Pig prices finally fall from highs - is it a real drop?

    They've fallen, they've fallen - the pig prices that had soared into the clouds have finally come down! Yesterday, the price of live pigs from Longyan to Xiamen fell back to 18.3 yuan/kg, down 2.3 yuan per kg from the peak. However, what reporters learned from the market is that retail pork prices remain firm.

    Down 1 yuan per jin

    Dealing with live pig transportation every day, Ms. Wu, a relevant person in charge at Xiashang Golden Fragrance Food Co., Ltd., knows the recent changes in pig prices like the back of her hand.

    "A while ago, live pig prices once surged to a high of 20.6 yuan/kg, but after the Mid-Autumn Festival, prices began to loosen," Ms. Wu said. Pig prices have now been falling for a month.

    In Ms. Wu's view, this drop in pig prices came somewhat suddenly, because all sides had predicted that pig prices would not fall until after the Spring Festival.

    However, watching pig prices fall, pig farmer Song Tianran actually felt relieved. "Selling a pig for more than 10 yuan per jin is too high." Song Tianran believes that for long-term farmers like them, pig prices being too high is not a good thing, because there is a risk of a "roller-coaster ride."

    Now the price of a jin of live pig is just over 9 yuan. Song Tianran believes this is a relatively reasonable range, because at such a price, raising one pig can still yield a profit of five or six hundred yuan, which is already quite good.

    "We also don't want meat prices to be so expensive that ordinary people can't afford to eat meat," Song Tianran said.

    Multiple factors cause pig prices to fall

    Xiamen's pig prices suddenly fell. Ms. Wu believes this is mainly because domestic live pig supply has rebounded somewhat, and because Guangdong pig traders are coming to Fujian to snap up pigs less frequently.

    "The live pigs that farmers restocked in the first half of the year have now reached the season for being sent to market," Ms. Wu said. This has pushed supply and demand for live pigs in the market toward balance.

    In addition, pig prices in Guangxi have also fallen quite sharply. Once the cost for Guangdong pig traders to stock up in Guangxi is lower than going to Fujian, they will naturally reduce the frequency of coming to Fujian to move pigs, which objectively also helps balance the live pig supply in the Xiamen market.

    However, in the view of pig farmer Mr. Yang, the drop in pig prices also has a disease-related factor. Because this is a time of seasonal transition, it is a period when respiratory diseases in live pigs occur frequently, and signs of live pig disease are emerging in some areas. Some pig farmers, worried about the epidemic, send part of their live pigs to market early, which to a certain extent causes an increase in pig supply in the market.

    Song Tianran believes that the state's regulation of prices a while ago was also an objective factor in the drop in pig prices. "For example, releasing frozen meat reserves into the market objectively reduces demand for live pigs in the market and keeps some live pigs that should have been sent to market from being sold, so pig prices then have a basis for falling," he said.

    A drop in meat prices may still require more waiting

    Although live pig prices have fallen, when Aunt Shen went to the market to buy groceries, she did not clearly feel that pork prices had dropped. ⟦19     "Pork ribs are still selling for 48 yuan/kg, and lean meat costs 30 yuan/kg - no different from before," Aunt Shen said. She believes the price difference in between has all been pocketed by the meat vendors.

    "Pork ribs are still selling for 48 yuan/kg, and lean meat costs 30 yuan/kg too, pretty much the same as before." Auntie Shen believes that the price difference in between is all pocketed by the meat vendors.

    Aunt Shen's suspicion is not groundless. Reporters learned from Xiashang Golden Fragrance that as recent live pig prices have declined, wholesale pork prices have also been lowered somewhat, about 1.5 yuan per kg cheaper than before. This means that pork vendors have indeed had an easier time recently than a while ago.

    Ms. Wu believes that the decline in pig prices is transmitted to the retail market with a time lag, so residents do not feel an obvious drop in meat prices. But for some time to come, residents may still not feel much of a drop in meat prices, because pig prices have now fallen about as far as they can. If pig prices do not continue to fall, the hope for lowering meat prices is also relatively small.

    "In fact, in the period ahead, the possibility of a large increase in live pig supply is not great, yet it is also the peak season for pork consumption, so it may be difficult for pig prices to fall further in the short term," pig farmer Mr. Yang said. He believes that if residents want to eat cheaper pork, they may have to wait a while longer, possibly until after the Spring Festival.