Pig prices may see a decline around Mid-Autumn Festival

After experiencing deep adjustments in June and July, as well as sideways consolidation in August, pig prices have shown a trend of stabilizing and rebounding. However, industry insiders believe that this round of pig price increases lacks sustainability and is mainly a small rise while maintaining high-level operation. As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, pig prices may see a pullback. Industry insiders expect supply and demand to loosen after September, and a new round of adjustment may begin after next year's Spring Festival.

As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, downstream demand has slightly recovered, and slaughterhouses in the north have successively begun to increase volume. On the 11th, slaughterhouses in Shandong all increased volume, by about 40%. Linyi Jinluo raised its slaughter volume from 15,000 earlier to 20,000 head, and local small plants also basically reached around 4,000 head. However, this increase in volume did not bring a positive stimulus to pig prices; instead, the market showed a downward trend. In Shandong, the low price for improved-breed pigs at slaughter could reach 17.6-17.8 yuan/kg, while prices at large-scale farms mostly dropped by 0.1 yuan/kg to 18.4-18.6 yuan/kg.

Zhuochuang Information analyst Niu Zhe pointed out that the slaughterhouses' volume-increase cycle this time is relatively short and may be completed around the 13th, while hog slaughter volume in most regions is showing an increasing trend. It is expected that pig prices will find it difficult to rise before the festival, and many markets in the north may be mainly declining.

(China Securities Journal)