Forecast of hog market supply at the end of this year and in the first quarter of 2013

Recently, the number of hogs slaughtered has decreased somewhat, pork prices have shown signs of halting their decline and stabilizing, and hog prices have risen slightly accordingly. Industry insiders believe that although the peak consumption season has now arrived, the rebound lacks momentum, so the outlook is not optimistic, and the overall trend of the hog market in the future will remain difficult to reverse from its weak state.
From the perspective of market supply: the sow inventory is still relatively high. It is expected that before February 2013, the total supply in the hog market will show a steady increase. Considering the market's regulatory role, the growth rate of hog slaughter will be relatively slow, and afterward hog supply will gradually stabilize. From the perspective of market demand: this year, affected by the adverse impact of the continued deterioration of the European and American financial crisis, together with the slowdown in domestic economic growth, after the Start of Winter, which should have been the peak season for pork consumption, hog prices instead fell continuously. At present, as deep winter arrives, the market should have shown a turnaround, but the upward price trend has still not met expectations. This shows insufficient consumption momentum and also indicates that the pork supply remains huge.
A comprehensive analysis shows that because hog sources are currently abundant and hog inventory and slaughter have reached a peak, supply will not be interrupted, and pork prices will find it very difficult to rise substantially; winter is the peak season for pork consumption, and coupled with rising feeding costs, farmers' profits have already shrunk, so the possibility of prices continuing to fall is also not great. Excluding the scenario of a large-scale epidemic outbreak, hog market supply at the end of this year and in the first quarter of 2013 will still be sufficient, and the overall national hog market is expected to maintain a stable operating trend.