In 2016, nursery stock prices remain persistently sluggish, and growers need to find alternative paths

According to Linquanbang's 2015 nursery stock market operation data, nursery stock prices showed a continuous downward trend during the year, and the entire nursery stock market fell into a trough period.

A few years ago, because the state attached importance to greening, greening projects were built vigorously across the country, and nursery stock prices soared in a straight line. At the same time, because the awareness of rural land transfer has gradually strengthened in recent years, and land transfer has become easier than before, many large landowners began to contract more land to cultivate nursery stock.

After the two-to-three-year cultivation period, a large amount of stock in nurseries appeared. Since 2014 to 2015, on the one hand, the pressure of nursery stock inventory has become increasingly heavy, and coupled with the continuous rise in land contracting fees and the increase in labor costs, the burden on many growers has become heavier and heavier.

At the end of 2015, based on nursery stock market data and offline market operation analysis, Linquanbang pointed out: In 2016, the nursery stock market is still very likely to continue hovering in a trough, and predicted that its price market will show the following changes:

1. Conventionally cultivated nursery stock will continue to hover at a low price level. For example, easy-to-propagate small- and medium-sized nursery stock such as Sophora japonica (Chinese scholar tree), Platanus orientalis (oriental plane), Fraxinus chinensis (Chinese ash), Koelreuteria paniculata (goldenrain tree), and willows have a large amount of stock in nurseries, and during 2016, nursery stock prices will maintain the current low-price situation.

2. Evergreen landscaping nursery stock will not see a significant rebound in price. Because such nursery stock had relatively good prices in previous years, domestic planting volume was relatively large; however, prices have already fallen by more than half compared with previous years, and such nursery stock also has the characteristic of rapid propagation. Therefore, on the one hand it is still being continuously supplied, and on the other hand there is existing stock that is difficult to sell, so it will remain in a period of sluggish prices for a relatively long time.

3. Grafted nursery stock will not change much in the near term, and may continue to remain at low prices but will not decline much further. For nursery stock grafted using small rootstocks, such as Prunus cerasifera f. atropurpurea (purple-leaf plum), Prunus persica 'Duplex' (ornamental peach), and cherry blossoms, in recent years, because rootstocks are easy to propagate, grafting technology is mature, and grafting speed is fast, nursery stock in nurseries is also relatively large, and after two or three years they will again need to be planted out. Therefore, prices will not rise in the near term and may still remain at a low level.

4. Some tree species still have room for development. Multiple varieties, multiple specifications, multiple colors, multiple tastes, multiple uses, and multiple targets are the trend of development in the seedling industry, and functional tree species will receive attention in the future. For example, by making use of people's aesthetic curiosity, select and breed varieties with unusual trunks, branches, flowers, leaves, and forms; tree species with strong stress resistance such as drought tolerance, water saving, cold resistance, heat tolerance, and saline-alkali resistance, with protective effects, and able to green areas with poorer site conditions; tree species with strong resistance, slow growth, and low maintenance for special greening spaces; economic forest tree species that meet the needs of new rural construction and also have ecological benefits; tree species that absorb PM2.5 and toxic gases, formaldehyde, etc.; shaped trees; precious trees; and cultivation of native nursery stock, etc.

Overall, apart from factors such as nursery stock inventory, and in addition to the current smooth domestic supply and demand information channels under "Internet Plus" and rapid logistics and transportation, the overall trough-style market pattern will not change much during 2016. However, as a sunrise industry, landscape nursery stock still has strong drivers and potential for sustainable development in the long run.

With the needs of national land greening, urbanization construction, "Beautiful China" construction, and various special ecological construction efforts, the future development space of the landscape nursery stock market is still relatively large, and demand will gradually become stronger. Therefore, Linquanbang believes that in the near future, China's nursery stock industry will have more specific policy support, stronger government support, and more ample funding guarantees.

For growers who are looking for next year's direction in the nursery stock market, Linquanbang offers several suggestions here for reference:

1. In 2016, do not blindly follow trends in planting. Pay more attention to premium nursery stock, effectively adjust the nursery stock planting structure, and improve nursery stock quality.

2. The era of segmented markets in the nursery stock industry has arrived. Future opportunities lie in making specialized products in niche markets. Therefore, focusing on nursery stock innovation, taking an unconventional approach, and developing specialty planting while grasping planting details are key.

3. Think more about how to reduce operating costs and improve cash flow and liquidity. At the same time, change the business mindset of fighting alone and shift toward cooperation and resource integration.

4. Research and develop the O2O model, understand Internet thinking, learn to go e-commerce, and actively connect with the Internet and capital