Taiwan pomelo production is estimated to drop 10% this year, but the Agriculture and Food Agency says it is still 6% more than in an average year.

In the warm winter at the start of this year, many fruit trees were affected by the climate and failed to flower, with lychee and longan trees losing up to 70% of their production. Recently, some pomelo farmers have also found that the fruit-setting rate of pomelos has been slightly affected. On the 6th, the Agriculture and Food Agency announced its June fruit production forecast, indicating that pomelo production may fall nearly 10% compared with last year. However, the Tainan District Agricultural Research and Extension Station said consumers need not be overly alarmed, because last year was the highest point for pomelo harvests in Tainan in ten years. Although production has declined slightly this year, if the harvest period is not affected by natural disasters, domestic supply will be sufficient.

According to the Agriculture and Food Agency's 2018 agricultural survey information, Tainan City ranks first in domestic pomelo planting area with 1,098.46 hectares, and the second-largest production area is Hualien County, with about 1,013 hectares. Taiwan totals 4,209.5 hectares, with output reaching about 79,500 metric tons. However, because the number of flowers decreased slightly this year and rain during pollination affected fruit setting, the Agriculture and Food Agency estimates that output will come to 72,562 metric tons, equivalent to a 9% decrease. But compared with the average-year output of 68,675 metric tons, that counts as a 6% increase.

Zhang Wenzhao, an associate researcher at the Tainan District Agricultural Research and Extension Station, said that last year, because the Tainan production area encountered no natural disasters during the growing period and the harvest period was concentrated, output surged and prices were severely affected. This year, pomelos are in the fruit-setting stage and output cannot yet be determined; judging by the average fruit-setting rate, although it is slightly lower than last year, it is still considered normal. Another major domestic production area is in Hualien County. Liu Qixiang, an assistant researcher at the Hualien District Agricultural Research and Extension Station, said that based on the average fruit-setting rate, output may also decline slightly by 10% compared with last year. However, individual orchards vary greatly this year, and some orchards are in normal condition or even doing quite well, so it is hard to assert that the drop in fruit-setting rates in some orchards is due to temperature.

The ripening period of pomelos usually falls around the lunar solar term "White Dew," and after harvest they must undergo 1 to 2 weeks of "resting" before they taste good. But this year White Dew falls on September 8, less than a week before the Mid-Autumn Festival on September 13. In order to catch the strongest buying period of the Mid-Autumn Festival, will early harvesting affect the taste of pomelos?

Zhang Wenzhao said that at the start of this year, some farmers had already begun preparing in advance for the festival, moving the pollination period of pomelos several weeks earlier so that the harvest period could be brought forward to mid-to-late August, still maintaining a certain quality and shipping before the Mid-Autumn Festival. In addition, in the Hualien production area, where the harvest period is later, Liu Qixiang said that cultivation methods such as fertilizer and water management can now be used to improve the growth condition of pomelos and flexibly adjust the harvest period. Therefore, even though the solar term is close to the Mid-Autumn Festival, when buying is strongest, shipping can still be adjusted to a suitable time.

The Mid-Autumn Festival is the peak period for domestic pomelo prices, and sales decline once the festival passes. Yao Zhiwang, head of the Southern Branch of the Agriculture and Food Agency, said that because pomelos are a fruit that stores well, in recent years the Agriculture and Food Agency has also advised the public to think of pomelos not only for Mid-Autumn Festival gifts, since they taste just as good after the festival, hoping to increase people's willingness to buy. In addition, the Agriculture and Food Agency is also actively guiding orchards in some areas unsuitable for growing pomelos to switch to other emerging citrus varieties, appropriately reducing the pomelo planting area and adjusting output.