Pig prices are starting to rise. How can pig farmers sell their pigs for maximum profit?

Live pig prices keep rising and falling, and people are already very frustrated. They would rather just stop watching, but the pigs in the pens have grown big, and these past few days many people have been asking about 240-260 jin pigs. They want to hold them back, but they are also afraid the pigs will get too big and too much weight will be deducted; they want to sell, but they are afraid that once they sell, the price will rise.

And because this is a very unusual period, and many analysts are even more afraid of taking responsibility, they have started hemming and hawing, recommending both bullish and bearish judgments about the future. This leaves those who have pigs even more confused. Should they sell or not?

Looking at views from all sides

Changshu pig farm survey:

Recently, the cost investigation team of the Changshu Municipal Development and Reform Commission conducted a dynamic survey of pig production costs at a large-scale pig breeding farm in Shenshi Village, Meili Town, Changshu City:

According to the survey and calculations, the farm's average selling price this month was 900 yuan per 50 kg, unchanged from the same period last year, and down 1.1% from last month; due to the decline in concentrate feed prices and the reduction in the amount of concentrate feed, production costs fell slightly from last month but rose slightly from the same period last year. Breeding returns increased slightly from last month, with an average net profit of 410.59 yuan per head, down 5.44% from the same period last year and up slightly by 1.33% from last month.

The average weight of pigs sold by the farm this month was 95.3 kg per head, down slightly by 0.94% from the same period last year and down slightly by 0.52% from last month. Pig sales this month decreased compared with last month, with 153 pigs sold, down 47.42% from the same period last year and down 2.55% from last month.

The farm's total production cost per head this month was 1322.81 yuan, up slightly by 0.56% from the same period last year and down slightly by 2.47% from last month. Among this, the concentrate feed cost per head was 653.25 yuan, down 7.22% from the same period last year and down slightly by 0.71% from last month; during this survey period, the average wholesale price of concentrate feed for this surveyed household (mainly corn, wheat bran, soybean meal, etc.) was 2.57 yuan/kg, down 1.53% from the same period last year and down 4.46% from last month. Among these: corn was 2.2 yuan/kg, bran was 1.53 yuan/kg, and soybean meal was 3.3 yuan/kg.

This month, the output value per head of pigs was 1733.4 yuan, down 0.93% from the same period last year and down 1.6% from last month.

This month, the average price of corn purchased by this farmer was 2.2 yuan/kg, the average selling price of pigs was 18 yuan/kg, and the pig-to-grain price ratio was 8.18 to 1, higher than our province's break-even point of 6 to 1, indicating that pig breeding profits in August were still relatively high.

According to feedback from farmers, pig prices may rise slightly in the coming months and will continue to operate at a high level.

Shandong monitoring information:

The latest monitoring by the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Information Center shows that in week 34, Shandong pig and pork prices fluctuated at a high level and weakened, with profit of about 500 yuan per fattening pig.

According to fixed-point monitoring of prices in 26 rural markets across the province by the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Information Center, in week 34, the pig price in Shandong was 18.05 yuan/kg, up 1.35% from the same period last year and down 0.61% from last month; the pork price was 30.35 yuan/kg, up 5.05% from the same period last year and up 0.53% from last month; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 9.77:1, up 26.79% from the same period last year and down 2.24% from last month.

Animal husbandry experts analyzed that after the Start of Autumn, temperatures dropped relatively quickly, and affected by "putting on autumn fat," pork consumption gradually improved, and the market recovery was obvious. In addition, with schools starting in September and the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, slaughtering enterprises stepped up stockpiling, so there was relatively strong resistance to pig prices continuing to fall, and pig prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term.

View of a small-scale farmer with eighteen years of pig farming:

At the current price of more than 9 yuan for fat pigs, if the pigs are not too big, you can hold them back. Now is a good stage for large pigs to grow. Selling later at 8.5 yuan makes more money than selling now at more than 9 yuan. The 8.5 yuan price may last until the end of the year. At this price, I personally think it will only go up, not down. If it does fall to this price, pig farming in the next few years will be even better than this year. The reasons are as follows:

First, among those who raised pigs this year, no more than 20 percent sold at a price of 10 yuan. Selling at more than 8 yuan or 9 yuan, those who bought high-priced piglets did not make much profit and took big risks, so they will not raise pigs afterward.

Second, those raising pigs are elderly people raising them at home. They all want to earn some money from pig farming for their own use and to reduce the burden on the next generation. If they cannot make much money and it is hard work, their children will not let the elderly raise pigs at home.

Third, for those who breed and raise their own pigs, they now keep as many sows as they can raise themselves. They sell very few piglets to others.

Fourth, for those specializing in fattening pigs, they go to large pig farms to buy pigs. The price of piglets at large pig farms will not be low. Nine out of ten who buy pigs lose money, but many still raise them. Many lose money, and after losing money they stop raising pigs.

(Xinhua News Agency)