In which direction will the corn variety landscape adjust?
Sales in the Huang-Huai-Hai summer corn region have ended, marking that the overall national situation for the 2015-2016 corn sales year is settled! According to relevant data, the corn planting area in the four northeastern provinces decreased by 30 million mu in 2016, and Henan Province in the Huang-Huai-Hai region may have decreased by 4 million mu. The adjustment plans for the planting areas of major crops in the "Agricultural Development Plan" are gradually beginning to have a significant impact on corn.
"Difficult, Pressured, Chaotic, Replacing": Typical features of the 2015-2016 corn seed industry market
"Difficult": Total corn seed supply exceeds demand; corn prices and planting area both decline (especially in the Sickle Bend region); varieties surge, with over a thousand corn varieties competing (2014 statistics already showed 936 varieties on the list); a large number of varieties are highly homogenized; there are many companies and a large number of dealers - these five factors combined mean that from companies to dealers, and even to retailers, competition is white-hot, and overall the market is becoming increasingly difficult! Under this broad market structure, parts of the semi-arid Northeast, most of northern Shanxi, a small part of the Northwest, and a small part of the Southwest have once again returned to the seed "low-price zone."
"Pressured": Affected by the broader market environment, from retailers and dealers to companies, there are varying degrees of seed inventory backlog, and large return volumes have become the "new normal"!
"Chaotic": The situation still exists in which small and medium-sized enterprises produce chaotically, dealers sell chaotically, and farmers plant chaotically.
"Replacing": The replacement of corn varieties has become the only opportunity for the development of companies and dealers. This round of corn variety replacement involves all major corn planting regions nationwide, but because of its obvious regional characteristics it has not attracted attention; yet its grandeur can only be compared with the era of Zhengdan 958, and even the Xianyu 335 era did not trigger variety changes across such a large area. The Jingke 968 phenomenon, Tiannong 9 phenomenon, Xianyu 696 phenomenon, genetically modified corn phenomenon, Liaoning's "Dongdan 6531" phenomenon, North China's "Dafeng 30" phenomenon, Shanxi's "Chengxin 16" phenomenon, the Huang-Huai-Hai "red cob variety" phenomenon, Guangxi's "Guidan 1810 phenomenon," Yunnan's "Wugu 1790" phenomenon, the "Wugu" phenomenon in eastern Gansu, Ningxia's Xianyu 508 phenomenon, **'s Jiuhe Seed Industry Xinyu 29 phenomenon, **'s northern Xinjiang KWS phenomenon, the "Syngenta" phenomenon in the southern Xinjiang multiple-cropping region, and so on, are changing the structure of the corn seed industry. Some traditional large companies are still developing, some large companies have declined, some formerly large companies have returned, a group of emerging companies is rising rapidly, and a group of companies faces a life-or-death struggle!
Which varieties may rise?
1. The extremely early-maturing region of the Northeast was greatly affected by the reduction in corn area, but Ruifuer No. 1 from Heilongjiang Ruifuer Agriculture still achieved growth.
2. In the early-maturing to mid-maturing corn region of the Northeast and North China, varieties have fallen into melee, and companies such as Heilongjiang Pengcheng Agriculture, Heilongjiang Xinxin Seed Industry, Beijing Huanong Weiye, and Sanbei Syngenta still shine brightly. How Dabeinong Group's strong entry into Heilongjiang Longke Seed Industry will affect the seed industry structure in this region is attracting industry attention!
3. In the semi-arid region of the mid-late maturing area of the Northeast, Jingke 968 completed the replacement of Zhengdan 958. This region includes Shuangliao, Changling, and western Songyuan to Da'an in Jilin, most of Tongliao in Inner Mongolia, and Aohan in Chifeng. Since then, the history of Zhengdan 958 as a major variety in the Northeast has officially ended. Among the six development companies for Jingke 968 - Beijing Denong, Beijing Tunyu, China Seed Group, Shandong Denghai, Henan Xiandai, and Beijing Shunxin Agriculture - Beijing Denong and China Seed Group were precisely members of the four development companies for Zhengdan 958!
4. In the semi-humid region of the mid-maturing area of the Northeast, the first variety replacement began in 2012 due to severe lodging and the re-emergence of northern leaf blight, with Xianyu 335 declining comprehensively. The main varieties involved in the replacement included Liangyu 99, Liangyu 66, Tiannong 9, Nonghua 101, and others; in 2015, another variety replacement was triggered by factors such as low spring temperatures, late sowing, insufficient accumulated temperature, and severe local drought.
5. Liaoning's late-maturing region experienced its first variety replacement in 2010 due to "corn empty stalk," and its second variety replacement in 2012 due to a major armyworm outbreak. In this cycle, Dongdan 6531 promoted by Dongya Seed Industry rose strongly. 2016 will be an overall test for Dongdan 6531, which already covers several million mu. The strong return of Dongya, which held 50% of the Liaoning market before 2010, and the breeding achievements of breeder Wang Zhongyu will get their answer in 2016!
6. In North China, the difference between Dafeng 30 from Shanxi Dafeng Seed Industry and Chengxin 16 from Shanxi Chengxin Seed Industry is that one is a big star and the other is a small star! In Shanxi Province, Xianyu 696 became the absolute number one main planted variety. In fact, from Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia's Hinggan League, and Chifeng, Xianyu 696 has already become an important variety. A variety approved nationally in the same period as Xianyu 335 ten years ago being so successful now is a phenomenon enough to make industry people think deeply!
7. The second-largest corn main planting region nationwide - the Huang-Huai-Hai summer corn region - saw its largest varietal structure change in this cycle since Zhengdan 958 replaced Nongda 108 in 2003. Because the corn varieties planted in Huang-Huai-Hai are highly single in bloodline, this triggered a nationwide severe outbreak of bacterial wilt in 2014, and in 2015 an even more specific disease - southern rust - swept across Huang-Huai-Hai, finally causing major changes in corn varieties in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.
Varieties involved in this change include Denghai Seed Industry's Denghai 605, Denghai Pioneer's Xianyu 335, Lianchuang Seed Industry's Yufeng 303 and Lianchuang 808, Beijing Huanong Weiye's Huanong 138, Henan Huafeng Seed Industry's Huayu 168, Golden Nonghua Seed Industry's Nonghua 816, Henan Qiule Seed Industry's Yuyu 30 and Qiule 218, and others, as well as Nongda 372 and provincially approved varieties Zhongdi 88, Qiaoyu 8, Songyu 619, and so on. These varieties reached astonishing market shares in Handan in Hebei, Dezhou in Shandong, Nanyang in Henan, and Fuyang in Anhui, and triggered a major variety upheaval across most of the Huang-Huai-Hai region except the following areas: north of Xingtai in Hebei (excluding Hengshui), part of Jiaodong in Shandong, part of northern Jiangsu, and part of northern Henan! Because the cobs of the varieties listed above are all red, this variety change was called the "red cob storm" by dealers, but in fact the old variety Liyu 16 promoted by Origen and Liyu 88 from Hebei Zhaoyu Seed Industry also achieved countertrend growth due to excellent resistance to southern rust; the two varieties listed above are white-cobbed. These varieties in Huang-Huai-Hai will undergo an overall test in 2016!
8. In Guangxi in the Southwest region, Guidan 0810 promoted by Guangxi Zhaohe Seed Industry has broken through the encirclement of the Dekalb series, Zhengda series, and Xianda 901 and Xianda 903, and grown into the number one variety; while in Yunnan, Wugu 1790 from Gansu Wugu Seed Industry became one of the top two varieties, and its single-seed sowing, increased density, good quality, and high value should have had a major impact on the traditional Southwest region. Emerging companies in the Southwest region also include Guangxi Hengmao, Chongqing Banghao Seed Industry, Hubei Kangnong Seed Industry, and others.
"Highly productive" breeders continue to set new records
In the corn breeding world, Mr. Li Denghai, Mr. Song Xieliang, Mr. Zhao Jiuran, Mr. Wang Yibo, Mr. Wei Wei, Mr. Li Guobin, Mr. Du Xianzhang, Mr. Zhao Jinlin, Mr. Guo Guoliang, and many other breeders are famous for having bred many varieties.
From the perspective of nationally approved varieties: Mr. Wang Yibo of Lianchuang Seed Industry bred and nationally approved Lianchuang 808 and Yufeng 303, and another variety, Zhongke Yu 505, is in the approval process. Mr. Xiao Bixiang of Beijing Huanong Weiye bred and nationally approved three varieties: Huanong 138 in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and Huanong 887 and Huanong 886 in the East-North China region. Mr. Wang Zhongyu bred and nationally approved Nonghua 816 in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and Jinhua 150 and Nonghua 206 in the East-North China region, and another variety, Dongdan 6531, was listed by the Ministry of Agriculture as a leading variety in Liaoning Province. And the above records may be rewritten in 2016.
Four varieties bred by Mr. Li Shixiao, a graduate of China Agricultural University and of Gansu Wugu Seed Industry, will complete national trials and enter the approval process, involving major production regions such as East-North China and Huang-Huai-Hai. If his two already nationally approved varieties and more than ten provincially approved varieties are included, another record-setting breeder is about to be born!