August agricultural product supply and demand situation analysis report released, data interpretation of supply and demand trends

Corn

In 2015/16, China's corn output was 225 million tons, an increase of 8.93 million tons year-on-year; corn imports will reach 3.8 million tons, 800,000 tons less than last month's estimate; corn consumption will recover to 193 million tons, 100,000 tons more than last month's estimate, mainly because the operating rate of corn alcohol enterprises increased somewhat, and the increase in industrial consumption offset the portion of feed consumption reduced by the impact of floods on the breeding industry in the south; the annual corn balance change was 35.1 million tons, 900,000 tons less than last month's estimate. It is estimated that in 2015/16 the wholesale price of corn in China's producing areas will fluctuate in the range of 1800—1880 yuan per ton, with the midpoint about 420 yuan lower than the previous year.

Soybeans

In 2015/16, China's soybean imports were 82.49 million tons. Because the growth rate of domestic protein demand slowed in the third quarter, imports were 1.27 million tons less than last month's estimate; in 2015/16, soybean crush consumption was 81.98 million tons. Because live hog prices fell from historic highs, breeding profits declined, and demand for soybean meal returned to normal, soybean crush volume was reduced by 710,000 tons from last month; the annual balance was -1.14 million tons, and inventory levels declined. Increased domestic soybean output led to lower import demand.

Cotton

Affected by factors such as the narrowing price gap at home and abroad and adjustments to the tariff quota policy, in 2015/16 China's cotton imports were 940,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last month's estimate; in 2015/16 China's cotton consumption is estimated at 7.5 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons from last month's estimate; in 2015/16 China's cotton inventory was 11.41 million tons, a reduction of 250,000 tons from last month's estimate. Affected by the reduction in current supply, in 2016/17 the price of China's 3128B grade cotton will fluctuate in the range of 14,000 to 16,000 yuan per ton.

Edible oil

This month's estimate: in 2015/16 China's edible vegetable oil output was 25.28 million tons, a reduction of 310,000 tons from last month's estimate. This month's estimate: in 2015/16 China's edible vegetable oil imports were 5.62 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from last month's estimate, mainly because soybean imports decreased and import demand as a substitute for soybean oil increased.

This month's forecast: in 2016/17 China's edible vegetable oil output will be 25.28 million tons, a reduction of 100,000 tons from last month's forecast.

Sugar

Sugar production for this crushing season has ended, and in 2015/16 China's sugar output was 8.7 million tons. In 2015/16 China's sugar consumption was 15.2 million tons, a reduction of 100,000 tons from last month's estimate; in 2015/16 the average international sugar price range was 15-18 cents per pound, with the upper limit lowered by 1 cent from last month's estimate; in 2015/16 the average domestic sugar price range was 5400-5600 yuan per ton, with the upper limit lowered by 100 yuan from last month's estimate, mainly based on estimates of sugar prices in August and September.