Pig-to-grain price ratio falls below break-even point, NDRC says some farmers are incurring losses

According to a message released on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission on the 13th, as of March 6, the national average ex-farm price of live pigs had fallen by a cumulative 16.17% since late January, and the pig-to-grain price ratio had dropped below the national average break-even point, with some farmers incurring obvious losses.
Since late January, affected by factors such as the cyclical fluctuations in hog production and reduced holiday and seasonal consumer demand, the supply-demand relationship in the live pig market has become increasingly loose, and prices have continued to decline.
As of March 6, the national average ex-farm price of live pigs was 14.52 yuan per kg (in some areas it had already fallen below 12 yuan), down 3.26% from the previous week (February 27) and down a cumulative 16.17% since late January; the pig-to-grain price ratio fell to 5.95:1, dropping below the national average break-even point of 6:1 and entering the blue warning zone set by the "Plan for Regulating Cyclical Fluctuations in Live Pig Market Prices," with some farmers incurring obvious losses.
Judging from the inventory situation, China's current hog production capacity is on the high side, and the situation of market supply exceeding demand may still persist for some time. It is suggested that pig farmers reasonably adjust their breeding structure according to changes in market prices and appropriately reduce restocking to avoid major losses.

At present, the relevant national departments are strictly following the provisions of the regulatory plan, closely monitoring changes in live pig production and market prices, and will, in light of market conditions, timely activate the regulatory plan to prevent excessive declines in live pig prices, avoid large-scale losses in pig farming, and strive to ease the cyclical fluctuations in live pig production and market prices.