Sheep prices plummet, small farmers reluctantly choose to switch careers

Winter is the peak season for mutton sales, and prices usually rise noticeably. However, this winter mutton prices have fallen to nearly the lowest point of the year, clearly below the same period last year. Recently, reporters learned from interviews that in previous years mutton prices were on the rise; in 2013 a jin of live sheep sold for 14 yuan/jin, while now each jin sells for only 8 yuan/jin. Prices have fallen sharply, and many small farmers have suffered heavy losses and have had to choose to switch careers.

This year, the slightest misstep in raising sheep means losing money

The drop in mutton prices has hit farmers hardest. Gao Bo, a farmer in Gaozhuang Village, Bozi Township, Hanting District, Weifang City, has a tale of woe; when talking about this year's mutton prices, he just shook his head. "For several years in a row, mutton prices kept rising, but for some reason, at the beginning of this year, mutton prices have stayed so low that there is simply no money to be made."

Reporters learned that Gao Bo's farm currently has three breeds: Dorper sheep, Boer goats, and Small-tailed Han sheep, among which the Small-tailed Han sheep are mainly supplied to the local market. "Last year my farm had more than 400 sheep, and now fewer than 200 are left." Gao Bo said that as mutton prices fell, the more sheep he raised, the more he lost, and fortunately in the first half of the year he promptly disposed of more than 200 sheep.

Gao Bo told reporters that because mutton prices rose in previous years, he increased his breeding volume. As for the current profits from raising sheep, he did the math for reporters. "In large-scale sheep farming, they generally feed the sheep, and one sheep can eat 90 yuan of feed per month on average. If a sheep is raised for 7 months before being sent to market, the cost reaches 630 yuan. This does not yet include other expenses such as treating the sheep and labor." Gao Bo said that the current market price for rams is 8 yuan per jin; if a sheep grows to 100 jin before being sent to market, the market price is between 600 yuan and 800 yuan, and the slightest misstep means losing money. With the end of the year approaching, Gao Bo believes live sheep prices will not rise sharply again, and now he just wants to sell the sheep at home as quickly as possible and does not dare keep them any longer.

It is understood that in the province many sheep farmers are newcomers, who had originally thought they could make more money by taking advantage of the good market, but this year mutton prices fell, and farmers generally cannot make money.

Some small farmers are switching careers one after another

Reporters learned from interviews that, affected by the mutton market price, larger farmers are still holding on, while some small farmers have already switched careers one after another.

Zhang Baorui, a farmer in Xiaotun Village, Zhangying Town, Yuncheng County, said that last year mutton prices were relatively good, so he began raising sheep, and at the most he raised more than 70. At that time the price of live sheep was 12 yuan per jin, and one sheep could earn about 400 yuan. "When live sheep prices were at their highest, they sold for fourteen or fifteen yuan per jin, and the profits were very high." Zhang Baorui said that the current price has fallen to the lowest point in recent years, there is no money to be made from raising sheep, so some free-range households locally have given up raising sheep.

Ding Weiming, a farmer in Qianyuan Village, Huanggai Township, Jiaxiang County, said that sheep have relatively low reproductive capacity and market-ready rates, and their growth period is also relatively long. Under normal circumstances, a ewe can produce three to four lambs a year. "It was precisely because mutton prices were relatively high in previous years that I started raising sheep, but the good times did not last long. This year mutton prices fell; at first I could still make some money, but by the second half of the year I began to lose money." Ding Weiming said that small farmers like him simply cannot withstand the ups and downs, and switching careers was also a forced choice.

Market supply exceeding demand is the main reason

This year's low mutton prices are basically a foregone conclusion. Analyzing the main reason, Qu Xuxian, deputy director of the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry Station, believes that in previous years mutton prices rose step by step, and farmers, seeing that profits were available, began large-scale meat sheep farming, causing the inventory to surge. The mutton market supply became abundant, yet market demand did not increase accordingly, so mutton prices naturally declined.

"Judging from the current situation, it is expected that later our province's mutton prices may rise slightly before the New Year, but this low-level operating trend may continue." Qu Xuxian said.

Now that the end of the year is approaching, many farmers still have not seen any upward trend in mutton prices, and some farmers can no longer hold on. Qu Xuxian suggested that some farms with the means and large farmers can learn from each other's advantages; in addition to saving farming costs as much as possible, they can also respond together to the "cold winter" by improving farming techniques, reducing mortality, and striving for ex-factory-price feed and other measures.