Is the pork price hike real or not? Ten years of data show that people won't pay more for pork

By Lin Yijun and Yang Yuyun, reporters for Upstream and Downstream

With only one month left until the Lunar New Year, it is the season for buying New Year goods, yet word has spread in various circles that pork prices in Taiwan are rising. Reporters from Upstream and Downstream verified hog prices and consumer-end meat stalls and restaurants along two separate lines of inquiry, and found that the rise in hog prices is still within a reasonable range. An analysis of hog prices before the Lunar New Year over the past ten years shows they ranged from about 64 yuan to 81 yuan per kg. Today's island-wide average hog trading price of 76.11 yuan, although on the high side, is still within a reasonable increase.

And have consumers really paid more to buy and eat pork? Pork stalls and several large restaurants all said that a slight rise in pork prices before the New Year is normal, that businesses will absorb it themselves, and that they will not raise end prices because of it, so consumers need not worry too much.

At the same time, however, rising international feed prices have pushed up domestic pig-farming costs. Pig farmers worry that pork prices will fall after the New Year while costs rise, and they cannot feel happy about this wave of adjustment.

Rumblings of a pork price hike? Chen Chi-chung: Seasonal demand rises before the New Year

Since Taiwan opened up to ractopamine pork, not to mention it crossing the national border, currently no operator has placed an order at all, yet consumers have already launched a major boycott of American pork, which has in turn affected the reputation of all imported pork. To win back public support, operators have not only stressed one after another that they use Taiwan pork, but stores that previously used imported pork have also changed course and joined the ranks of Taiwan pork users.

However, operators adjusted prices on the grounds of the price gap between imported pork and Taiwan pork. For example, a roast meat bento shop in New Taipei City and a Thai restaurant in Kaohsiung raised prices by 5-10 yuan respectively, drawing public criticism. Amid a chorus of condemnation from netizens, the trend also spread to the retail market, and claims that pork prices had recently risen too sharply became widespread, as if domestic pork were taking advantage of this wave of "patriotism plus food-safety concerns" to jack up prices, with end consumers the victims.

Facing grievances on all sides, Council of Agriculture Minister Chen Chi-chung stressed that pork consumption rises sharply before the New Year, so pork prices naturally rise. This is seasonal demand, and compared with the same period in previous years, it is still within a reasonable range.

Analyzing hog prices before the Lunar New Year over the past ten years, the current increase is within a reasonable range

Today (the 13th), there are still 28 days until the Lunar New Year. Upstream and Downstream extended the time axis for analysis and found that over the past ten years, the average hog trading price in the month before the Lunar New Year ranged from about 64 yuan to 81 yuan per kg, with a ten-year average of 70.69 yuan/kg (standard deviation 4.97). Today's island-wide average hog price of 76.11 yuan, although on the high side, is still within a reasonable increase.

Ms. Chang of the Dongmen pork shop said that pork prices naturally rise before the New Year and during the summer vacation, and hog prices once soared to more than 80 yuan per kg, so the current pork price is not considered high.

Mr. Lu, a veteran meat vendor at Qingguang Market and a member of the meat association, said that 70-plus yuan is the average price, but to buy top-grade goods, you need more than 80 yuan per kg. When the meat association met in December, it had estimated that domestic pork prices before the New Year would