Peru blueberry 2026/27 season export forecast cut to 382,000 tonnes; El Niño shrinks peak week by 21%
According to reports, the Peruvian Blueberry Growers and Exporters Association (Proarándanos) has lowered its fourth forecast for fresh blueberry exports in the 2026/27 season to about 382,000 tonnes, more than 5% below the 404,000 tonnes forecast in August and roughly flat against the 383,000 tonnes exported in the previous season.
The season actually got off to a decent start. As of week 35, Peru's cumulative blueberry exports reached 95,000 tonnes, up 48% from 64,000 tonnes in the same period of the previous season. Cumulative exports already account for 25% of the latest forecast total, whereas at the same point last season the share was only about 17%.
But the shortfall is concentrated in the remainder of the season. From week 36 to the end of the season, the previous season exported about 318,000 tonnes, while the same period this season is expected to yield only about 286,000 tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%. The export peak is currently expected in week 42 at about 16,500 tonnes, 16% below the August forecast and 21% below the previous season's peak week of 20,900 tonnes.
Proarándanos noted that the sharp downward revision to the peak export week is the clearest signal of El Niño's impact on production in the mid-to-late part of the season. The export growth in the early part of the season was mainly driven by the rollout of early-maturing varieties and expanded planting area, while the adverse climate effects will be concentrated in the mid-to-late season.
The organic blueberry forecast has been lowered in step: final exports are expected to fall from about 31,000 tonnes to 25,000 tonnes, down about 18% from the August forecast. The export peak is expected in week 48 at about 1,200 tonnes, well below the previous season's peak of 1,900 tonnes in week 40.
Proarándanos cautioned that, as adverse weather continues, further downward revisions cannot be ruled out, and the association will release its fifth assessment report for the 2026/27 season in October.