Interpretation|May CPI month-on-month rise eases; experts say stable vegetable prices are the main reason

"Listen to San Nong, Understand China"Click the top "San Nong China" to subscribe!

The National Bureau of Statistics released the May national consumer price index on the 9th. Among these, CPI fell 0.5% from the previous month, but was still up 2.0% from the same period last year.

Experts said the main driving force behind the earlier rise in consumer prices came from pork and vegetables, but their year-on-year pull on CPI has gradually weakened. The slowdown in May CPI growth from the previous month was mainly because, as temperatures rose, large quantities of seasonal vegetables came onto the market, and fresh vegetable prices fell from earlier highs toward normal levels.

Expert interpretation

Image source: National Bureau of Statistics website

Shi Qingcai, analyst at Beijing Shuitun Wholesale Market:

The decline in May was obvious, mainly because after this year's Spring Festival, the frost damage in the south around the Spring Festival period was severe, which in turn led to vegetables from the north being shipped south. Originally it should have been vegetables from the south being shipped north, so this also caused northern vegetable prices during that period to be about 30% higher than the national level. But in the recent period, the continuous decline is on one hand a normal recovery pullback, and on the other hand, the weather in the north in May was still favorable for vegetable production, and the production pace accelerated noticeably. At the same time, because prices were relatively high earlier, farmers' enthusiasm for vegetable planting increased somewhat, and especially in May the market volume of northern leafy vegetables increased noticeably, with large supplies.

At the beginning of this year, cold wave weather affected vegetable production and transportation, and fresh vegetable prices ran at high levels. As the weather warmed, seasonal fresh vegetables came onto the market, market supply gradually increased, and fresh vegetable prices tended toward normal. Yao Jingyuan, a specially invited researcher at the Counselors' Office of the State Council, believes the impact of vegetable price increases on prices has already ended:

Yao Jingyuan:

In May, the decline in vegetables could reach more than 20%. From this angle, the overall climate conditions in June and July are still acceptable, which is favorable for vegetable production and planting, so the impact of vegetable prices on CPI can be excluded for the period ahead. By May, our CPI was still stable at 2%, and our full-year target is to keep it within 3%. It should be said that completing the target task is no problem.

Reporters and editors: Yang Ying, Chen Lei, Wang Feng