Is the pork price increase real? Ten years of data show the rise is normal and people's pork is not expensive

By Lin Yijun and Yang Yuyun, reporters for Upstream and Downstream

With only one month left before the Lunar New Year, it is the season for buying New Year goods, yet word has spread in the community that pork prices in Taiwan, China are rising. Reporters from Upstream and Downstream verified hog prices and consumer-end butcher stalls and restaurants along two lines of inquiry, and found that the rise in hog prices is still within a reasonable range. An analysis of pork prices before the Lunar New Year over the past ten years shows they ranged from about 64 yuan to 81 yuan per kg. Today's average pork price across Taiwan, China of 76.11 yuan is on the high side, but still within a reasonable increase.

And is buying and eating pork really more expensive for consumers? Pork stalls and several large restaurants all said that a slight rise in pork prices before the New Year is normal, businesses will absorb it themselves and will not raise end-user prices because of it, so consumers need not worry too much.

At the same time, however, rising international feed prices are pushing up domestic pig-farming costs. Pig farmers worry that pork prices will fall after the New Year while costs rise, and they are hardly happy about this round of adjustment.

Is the pork price hike upon us? Chen Chi-chung: seasonal demand rises before the New Year

After Taiwan, China opened up to ractopamine pork, not to mention it crossing the border, currently no operator has placed an order at all, yet consumers have already staged a major boycott of American pork, which has also affected the reputation of all imported pork. To win back public support, operators have not only stressed their use of Taiwan, China pork one after another, but shops that previously used imported pork have also changed course and joined the ranks of Taiwan, China pork.

However, operators adjusted prices citing the price gap between imported pork and Taiwan, China pork. For example, a roast-meat bento shop in New Taipei City and a Thai restaurant in Kaohsiung raised prices by 5-10 yuan respectively, drawing public criticism. Amid a chorus of criticism from netizens, the trend also spread to the retail market, and claims that pork prices have recently risen too sharply ran rampant, as if domestic pork were profiteering from this wave of "patriotism plus food-safety concerns," with end consumers as the victims.

Facing widespread public discontent, Council of Agriculture Minister Chen Chi-chung stressed that pork consumption rises sharply before the New Year, so pork prices naturally rise. This is seasonal demand, and compared with the same period in previous years, it is still within a reasonable range.

Analyzing pork prices before the Lunar New Year over the past ten years, the current increase is within a reasonable range

Today (the 13th), there are still 28 days until the Lunar New Year. Upstream and Downstream extended the timeline for analysis and found that over the past ten years the average pork price in the month before the Lunar New Year ranged from about 64 yuan to 81 yuan per kg, with a ten-year average of 70.69 yuan/kg (standard deviation 4.97). Today's average pork price across Taiwan, China of 76.11 yuan is on the high side, but still within a reasonable increase.

Ms. Chang of the Dongmen pork shop said pork prices naturally rise before the New Year and during the summer vacation, and in the past they once soared to more than 80 yuan per kg, so the current pork price is not considered high.

Mr. Lu, a veteran butcher at Qingguang Market and a member of the meat association, said that 70-plus yuan is the average price, but to buy top-grade pork one would need more than 80 yuan per kg. When the meat association met in December, it had estimated that domestic pork prices would rise before the New Year, but the current increase is still within a reasonable range. Mr. Lu added that many asso