The potential risk of a food crisis must be highly vigilantly guarded against

　　There are hidden dangers to food security

After reading the article below and combining it with field investigations in recent years in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan, Guangdong, Hainan, Heilongjiang, Tibet, Beijing, Tianjin and other places, I am extremely worried, even deeply anxious, about our country's current food security problem. We must attach great importance to the food crisis; if it is not handled well, this crisis may trigger war and even political turmoil.

I believe the hidden dangers to our country's food security may objectively exist, mainly for the following reasons:

　　First, farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain has greatly decreased

In the past it was said that "when Huguang is ripe, the whole world has enough," but now farmers in the Hunan, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas are unwilling to farm, and even in Hainan and other triple-cropping rice areas, farmers plant only one season. Farmers in southern grain-producing areas farm only to ensure their own food security. The Northeast has "negative population growth," and on the black soil, the farmers willing to engage in agriculture are also showing a downward trend because the purchase prices of corn and other grains are not protected. If labor is counted, growing grain is a loss, so farmers are unwilling to grow grain and just grow enough for themselves to eat. Because the comparative benefit of farming is low, whoever farms loses out, and the major grain-producing counties that contributed 70% of the nation's grain are poverty-stricken counties; if this continues for a long time, it is very dangerous.

　　Second, on the 1.8 billion mu of farmland, not all that is "planted" is grain; there are also houses, factories and towns

Even when they farm, many are willing to grow high-value vegetables, tobacco and so on, but these crops cannot be eaten as grain. Long-term off-season vegetable cultivation in the Shandong area has caused serious pollution of farmland and groundwater. In the past it was "take grain as the key link and develop in an all-round way," but now whatever makes money is planted; under the rush-to-follow mode of planting, agricultural products are seriously unsalable, and the costs invested in chemical fertilizers, pesticides and seeds cannot be recovered. This causes serious waste of resources.

　　Third, in reality there may not be that much grain in the state-owned grain depots

Although the state attaches importance to the importance of grain procurement, some grain depots pad their quotas and fraudulently obtain state funds, so in reality there may not be that much grain in the state-owned grain depots. The problems exposed earlier in our country's grain depots are enough to show that there are also problems in grain procurement and storage. On this point, the analysis below is more thorough.

　　Fourth, although the state attaches importance to research on the key scientific issues of grain production, this money has been used in the wrong direction

GM scientists received 20 to 30 billion in funding, and the research and development funding for many crops easily reaches hundreds of millions, but the paths researched have almost little effect on increasing grain yields. Many so-called basic studies in fact have little relation to increasing grain production. When the state wants you to increase grain yields, doing genetic modification on Arabidopsis is "going south by driving the chariot north." GM breeding only makes an issue of seeds, but in reality the main factors affecting grain yields lie in people and in maintaining the productivity of farmland. In the past Chairman Mao criticized agricultural universities for being located in cities as "seeing a ghost," and today's agricultural universities are not only "seeing a ghost," but are creating "grain" in laboratories - those SCI articles that cannot be eaten at all. China's agriculture copying the United States will carry great risk; the Philippines is a warning from the past. Agriculture in Argentina and Brazil was almost ruined by GM companies.

　　Fifth, for a long time there has been a serious backlog in farmland basic infrastructure, and agriculture is living off its old capital from 30 years ago

Some people study GM technology to let crops find water for themselves, not realizing that such crops can only preserve their lives; most plants in arid areas do not have large biomass, and some ephemeral plants even have a growth cycle of only a short one or two weeks, the reason being water limitation. Meeting crops' water needs obviously requires water conservancy facilities and water conservancy projects. Unfortunately, most of the reservoirs left from the people's commune era have long been in disrepair, or have been contracted to individuals for fish farming, tourism or industrial power-generation cooling water, and are far from farmland irrigation; farmers are forced to dig wells on the spot, and the benefits of water conservancy have greatly declined.

　　Sixth, economists blindly have faith in buying grain on the international market and do not attach importance to domestic grain production

There are two things Chinese people do not have the final say on: grain prices and whether others will sell to you. Banknotes cannot be eaten; if people starve to death, all the banknotes go to others. The grain-exporting countries understand this principle very clearly. Grain is a weapon of war more powerful than nuclear weapons! Unfortunately, our mainstream economists are blindly optimistic; they overemphasize the role of banknotes.

　　Seventh, natural disasters

Various floods, droughts, salinization and wind-sand disasters have reached a period of concentrated outbreak, and some traditional grain-producing areas are also facing disaster risks. With these natural disasters, compounded by domestic and foreign capital's suppression of farmers, the potential of grain production shows a clear downward trend.

　　Eighth, farmland is divided into small plots, which is not conducive to large-scale operation, and agricultural mechanization has regressed

Grain production calls for farmer mutual aid and cooperation in a new form. As everyone knows, the fundamental way out for agriculture lies in mechanization; however, the farmland divided by contracting is fragmented, the role of large machinery cannot be brought into play, and farmers have no choice but to use small equipment. Walking tractors have surprisingly become the main force of agricultural machinery, a regression of nearly half a century in a row.

　　Ninth, women and the elderly farm the land while men go to the cities, forming a modern version of farmers "living apart in two places"

Industry and cities continuously exploit agriculture. To survive, farmers plunder the land, using it without nurturing it. Women do not have the strength to farm, so they do things in whatever way saves the most trouble; spraying pesticides at close range has seriously harmed the health of rural women. The situation of elderly agriculture is worrying; today's farmers are mostly those born in the 1950s or 1960s, and even some born in the 1940s. "Those born in the 1970s are unwilling to farm, those born in the 1980s do not know how to farm, and those born in the 1990s do not consider farming." Young people and middle-aged people are both unwilling to farm; in the future, will 1.3 billion Chinese rely on the world to feed them?

　　Tenth, the urban-rural gap continues to widen

Grain production is increasingly not valued by farmers, and those practices carried out under the slogan of increasing grain yields are in fact unrelated to increasing grain production. Grain is grown by farmers, but their meager profits are completely carved up by fertilizer dealers, pesticide dealers, seed dealers, grain traders, agricultural officials, agricultural "scientists" and so on.

To solve the above problems, the author's suggestion is: the state should gradually restore the public grain system, convert various agricultural subsidies (chemical fertilizers, pesticides, farm machinery, agricultural film, seeds, etc.) and those irrelevant agricultural research funds directly to farmers, and exchange public grain at high prices. In terms of cultivation models, develop ecological agriculture based on cooperativization, so that "those who farm benefit," and make ecological agriculture an enviable new industry. Once the state has grain, it can then sell it to citizens at a fair price. Let the people envy farmers, and let farmers benefit from handing in public grain, rather than the present situation in which agricultural taxes have been exempted but farmers have become even poorer.