Hunan and Hubei fat pigs sold cheap, hog prices break below support and fall
Consumption is even lighter, so slaughterhouses keep lowering the prices for grade 4 and above fat pigs. After the summer solstice, the price spread between grade 3 and grade 4 pork at slaughterhouses has widened to...
Exclusive analysis by Newmu Network: In week 26 (June 19-25), national live hog prices fell steadily. Newmu Network monitoring data show the national weekly average price of foreign three-way crossbred pigs fell 2.45% from the previous week to 9.97 yuan/jin, while the national wholesale price of white strip pork edged down 0.15% week on week to 13.46 yuan/jin. On the 24th, the Newmu hog price index stood at 161.08, down 0.99% week on week.
East China hog prices were 9.9 yuan/jin, flat week on week; Southwest China hog prices were 10.1 yuan/jin, steady week on week; South China hog prices were 10.2 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan week on week; Henan hog prices were 9.5 yuan/jin, flat week on week; Hunan and Hubei hog prices were 9.7 yuan/jin, flat week on week. From the above data, national hog prices fell steadily, with the largest decline in the Shandong region, while the lowest price was 9.5 yuan/jin in the Henan region and the highest price was 10.2 yuan/jin in the South China region (see the table below for details).
Newmu Network regional survey on June 25 of the ex-farm prices of foreign three-way crossbred pigs in the Hunan and Hubei region: Liuyang hog prices 9.6-9.8 yuan/jin, Changde hog prices 9.4-9.8 yuan/jin; Wuhan hog prices 9.6-9.85 yuan/jin, Yichang hog prices 9.8-9.8 yuan/jin, Xiangyang hog prices 9.5-9.8 yuan/jin; Wens ex-farm prices in Hunan and Hubei were lowered to 9.7-9.85 yuan/jin.
For 30-jin foreign three-way crossbred piglets, Hunan reported 990 yuan/head, flat compared with week 25; Hubei reported 980 yuan/head, down 20 yuan/head week on week; for 100-jin replacement gilts, Hunan and Hubei held steady at 2100 yuan/head, continuing stable compared with the previous period; culled adult sows followed the decline in hog prices, with Hunan at 7.2 yuan/jin, down 0.3 yuan week on week; Hubei at 7.0 yuan/jin, down 0.2 yuan week on week. Newmu Network regional survey analysis: the piglet restocking boom in Hunan and Hubei is fading, and sales volume has clearly decreased. As hog prices fall back from highs, piglet prices will continue to slide (see the table on the next page for details).
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Newmu Network forecast for the next stage of hog price trends in Hunan and Hubei: break below support and fall, with the decline gradually narrowing
After the sharp drop in hog prices in week 25, another even fiercer wave of slaughterhouse price-cutting was brewing by the end of week 26. It truly was "one wave has not yet subsided, and another rises"!
Pork imports reached 163,500 tons, up 37.86% from the previous month and surging 202% year on year. From January to May, total imports were 560,000 tons, already exceeding the full-year import volume of 2014, and June pork imports are expected to hit a new record, possibly reaching 180,000 tons. At the same time, domestic wholesale pork prices edged down 0.12% week on week to 13.46 yuan/jin. On the one hand, feed ingredient prices are rising, breeding costs are increasing, and hog prices are falling; on the other hand, imported pork supply is increasing, the ex-farm volume of bull pigs is growing, and cheap sales of fat pigs are pushing meat prices down. Setting aside whether hog prices are high or low, with such a "fall, fall," is this going to plunge pig farmers into "deep water and scorching fire"?
Newmu Network brief analysis of the next stage of the Hunan and Hubei market: many places still have considerable fat hog inventories, and it will take time to fully clear them. As the weather gets hotter, cheap sales of fat pigs drag things down. It is forecast that in week 27 (June 26-July 2), overall hog prices will break below support and fall, with the decline gradually narrowing. Pig farmers are advised to continue doing a good job of heatstroke prevention and cooling management for medium and large pigs, and not to blindly hold back shipments or improperly keep raising "bull pigs"! (Fengzhong Qingyang)