Corn prices in Northeast China have risen, soybean meal is up slightly, when will the low point appear?
[Daily Corn Price Report]
On June 23, corn prices rose in many places across the country. The Northeast market, which had long been calm, suddenly saw an upward trend. In the North China and Huang-Huai production areas, corn prices rose again after stagnating for two days, and prices at northern ports were raised in some areas. In the four provinces of Northeast China, policy grain circulation dominated, and supported by the shortage of high-quality corn, rotation corn rose to varying degrees. In Jilin, the ex-warehouse price of rotation corn was 1670-1780 yuan/tonne, and the price of some high-quality corn was 1800-1850 yuan/tonne; prices in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia were basically similar to those in Jilin; in Heilongjiang, the ex-warehouse price of corn was 1580-1700 yuan/tonne. Some areas of North China and Huang-Huai continued to rise. In parts of Shanxi, Hebei and Henan, corn prices were raised by 20-40 yuan/tonne, rising to 1880-1960 yuan/tonne. In some parts of Henan, the increase by deep-processing enterprises even reached 60 yuan/tonne. In Shandong, deep-processing enterprises suspended price increases in the past two days, with the highest price maintained at 2060 yuan/tonne, and the local mainstream price basically rose above 1900 yuan/tonne. Port supply became tighter, and prices rose to varying degrees. The flat-warehouse price of corn at northern ports basically rose above 1950 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne. High-quality corn from Liaoning and Jilin in the port traded at 2150-2180 yuan/tonne, mostly concluding at 2150. In major southern port areas, the mainstream price at Shekou Port in Guangdong was 2150-2180 yuan/tonne. Southern sales areas operated steadily. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the arrival price of North China corn was 1950-2020 yuan/tonne, and in Shanghai the ex-warehouse price of corn produced in 2014 was as high as 2100 yuan/tonne. In Sichuan, the arrival price of grain from the northwest was 2100-2220 yuan/tonne. In some parts of Hubei, the selling price of corn for pig feed was as high as 2130 yuan/tonne.
At present, the current-season grain supply at the grassroots level in North China, Huang-Huai and other places is basically exhausted. As the phenomenon of Northeast policy grain flowing back to North China increases, it is expected that corn prices there have basically peaked. In addition, with auctions proceeding in an orderly manner and enterprises submitting petitions to pressure the grain bureau, auctions of high-quality corn may proceed as scheduled, at which point corn prices may fluctuate within a specific range, and excessive chasing of gains is not advisable.
[Daily Soybean Meal Price Report]
On June 23, soybean meal prices rose slightly across the country, with increases of 10-40 yuan/tonne, while some areas were mainly stable. Among them, quotations from foreign-funded Yihai-affiliated oil mills and domestic-funded Jiusan-affiliated oil mills were all raised slightly by 20 yuan/tonne. In Shandong and Jiangsu, soybean meal quotations in major coastal port areas were 3380-3420 yuan/tonne, with increases of 20-40 yuan/tonne. Most oil mills in the two provinces had basically run out of ordinary-protein soybean meal, and quotations for high-protein soybean meal were 3500-3520 yuan/tonne. In Zhejiang and Shanghai, soybean meal prices were 3450 yuan/tonne, with increases in some areas reaching more than 50 yuan/tonne. In Guangdong and Guangxi, soybean meal prices rose by 10-20 yuan/tonne, with many places holding steady, and the mainstream price range was 3420-3460 yuan/tonne, while quotations from some foreign-funded oil mills were above 3500 yuan/tonne. Fujian was steady with a slight upward bias, with prices at 3430-3450 yuan/tonne. In Tianjin, Beijing and Hebei, oil mills concentrated their quotations at 3400-3430 yuan/tonne, with increases of 20-40 yuan/tonne. In Jilin and Liaoning, soybean meal prices rose by 20-30 yuan/tonne, with Jilin prices on the high side at 3580 yuan/tonne and Liaoning mainstream quotations at 3500-3540 yuan/tonne. In Henan and Hubei, soybean meal prices rose by 20 yuan/tonne, with a price range of 3490-3510 yuan/tonne. In Hunan and Shaanxi, soybean meal was raised by 20 yuan/tonne to 3520-3530 yuan/tonne. Anhui raised prices across the board by 20 yuan/tonne, with a price range of 3450-3460 yuan/tonne. Shanxi and Jiangxi were stable. In Sichuan and Kunming, oil mills and traders all raised prices by 10-20 yuan/tonne, with prices at the highest level nationwide, 3630-3650 yuan/tonne.
The domestic soybean meal spot market was once again driven by the rise in US soybean futures prices last night, showing an upward trend of 10-40 yuan/tonne, though the increase was noticeably weaker than in the earlier period. Regarding the US soybean planting intentions report at the end of the month, the market is divided, with some expecting a bearish outcome and others expecting a bullish one. From the perspective of trading, a wait-and-see approach is currently appropriate.
(Source: Zhinongtong APP Hangqingbao, author: Zhao Tian)
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