Fengcheng City 2009 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival hog market analysis and pre-Spring Festival trends
I. Analysis of hog market operations during the two festivals
According to monitoring results from monitoring points such as designated hog slaughterhouses, pork sales markets, and supermarkets throughout Fengcheng City by the city's Commerce Management Office,2009during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays this year, pork consumption in our city was robust and market prices were stable.
In terms of market prices, during the two festivals this year the average ex-factory price of hogs in our city was12.4yuan/per kg, the average wholesale price of pork was18.4yuan/per kg, the average market retail price of pork belly was16.76yuan/per kg, and the average price of lean meat was22.96yuan/per kg, while in the same period last year the average ex-factory price of hogs was13.00yuan/per kg, the average wholesale price of pork was20.00yuan/per kg, the average market retail price of pork belly was19.76yuan/per kg, and the average price of lean meat was26.76yuan/per kg; this year's prices fell compared with the same period last year by4.62%，8.00%，15.18%and14.20%。
In terms of pork consumption, this year the two festivals featured the first8-day long holiday, while last year the Mid-Autumn Festival was on9month14day, separated from National Day by a relatively long period, and the holidays had a certain positive effect on residents' consumption. During the two festivals this year, the average daily slaughter volume at designated slaughterhouses in our city's urban area was162head, which was149head more than the average daily slaughter volume of13head in the same period last year; the average daily pork supply from designated slaughterhouses in the urban area was14679.61kg, which was13001.27kg more than1678.34kg in the same period last year.
Overall, falling market prices and holiday consumption habits stimulated residents' purchasing power, boosting pork consumption and increasing slaughter volume.
II.2010Forecast of the hog market before the Spring Festival.
At present, the main factors affecting hog prices are:
1Corn prices have continued to rise. Since entering10month, domestic corn prices have risen for the9consecutive month, and the average local corn wholesale price has risen to2004yuan/per ton, up3.03%month-on-month, up4.62%year-on-year, and up13.33%。
2compared with the beginning of the year. As our city has now entered the autumn and winter seasons, people have the habit of making sausages and curing bacon, and combined with the stimulus of holidays such as New Year's Day and rural temple fairs, the pork market will enter its peak consumption season.
3Central and local purchasing and storage policies support the market. Since the implementation at the beginning of the year of the state's "Emergency Plan for Preventing Excessive Declines in Hog Prices (Interim)", in order to maintain the healthy development of hog production and the pork market, our city also promptly launched live hog reserves, further strengthening the supportive role of policy for the hog market.
Overall, because the current hog-to-grain price ratio is6.08:1and hog prices are near the break-even point, combined with the support for hog prices from corn prices, pork reserves, and the peak sales season, as well as the interaction of farmers concentrating their sales of commercial hogs during the peak sales season, it is expected that2010before the Spring Festival hog prices may fluctuate slightly, and the market retail price of pork will operate steadily.
October0012, 2009