Vegetable prices affected by continuous rainfall; experts remind that expanding vegetable planting requires caution

The continuous rainfall in the south can be said to tug at the heartstrings of people across the country. Under the impact of heavy rain, the vegetable baskets of ordinary households have also been affected. Take Wuhan for example: the prices of most vegetables in Wuhan have risen significantly, generally by more than 10 percent, with the highest increase at 40 percent. Vegetable vendors say the main reason for the price increase is that the vegetable production and transportation wholesale links have been disrupted to some extent, and the heavy rain has blocked the pace of transportation.

Vegetable prices have risen. Does this mean a business opportunity for growing vegetables has arrived? Wang Zhu, special commentator for China National Radio's "Voice of the Countryside," analyzes: economic factors are interconnected; to predict the market, one must grasp the key points and think thrice before acting.

Wang Zhu: Why do floods affect vegetable prices? After a flood breaks out, it takes time to reopen the drainage ditches in damaged plots, repair and improve irrigation and drainage facilities, and carry out plowing and clearing. In addition, in the early period after a flood there are more pests and diseases, leading to lower yields and higher prices. This is the most direct reason.

However, according to current estimates, although the heavy rain has affected vegetable prices, the CPI in June was not high, and the CPI in July may not soar either. Why is this so? First, China adopts a stable monetary policy. Second, the decline in beef and mutton prices and the stability of vegetable oil and grain prices have offset the pressure brought by rising vegetable prices.

Heavy rain and floods affected vegetable prices, vegetable prices affected the CPI, and the stability of other agricultural products in turn stabilized prices. The logic here is that all economic factors are interconnected and do not exist independently. To study and judge an economic event, multiple factors need to be considered.

Hubei is an important major province for vegetable production and also an important major province for laying hen breeding. In this round of heavy rain, Hubei's vegetables and laying hens suffered heavy losses. Some nearby breeders and growers believe that they need to expand their scale in a timely manner to fill the market gap and obtain high returns. Such an idea may not come true as hoped. Because the market, as a whole, has a strong capacity for self-regulation when a local area suffers losses; increasing planting and breeding in nearby areas will not necessarily expand returns.

Agriculture has the characteristics of a long cycle and high risk. Many people feel that market conditions are always hard to fathom and even have serious lag. In fact, these market conditions can be basically studied and judged, and such judgment must be based on the interconnectedness of a certain field and considered from an overall perspective. Only when the most critical factors change will large fluctuations occur; otherwise, it is just wishful thinking. As the saying goes, a riot of flowers gradually dazzles the eyes; do not let a single factor affect your judgment. Grasp the key to clear the fog, and there will be a tomorrow for planting and breeding.