7%, meaning that the calories supplied by the United States to our people are almost no different from our country's domestically produced food, or may even be greater (not yet counting other foods). To put it politely, this situation can be described as over-dependence on the United States in trade; to put it subjectively, the United States is in fact our country's potential food parent. Interestingly, what about mainland China, which we fear the most? The fact is that country is utterly insignificant in our country's food supply.

Figure15 Trend of our country's food self-sufficiency rate Source: Council of Agriculture, Food Supply and Demand Annual Reports over the years

Taiwan's food self-sufficiency rate is gradually being swallowed up by the United States

Rome was not built in a day. Over the past 20 years our country's food self-sufficiency rate fell from 40.2% in 1993 to 31.7% in 2010, an average decline of 0.53% per year. The decline from 2003 to 2005 was the most alarming, dropping rapidly from 35.8% to 30.4% in three years. After our country joined the WTO in December 2001, rice imports grew from 7,000 metric tons to 123,000 tons in 2002. According to customs statistics, the import value of American rice soared from NT$2 million to NT$560 million, the largest increase among all countries, and it has led by a wide margin ever since.

And our country's rice self-sufficiency rate finally plunged from over 100% in 2004 to around 90%. Our country produces almost no wheat. The import value of American wheat grew slowly from 1992 to 2006, then surged in 2007, and by 2011 the import value of American wheat had increased 2.95 times compared with 20 years earlier. Our country's domestically produced corn still accounted for more than 20% of our supply (= demand) in 1992, but began a sharp decline in 1997 and now accounts for only 5%. Wheat imported from the United States began increasing at a rate of about 4% per year in 1998, and in 2011 was up 64% compared with 1998. Our country's domestically produced meat began a sharp decline in 1996, with the domestic production ratio plunging from over 100% to around 80%, while American meat imports grew substantially, increasing 3.63 times from 1996 to 2011.

Perhaps opinions differ on the effects of ractopamine on the human body, but these data clearly tell us that Taiwan's food self-sufficiency rate is gradually and rapidly being swallowed up by the United States.

Last year the Council of Agriculture convened the "National Food Security Conference" and set the goal that our country's food self-sufficiency rate should reach 40% by 2020. However, in the past 20 years our country's food self-sufficiency rate reached 40.2% only in 1993, and the United States has already grasped more than 30% of the calorie supply. To increase from the current 31.7% by 8.3% will inevitably require trade coordination with the United States. But if even American beef, which raises health concerns, is difficult to keep outside our national gates, how can American rice, American wheat, American corn, American soybeans, American pork, American chicken and American mutton be kept out?

OECD countries subsidize agriculture by about US$300 billion a year, close to Taiwan's annual GDP; and the United States alone subsidizes US$15-25 billion, equivalent to 3-5 times Taiwan's agricultural output value. If the government lacks the resolve, it can naturally only be defeated in this "free trade," and what is sacrificed? Only the health of Taiwanese people? Or also our "food sovereignty"? If the United States' "free trade" means sacrificing Taiwanese people's health and long-term "food sovereignty," then why should we scramble to throw open our national gates!

In early 2004 the United States had its first outbreak of a new type of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (mad cow disease). Countries turned pale at the mention of American beef, and the severity was such that the Taiwan government completely banned American beef imports in early 2004. That year the import value of American beef plunged from NT$2.7 billion in 2003 to NT$100 million. However, the government rushed to lift the ban on April 16, 2005. In June the United States again discovered a domestic mad cow disease case, and the government had no choice but to ban it again, only to quickly lift the ban again half a year later.

According to the regulations of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), an area confirmed as a mad cow disease epidemic area must have no further outbreaks within its territory over the next seven years, and must pass OIE review and confirmation, before it can be removed from the list of mad cow disease epidemic areas. At present the United States is still considered a mad cow disease epidemic area, but after 2005 the import value of American beef into our country grew rapidly at an average annual rate of 30%, reaching NT$5.7 billion in 2011, 4.3 times that of 2005 and 53.7 times that of 2004.

Mad cow disease is certainly more frightening than leanness-enhancing drugs, but amnesia is even more frightening. After a good sleep, one really may not remember which two hundred years ago mad cow disease was. And precisely because the people are forgetful or lack sufficient information, the government should act as the gatekeeper. Now is it going to be handed over to the people to choose for themselves again?

American beef is really just the tip of the iceberg; the truth is even more terrifying!

Note: The above data are all obtained from the Council of Agriculture's "Food Supply and Demand Annual Report," the Agriculture and Food Agency's "Production, Marketing and Import/Export Volume and Value of Major Agricultural Products in the Taiwan Area," and customs import/export data.