Can ginger prices enter a fast lane of price increases in 2013?

Introduction: A wave of soaring ginger prices in 2010 was jokingly called "Jiang You Jun" by netizens. However, this year the might of "Jiang You Jun" has completely vanished. Especially amid recent increases in the prices of many vegetables, ginger prices have remained persistently sluggish. Quotes from ginger-producing areas such as Changyi in Shandong are about 0.60 yuan to 0.85 yuan per jin, and the wholesale price of ginger per jin in Beijing and other places is only a little more than 1 yuan.

A wave of soaring ginger prices in 2010 was jokingly called "Jiang You Jun" by netizens. However, this year the might of "Jiang You Jun" has completely vanished. Especially amid recent increases in the prices of many vegetables, ginger prices have remained persistently sluggish. Quotes from ginger-producing areas such as Changyi in Shandong are about 0.60 yuan to 0.85 yuan per jin, and the wholesale price of ginger per jin in Beijing and other places is only a little more than 1 yuan.

At the Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market in Beijing, 5 large trucks from Shandong were fully loaded with ginger. There were not many retail merchants coming to buy goods, a light rain was falling, and the wholesalers simply sat inside their vehicles.
"Now the wholesale price of ginger is 1.3 yuan per jin, and the retail price is 1.5 to 1.6 yuan. I can sell about 2,000 jin a day." Retailer Xiao Ji was busy moving bags of ginger onto a truck. When asked about his daily income, he shook his head helplessly: "Ginger prices have been relatively low these two years. Although sales volume is quite large, I cannot make much money. In 2010, each jin of ginger could sell for about 10 yuan. Although I sold only about 400 to 500 jin a day, my income was much higher than this year."

A wave of soaring ginger prices in 2010 was jokingly called "Jiang You Jun" by netizens. However, this year the might of "Jiang You Jun" has completely vanished. Especially amid recent increases in the prices of many vegetables, ginger prices have remained persistently sluggish. Quotes from ginger-producing areas such as Changyi in Shandong are about 0.60 yuan to 0.85 yuan per jin, and the wholesale price of ginger per jin in Beijing and other places is only a little more than 1 yuan.

How did "Jiang You Jun" turn into "Bei Jiang Jun"?
"The main reason for fluctuations in agricultural product prices is changes in supply and demand." Liu Tong, head of the statistics department at the Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market, said, "In 2009, ginger prices were relatively low, and our market sold it for only 0.7 to 0.8 yuan. So in 2010 the ginger planting area decreased, and coupled with the impact of the 'late spring cold,' ginger yield per mu also fell. By August and September, new ginger had not yet come onto the market, and old ginger was almost sold out. Supply was less than demand, and prices soared. After that, encouraged by rising income, farmers expanded the ginger planting area, and with a good year, a large amount of ginger coming onto the market directly drove down the market price."
Shandong, Hunan, Guizhou, Guangxi and other places are China's main ginger-producing areas. According to statistics, before 2008, the national ginger planting area was about 1.5 million mu to 1.8 million mu. In 2009, it expanded to 2.28 million mu, and in 2011, the planting area reached 4.3 million mu. Although this year's planting area has already decreased by about 25% compared with last year, due to the previous large-scale expansion of planting, the current market situation is still one of supply exceeding demand, and prices continue to move lower.
Affected by this, the profit margin in the ginger business is narrowing. "This year the price at which we buy ginger is about a little more than 0.5 yuan per jin, and we add 0.2 yuan and sell it to the next buyer. After deducting transport costs and other costs, there really is not much left." Wholesaler Di Chuantao said with emotion.

"Ginger traders may make relatively little profit this year, but they will not lose money." Liu Tong judged that in this round of sluggish prices, the ones most "hurt" are still ginger farmers. "If the purchase price of ginger per jin is lower than 0.5 to 0.6 yuan, they will definitely lose money."
Speaking of this year's ginger prices, Old Tian, a farmer in Qingzhou, Shandong, paused, then uttered four words: "very unpromising." In 2008, he planted more than 30 mu of ginger, and the price sold to buyers was 2 yuan to 3 yuan per jin, with quite good returns. "The ginger in both last year and this year has been especially hard to sell. Good ginger is only 0.4 to 0.5 yuan, and poor ginger cannot be sold at all. On top of that, fertilizer and labor costs have risen, and the cost per mu of land is more than 6,000 yuan. Now planting ginger loses 3,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan per mu, and it has almost used up all the money earned in previous years." Old Tian's words revealed helplessness: "Sell one jin and lose money on one jin, but if I do not sell, what else can I do?"
Chen Baomin, a ginger broker in Qingzhou, told reporters that last year Qingzhou's ginger planting area was 30,000 mu to 40,000 mu. Because the market was poor, the planting area has now decreased by 25%. "The purchase price is really too low. Many farmers are no longer planting ginger and have switched to grain crops and vegetables, which have had relatively good returns in recent years."

Will ginger prices enter a fast lane of price increases again next year?
Looking back over these years, China's potatoes, mung beans, garlic, scallions and other agricultural products have all been circling around in the cycle of "higher output, lower prices; lower output, higher prices."