Trends and Main Tasks in the Development of Modern Agriculture in China

Agriculture is the foundation for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and achieving national modernization. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the requirement for agriculture to develop in step with industrialization, informatization, and urbanization has become more urgent, and the contradiction between ensuring an effective supply of grain and other important agricultural products and the carrying capacity of resources and the environment has become more prominent. It is necessary to base our efforts on national and agricultural conditions, conform to the demands of the times, accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development model, speed up the pace of agricultural technological innovation, and take a path of agricultural modernization featuring high output efficiency, safe products, resource conservation, and environmental friendliness.

Outlook on the Development Trends of Modern Agriculture in China

■ The production capacity of important agricultural products will steadily increase. ■ The structural imbalance in agriculture will be somewhat improved.

■ The level of green agricultural development will steadily rise. ■ The degree of integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural areas will increase significantly.

■ Agriculture's opening-up to the outside world will be further expanded.

Since the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the state has continuously deepened reform of agricultural systems and mechanisms, strengthened policies to support, benefit, and enrich farmers, and increased fiscal support for agriculture. Through the joint efforts of governments at all levels and hundreds of millions of farmers, outstanding achievements have been made in modern agriculture construction. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's modern agriculture will show the following development trends:

First, the production capacity of important agricultural products will steadily increase. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, as policies to support, benefit, and enrich farmers continue to intensify, reform in key areas and crucial links such as the rural land system, the property rights system, and the agricultural operating system will advance in depth, and the material foundation and policy conditions supporting the development of modern agriculture will become more solid. Agriculture is expected to continue its stable development momentum under the combined effect of the impetus of pro-farmer policies, the driving force of technological progress, and the vitality of rural reform, and the production capacity of important agricultural products will gradually increase. At the same time, however, the constraints on agricultural resource factors will become tighter and tighter, and the difficulty of achieving rapid growth in agricultural output on a high base will increase. Land fallowing, soil remediation, and other measures will cause some production capacity to exit, the planted area of agricultural products will be somewhat reduced, and output growth will also decline. Among the factors driving the improvement of agricultural product production capacity, the substitution of technology and capital for labor and the substitution of socialized services for family labor will become increasingly prominent, high and new technologies such as the Internet of Things, molecular breeding, and advanced equipment manufacturing will be applied more extensively in agriculture, and the level of agricultural standardization and informatization will gradually rise. At the same time, the new agricultural socialized service system will become more complete, the outsourcing of agricultural production links and land trusteeship will become important trends, and the degree of agricultural organization will continuously increase.

Second, the structural imbalance in agriculture will be somewhat improved. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, it will be difficult to fundamentally reverse the structural imbalance in agriculture in the short term, but with the gradual establishment of the "big food security concept" and the return of the price ratio relationship among agricultural products to a more reasonable level, the pace of structural adjustment within the planting industry will accelerate somewhat; with the active advancement of agricultural industry chain and value chain construction, as well as the widespread application of new technologies and new models, the level of coordinated development of grain, cash crops, and feed crops will continuously improve, the degree of integration of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries will continuously strengthen, the level of integration of planting, breeding, and processing will continuously rise, the agricultural industrial system will become more complete, and the problem of imbalance in variety structure will be somewhat improved. At the same time, with the delineation of permanent basic farmland and the acceleration of the construction of grain production functional zones and important agricultural product protection zones, the phenomenon of urbanization and industrialization encroaching on agricultural production space in some areas will be curbed and reduced, and the regional structure of agricultural production will also be somewhat improved.

Third, the level of green agricultural development will steadily rise. On the one hand, as income levels continue to rise, the consumption demands of urban and rural residents will continuously upgrade, and people will not only want to eat their fill but also eat well. Attention to and requirements for the quality and safety of agricultural products will continuously increase, and demand for safe, high-quality agricultural products will grow. Changes in market demand will force adjustments in agricultural production and promote low-carbon and circular agricultural development. On the other hand, with the gradual improvement of the mechanism for sustainable agricultural development and the in-depth implementation of the action to achieve zero growth in the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers, the continuous promotion and application of soil testing and formulated fertilization and green prevention and control technologies, the extensive agricultural development model of heavy water and fertilizer use will be transformed, and the level of cleaner agricultural production will be raised. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the standards and technical specification systems for the production, operation, and use of agricultural inputs, and the continuous strengthening of state supervision over the quality and safety of agricultural products, risk prevention and control for the quality and safety of agricultural products will be further strengthened, which will help promote the greening of agricultural production methods.

Fourth, the degree of integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural areas will increase significantly. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, as institutional reform advances in depth, a unified urban-rural market system will continuously take shape, the decisive role of the market in allocating resources will be further brought into play, and obstacles to the free flow of urban and rural factors will be gradually removed. Modern production factors represented by technology and capital, as well as new business models and formats, will penetrate rural areas in an all-round and large-scale manner, which is bound to bring about profound changes in agricultural production methods and organization methods. At the same time, the increase in urban population and the upgrading of consumption structure will provide broader space for expanding consumer demand for agricultural products and expanding agricultural functions, and will also create conditions for agriculture to achieve large-scale production and intensive operation. Driven by policies supporting industrial integration and demonstrative platforms, changes in the supply structure brought about by the reallocation of production factors and changes in demand brought about by consumption upgrading will jointly promote the construction of agricultural industry chains and value chains, drive the extension of agricultural industry chains and the continuous expansion of agricultural functions, and the integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural areas will truly enter a period of great development.

Fifth, agriculture's opening-up to the outside world will be further expanded. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, with the in-depth implementation of major national strategies such as the "Belt and Road" initiative, the pace of agriculture's opening-up will be further accelerated, "bringing in" and "going out" will develop simultaneously, and the depth and breadth of agriculture's opening-up will be further enhanced. A higher level of "bringing in" will help make better use of international markets and resources, make better use of foreign advanced production technologies, machinery and equipment, and high-end talent and other modern factors, ease the tension between supply and demand for domestically scarce agricultural products, and reduce pressure on domestic resources and the environment; a larger-scale "going out" will help expand the space for agricultural development, enhance China's position in the global agricultural value chain division of labor, and strengthen China's ability to use international resources to regulate domestic agricultural product prices. At the same time, however, the trend of price inversion between major domestic and international agricultural products will not change in the short term, speculative trading and transmission effects in the international agricultural product market will also deepen, trade frictions in agricultural product exports will increase, and competitive pressure in agricultural outbound investment will further intensify.

Main Tasks for Accelerating the Development of Modern Agriculture

■ Stabilize and protect comprehensive grain production capacity. ■ Optimize the structure and layout of the agricultural industry.

■ Raise the level of agricultural science and technology and material equipment. ■ Promote the integrated development of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural areas.

■ Build a new agricultural socialized service system. ■ Vigorously develop eco-friendly agriculture.

■ Improve the agricultural product quality supervision system. ■ Accelerate the pace of agriculture going global.

To accomplish the overall goals of agricultural development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the main tasks for accelerating the development of modern agriculture include the following aspects:

First, stabilize and protect comprehensive grain production capacity. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, with trend-based population growth, the advancement of urbanization, and the improvement of people's living standards, the gap between grain production and demand will remain relatively large. It is necessary to always adhere to the national food security strategy of taking our own efforts as the mainstay, basing ourselves on domestic production, ensuring production capacity, making moderate imports, and relying on scientific and technological support, basically stabilize the grain sown area, explore the establishment of grain production functional zones, optimize the structure of grain varieties and quality, focus on raising grain yields per unit area, improve the level of grain quality and safety, ensure basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple food rations, and strengthen the building of production capacity in major grain-producing areas and reserve production areas.

Second, optimize the structure and layout of the agricultural industry. Accelerate reform of the price formation mechanism for agricultural products, straighten out the price ratio relationships among agricultural products, and rely on the price lever to guide adjustments in the structure and layout of agricultural production. Strengthen the construction of production protection zones for important agricultural products and advantageous industrial belts, consolidate the production of industrial raw material crops such as cotton, oil crops, and sugar crops, enhance the stable supply capacity of vegetables, promote large-scale and standardized production of livestock products and horticultural products, and advance healthy aquaculture. Guide the agricultural product processing industry to concentrate in advantageous areas for planting and breeding, urban suburbs, and county areas, and promote industrial agglomeration and optimization and upgrading.

Third, focus on raising the level of agricultural science and technology and material equipment. Vigorously promote independent innovation in agricultural science and technology, accelerate the breeding of new crop varieties, build a modern crop seed industry system, and advance the promotion and integrated application of new agricultural varieties and technologies. Vigorously promote standardized production and strengthen the construction of high-standard farmland, large-scale livestock and poultry farms (communities), and standardized ponds. Accelerate agricultural mechanization and support the research, development, promotion, and application of intelligent agricultural machinery and equipment. Improve the agricultural informatization service system, build agricultural intelligent production demonstration bases and parks, and vigorously develop networked, intelligent, and precision modern agriculture models. Establish and improve a long-term mechanism for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and enhance the ability to respond to natural disasters and major emergencies.

Fourth, actively promote the integrated development of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural areas. Encourage the coexistence and development of multiple models of rural industrial integration, promote integrated development of the planting-breeding combination type, chain extension type, agricultural function expansion type, technology penetration type, and composite type, and promote clustered development of agricultural product processing and leisure agriculture. Support the development and growth of new types of business entities, improve farmers' ability to participate in rural industrial integration, and guide different types of business entities to divide labor, cooperate, and complement each other's advantages. Actively cultivate new business formats, vigorously develop rural e-commerce, explore the establishment of e-commerce industrial parks, vigorously develop smart agriculture and leisure agriculture, raise the development level of facility agriculture, and encourage the development of new business formats such as community-supported agriculture and agricultural crowdfunding. Build a public service system for the integrated development of rural industries, establish close interest linkage mechanisms and risk prevention mechanisms for rural industrial integration. Create pilot demonstration zones for the integrated development of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural areas and give play to their radiating and leading role. Strengthen rural infrastructure construction, focus on breaking through the bottleneck of rural transportation facilities, consolidate the agricultural foundation for integrated industrial development, and build supporting infrastructure for the secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas.

Fifth, accelerate the building of a new agricultural socialized service system. Improve agricultural public service institutions, strengthen capacity building for monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control of major crop pests and diseases, and improve the animal epidemic prevention system. Actively cultivate new types of agricultural business entities, and encourage farmers' professional cooperatives, new professional farmers, specialized service companies, farmers' brokers, leading enterprises, and various types of industrial and commercial capital to provide various forms of agricultural production and operation services. Strengthen the development of agricultural information resources and establish a unified information chain for planting, breeding, and circulation. Develop modern circulation methods for agricultural products and improve the agricultural product circulation system.

Sixth, vigorously develop eco-friendly agriculture. Improve the strictest farmland protection system, the system for intensive and economical land use, the water resources management system, and the environmental protection system, and focus on improving the execution of these systems. In accordance with the principle of not reducing production capacity, improve the system of balancing cultivated land occupation and replenishment. Carry out in-depth restoration and recuperation of agricultural resources, focus on promoting soil remediation and treatment in areas polluted by heavy metals, continue to implement the conversion of cropland to forest and grassland, and basically establish an ecological compensation mechanism. Comprehensively deepen the treatment of agricultural non-point source pollution and make every effort to promote resource-saving agriculture in terms of water, land, pesticides, fertilizers, energy, and seeds. Improve agricultural machinery design in accordance with the requirements of sustainable crop production, and develop intelligent, simple, precise, efficient, and practical agricultural machinery with little impact on soil and landscapes. Promote the research, development, and application of low-carbon agricultural technologies, strengthen the conservation of agricultural biological resources, and strengthen grassland ecological protection in areas where grazing is prohibited and grassland is restored. Accelerate the development of ecological agriculture, optimize the spatial pattern of urban and rural green spaces, and improve agricultural ecological functions.

Seventh, improve the agricultural product quality supervision system. Adhere to source control and addressing both symptoms and root causes, purify the environment of agricultural product production areas, establish a monitoring network for the environment of agricultural product production areas, implement a supervision system for the use of agricultural inputs, accelerate standardized and clean agricultural production, implement restoration and recuperation by region and in stages, delineate prohibited areas for the production of edible agricultural products according to the severity of pollution of cultivated land and water resources, and carry out concentrated remediation actions. Strengthen routine monitoring and quality surveys, expand the scope of monitoring for pesticide and veterinary drug residues, drug residues in aquatic products, feed and feed additives, and promptly eliminate hidden risks. Build a nationwide network for research, development, and promotion of testing technologies. Establish a risk assessment system and operating mechanism for the quality and safety of agricultural products, strengthen the construction of a national platform for the analysis and processing of agricultural product quality and safety monitoring data, and dynamically grasp hidden risks. Improve emergency response plans for agricultural product quality and safety incidents and establish a rapid response mechanism.

Eighth, accelerate the pace of agriculture going global. Accelerate the formulation of a strategic plan for agriculture going global, clarify key regions, and strive to achieve breakthroughs first in some areas. Encourage the use of methods such as resource development, market expansion, outbound investment, and technical cooperation, with a focus on entering key areas such as warehousing and logistics, marketing networks, and grain production bases, to improve the effectiveness of agriculture going global. Improve the policy support system for overseas agricultural investment, establish and improve relevant laws and regulations, and create a standardized and orderly institutional environment. Promote qualified regions to accelerate agriculture going global, encourage and equally support state-owned and private enterprises to go global more and faster, and cultivate world-class grain traders and agricultural companies.