Rex rabbit market changes at the end of 2010 and the direction of the rabbit market in 2011
In 2010, rex rabbit fur prices reached a historic peak: since November 2009, rex rabbit fur prices had been rising all the way, reaching their highest peak in September 2010. At that time, at the Shangcun market, the price of dressed winter fur of 5 jin and above was over 100 yuan per piece. At that time, a phenomenon of winter fur being out of stock appeared at the rabbit trade fair. Afterward, winter fur prices remained relatively stable. Although prices later declined somewhat, that was because fur quality had declined; the prices of high-quality fur did not decline. This price can be said to be the highest in history. At that time, the sales situation for rex rabbit fur was excellent, dealers made a fortune, and farmers were also overjoyed. Those with small farming operations prepared to expand their scale, those who had not farmed rabbits also rushed to get started one after another, and some local government departments even treated rex rabbit farming as a good project to benefit the people and enrich them, established leading enterprises, and carried out publicity with great fanfare.
Entering mid-November 2010, rex rabbit fur prices took a sharp turn downward: sales of all fur garments suddenly stopped. Up to now, depending on quality, rex rabbit fur prices have fallen by 20-30 yuan. The rapid plunge in prices caught dealers off guard. Dealers holding large quantities of fur were restless and anxious to find outlets for the rex rabbit fur in their hands. Dealers whose raw skins were being processed at dyeing and finishing factories were even more frantic, wishing they could leave the factory one day earlier and sell one day earlier. Regarding this decline in rex rabbit fur prices, I summarized two unexpected things for the dealers: the first unexpected thing was that no one expected this year's rex rabbit fur prices could reach such a high level, with slightly better rex rabbit fur nearing 100 yuan, and even an astonishing high price of 150 yuan per piece; the second unexpected thing was that no one expected prices to fall so quickly. It seemed that overnight no one was buying rex rabbit fur anymore, and the speed of the price decline was unexpected.
The reasons for such ups and downs in rex rabbit fur prices in 2011: regarding the earlier rise in rex rabbit fur prices, our analysis mainly points to the following three reasons:
1. The overall rise in raw fur prices. Affected by the financial crisis, in 2008 the prices of all raw fur skins fell sharply and dropped to their lowest point. In 2009, due to improvement in the global economic situation, raw fur prices rose substantially, and fox fur prices nearly doubled. As one type of raw fur material, it was only reasonable that rex rabbit fur prices rose.
2. The stock number of rex rabbits is the main reason determining rex rabbit fur prices. Since 2007-2008, China's rex rabbit stock number has decreased sharply, to less than 30% of that before 2007. In 2009, demand for rex rabbit fur increased greatly, and based on the stock at that time, supply was already seriously insufficient relative to demand. Things are precious when they are scarce, so prices rose; this is a truth known to everyone.
3. Artificial hype since the beginning of winter this year. In October, quite a lot of media spread the claim that the world would experience a once-in-a-thousand-years severe cold. This seemed to bring business opportunities again. Both insiders and outsiders started doing fur business, and processing factories also went full steam ahead in production. Demand for rex rabbit fur increased, which in turn helped push up rex rabbit fur prices.
4. In 2010, rex rabbit fur was increasingly used in fashion clothing and down jackets, mainly in fur collars, edging, and inner linings. Moreover, it was very fashionable and basically reached widespread use. The amount of blue fox and raccoon dog used on fur collars was clearly less than that of rex rabbit. Most importantly, the price of one blue fox fur collar was about 250 yuan, while one whole rex rabbit skin or piece material was only just over 100 yuan. Therefore everyone rushed to buy rex rabbit, and it is not surprising that rex rabbit prices were much higher.
The later decline was mainly due to the following three reasons:
1. After November 2010, not only did rex rabbit fur prices decline somewhat, but the prices of fox, raccoon dog, and mink skins all declined as well. Raccoon dog and mink fell by 30-40 yuan, and fox fur fell even more, by 100-200 yuan. Including the just-concluded Danish auction, the number of categories whose prices fell was much greater than the number that rose, with some skins falling 14%. For categories such as fox fur that were in the auction plan, no announcement was seen on the auction website either. This may also be a signal of declining fur prices.
2. Blocked sales of fur clothing (down jackets) were the main reason for the decline in fur prices. Earlier, due to excessive increases in raw fur prices, clothing prices rose sharply. Down jackets priced above 1,000 yuan could be seen everywhere, but consumers did not accept this. With the bursting of the “once-in-a-thousand-years severe cold” legend and China's current weather conditions, manufacturers and merchants launched discount promotions one after another. Clothing produced earlier had somewhat overshot demand. According to our understanding, manufacturers in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang area would have sold out winter clothing by this time in previous years, but this year's sales situation was completely different from last year. Processing factories closed for holidays early, demand for fur decreased, and prices fell.