Grouper prices fall below the cost line, and this year's farming outlook remains unfavorable
2012 was a very bleak year for grouper. The reasons: first, an increase in farming volume, with some in the industry estimating that 2012 farming volume nearly doubled; second, imports into mainland China from Taiwan, China and Southeast Asia, especially countries such as Malaysia where labor and feed costs are low, dealt a heavy blow to mainland grouper; third, the poor economic situation in 2012, combined with increasingly strict state controls on dining on public funds, caused a severe drop in consumption.
Grouper fry supply comes mainly from Hainan, with more hatcheries in Lingshui, Sanya and other areas along Hainan's western line, while farming areas are mainly distributed across Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi, with relatively few in Fujian. Because of its suitable water temperature, Hainan can stock green grouper and pearl gentian grouper year-round, while the mainland generally stocks after Qingming. Giant grouper eggs are hatched from Qingming through September, and giant grouper above 5 cm are traded year-round.
In terms of profit, the fry industry was still doing all right in 2012, but finished fish were in a loss-making state, with grouper prices falling 30-40% on average in 2012. Green grouper prices were 28-30 yuan/jin, with a cost price of 20 yuan/jin, and when the survival rate is factored in, farmers were operating at a loss. Pearl gentian grouper of more than 6 jin sold for 28-30 yuan/jin, while the 1-2 jin size sold for 40 yuan/jin (the 1-2 jin size is suitable for household consumption), barely maintaining profitability. The 50 yuan/jin selling price of tiger grouper was roughly equal to cost, also leaving only a slim profit or even a loss.
For pearl gentian grouper of the 1-2 jin size, the price was about 70 yuan/jin in late January 2012, and this year it fell to around 50 yuan/jin year on year. Green grouper fell from more than 46 yuan/jin in the same period last year to less than 30 yuan/jin, tiger grouper fell from more than 90 yuan/jin to 46 yuan/jin, giant grouper fell from 58 yuan/jin to 38 yuan/jin, and even the high-priced leopard coral grouper did not escape, falling from 140 yuan/jin in January last year to 105 yuan/jin this year.
Fry prices showed an upward trend at the end of 2012, with an increase of about 40%. For example, 3 cm green grouper cost 0.5-0.6 yuan/fish in August-September and rose to about 1 yuan/fish by the end of January 2013; 2.5-3 cm pearl gentian grouper cost 1.3-1.6 yuan/fish in August and rose to 3.5-3.6 yuan/fish by the end of January 2013. Compared with the sluggish fish prices, egg prices were relatively stable. Green grouper eggs were 3,000 yuan/kg, pearl gentian grouper eggs 20,000 yuan/kg, tiger grouper eggs 7,000-8,000 yuan/kg, and giant grouper eggs 70,000 yuan/kg. Egg prices generally rise after the weather turns cold, and early spring is the season when egg prices are high.
Grouper consumption is generally driven by Spring Festival consumption, so prices are higher in early spring, while from June to October prices are lower because of the impact of market-ready fish such as sea bass coming onto the market, with price fluctuations generally within 10 yuan. Yet in this year's sluggish market, no upward trend appeared as the Spring Festival approached.
Many people in the industry are pessimistic about the grouper price trend in 2013, believing it will at best remain at 2012 levels and may even fall further. First, state policy adjustments will continue; second, pond inventory is too large, with one farmer saying he alone had more than 300,000 jin of fish in stock, and the 2012 inventory is bound to affect sales in 2013. Industry players are advised to see the situation clearly, focus on stability, and above all avoid blind expansion. Some industry players remain confident, however, citing the cyclical fluctuations inherent in grouper itself: according to the patterns of previous years, when one year is bad, the following year improves.
At present, grouper farming modes are mainly of three types: indoor cement ponds, earthen ponds and cages. Indoor farming generally stocks fry above 5 cm, earthen ponds stock about 10 cm, and cages 15 cm. Earthen ponds have lower costs, while indoor systems have the highest. Because of high density, fewer diseases and the controllability of the farming environment, indoor farming is considered to have great room for development. Some in the industry recommend polyculture of fish and shrimp, which can improve feed utilization while reducing shrimp diseases.
As for varieties, industry insiders estimate that pearl gentian grouper farming will increase further, green grouper will decline accordingly, and giant grouper will continue to be favored. In 2012, mouse grouper appeared in the view of grouper industry players as a new variety; it is said that the high-priced mouse grouper is rather delicate and demands high farming management, while some manufacturers introduced su mouse grouper, priced at more than 100 to 200 yuan/jin, with fairly good results. (Text/Guo Jinfeng, China Aquatic Products Channel)