Banana supply is tight, and prices have risen noticeably
According to a report by China National Radio's "Sannong China" program, recent reports say that the price and sales volume of domestically grown bananas in China have both fallen sharply. However, some analysts say that according to the patterns of previous years, from July to September, Hainan's banana shipments are basically finished, which is exactly the season when Guangdong and Guangxi bananas hit the market. But this year, after being hit by disasters, the time they hit the market has generally been delayed by as much as 2 months, and during this period China's banana market has seen a gap.
Logically speaking, a gap in banana supply means prices should rise. So, is the media report of a sharp drop in banana prices true? What is the current banana market situation really like? Faced with all kinds of conflicting market information, what should banana farmers do?
In Xixiangtang District, Nanning City, Guangxi, banana buyer Mr. Huang told reporters that Hainan bananas are now basically wrapping up, Guangxi bananas have not yet come onto the market in large volumes, and Lao bananas are also in the off-season for new production. Good-quality bananas from the three producing areas still command a high price of 2.7-3.0 yuan/jin. Overall, this year banana prices are high and volumes are low.
Mr. Huang: Bananas are around two yuan fifty or sixty. Prices are high; last year there was no such price. Last year it was about one yuan twenty or thirty. Production is low, and there was also the impact of typhoons. Quality has not really been affected; it is still just as good.
Liu Shuai, an analyst at Sublime China Information, said that since the start of this year, rising banana prices in producing areas have occurred not only in Guangxi and Hainan, but Guangdong is no exception. Affected by the El Nino phenomenon, the Philippines has suffered severe drought this year, and the banana industry has been hit hard. Philippine banana production is expected to fall by about 30%, with output decreasing by about 2.8 million tons. The decline in Philippine banana production has caused the price of bananas entering China to rise sharply over the past month or so.
Liu Shuai: The price of good-quality bananas in Hainan is around 2.90 yuan/jin, compared with 1.20 yuan/jin in the same period last year, up 141.67% year on year; the price of good-quality bananas in Guangxi is 2.80 yuan/jin, up 133.33% from 1.20 yuan/jin in the same period last year; the price of good-quality bananas at stalls in Qujie, Xuwen, Guangdong, is 1.60 yuan/jin, compared with 0.65 yuan/jin in the same period last year, up 146.15% year on year.
Prices in producing areas remain high, while prices in sales areas have also been rising all the way. A reporter saw at the Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market that the highest wholesale price for domestic bananas was 4.7 yuan/kg. A fruit vendor said that among the many fruits on sale, bananas have seen a relatively obvious price increase. Liu Shuai, an analyst at Sublime China Information, said that this year banana prices have risen noticeably compared with the same period last year.
Liu Shuai: At present, banana prices in sales-area markets are also at a relatively high level. In the Langfang market in Hebei, the price of middle-to-upper-grade raw bananas in 24-jin boxes is 63 yuan/box, and at **Jiuding Market, the price of good-quality raw bananas in 25.5-jin boxes is 75 to 80 yuan/box. Affected by high prices, market sales are only 30% to 40% of normal months.
Since entering August, banana prices in producing areas have continued to rise, with good-quality bananas rising to 3 yuan/jin. High-priced bananas entering the market are hard for customers to accept, and wholesale market sales are only 30% to 40% of normal months. Mr. Huang, a banana buyer in Xixiangtang District, Nanning City, Guangxi, told reporters that so far, the new banana production volume is not as good as last year, and output has fallen sharply.
Mr. Huang: Another month or two, about like that. After another month or two there will be more, that is the peak period. The taste is fine. The volume is very small. The goods coming out now are all very much in demand.
According to analyst Liu Shuai, the main reason for this rise in bananas is the impact of weather, which has led to a shortage of supply in producing areas. At the same time, bananas in Guangxi and Guangdong are being delayed in coming onto the market, leaving current supply in a state of shortage between old and new crops.
Liu Shuai: In late July and early August, the continued rise in banana prices in producing areas was mainly caused by a shortage of banana supply in producing areas. Affected by last year's cold wave and frost, the time bananas come onto the market in Guangxi and Guangdong has been postponed, and now only a few unaffected banana orchards are producing new fruit sporadically. Hainan has entered the late stage of new banana production, orchards in producing areas are wrapping up, and supply is tight. Laos, Myanmar, Yunnan and other places are in the off-season for new banana production, with only small volumes supplied. Banana supply in producing areas is in a period of shortage between old and new crops, and supply falling short of demand has kept prices rising.
Right now, market traders are finding business difficult, and some even plan to suspend operations, with purchasing enthusiasm declining, and banana shipments from producing areas slowing. Regarding reports that China's banana prices and sales volume have fallen sharply, Liu Shuai refuted the rumor, saying that prices for good goods in producing areas did indeed adjust downward slightly by 0.1 to 0.2 yuan/jin, but the overall banana market has not seen the sharp drop of 0.5 yuan/jin claimed in the rumors.
Liu Shuai: After mid-September, the volume of bananas coming onto the market from Guangxi and Laos will gradually increase, and prices in producing areas may trend lower. However, because this year the per-plant yield of bananas in Guangxi is down 20% to 30% from last year, Sublime China Information expects this year's banana prices will not be lower than the same period last year.
Faced with the current high banana prices, Liu Shuai advises banana farmers to try to get their bananas onto the market before October 1 by controlling fertilization and watering. During the shortage period between old and new crops, banana farmers' returns will be higher, while bananas that come onto the market after October should focus on cultivating premium quality.
Liu Shuai: Farmers whose bananas come onto the market after October should pay attention to orchard management and improve banana quality. This year there are relatively few good-quality bananas in producing areas, and premium bananas will sell for a higher price. (CNR)