Grain prices are falling and land transfer is hitting a cold spell. How exactly should the land be farmed?

1. Who is farming the land?

Most still farm on a scattered, household basis; left-behind elderly people and housewives are the main workforce, while young people are unwilling to farm and do not know how

The fall in corn prices did not make Zhang Wenming give up growing grain. "One wheat crop, one autumn crop. If corn does not work out, wheat can carry it. Besides, at my age, what else can I do if I do not farm?"

Helpless, this 65-year-old farmer worries: "At current market conditions, once I can no longer work, who will farm the land?"

"To see China's wheat, look at Henan; to see Henan's wheat, look at Xinxiang; to see Xinxiang's wheat, look at Yanjin." Yanjin is known nationwide for its high-quality wheat. The county has 1.03 million mu of cultivated land, with 950,000 mu planted to wheat, of which 500,000 mu is high-quality wheat, and its seed sales reach more than half of China. Who is farming the land here?

Pingling Village in Sizhai Township, where Zhang Wenming lives, has 550 households and 4,900 mu of land. "You can hardly see anyone under 55 in the fields," village party secretary Xiao Hongsheng said frankly. Those born in the 1970s are unwilling to farm, those born in the 1980s do not know how to farm, and those born in the 1990s do not even mention farming. The village's land has not been transferred on a large scale, and most of it is farmed by the elderly and women at home.

Dark-skinned, with prominent veins on his hands, Zhang Wenming had just finished watering the wheat fields. The family has 5 members. His son and daughter-in-law work away from home and earn more than 6,000 yuan, his wife looks after the grandchildren, and all 10 mu of land is managed by Old Zhang alone. "I do not expect to get rich by farming; it just earns a bit of cash." His situation is fairly common in the village.

Villager Li Cheng, 74, only stopped working in the fields after surgery the year before last. His 12 mu of contracted land was handed over to his son Li Wenxian to tend. "It is not that my son wants to farm; it is that his health is poor, he cannot go out to work, and he has no particular skill, so he can only farm at home," Li Cheng said.

Why are Pingling Village villagers unwilling to transfer their land? Xiao Hongsheng said the village's fields are all seed fields, used to propagate high-quality wheat seed from the Provincial Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and 1 jin can fetch two mao more than ordinary wheat. If the land rent is low, farmers will not agree; if the land rent is high, at current grain prices, it cannot be rented out. In addition, farmers have an emotional attachment to the land. With land at home, they do not need to spend money on a year's grain ration or vegetables.

Unlike Pingling Village, 80% of the land in Dongshigu Village, Sengu Township, has been transferred and rented to the leading enterprise Xinxiang Xinliang Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. "Of 1,700 mu, on a 15-year contract, the village has only more than 400 mu of non-contiguous land left," said village party secretary Li Minfu.

Why are Dongshigu villagers willing to transfer their land? Li Minfu said, first, the village is close to the county seat, making it convenient to work away from home, and the village has set up 3 construction teams employing more than 300 people. Second, the land rent is high, 1,200 yuan per mu per year, about the same as what farmers earn by farming it themselves.

"Looking at the whole county, villages like Dongshigu are, after all, few." Jia Yong of the Agricultural Economics Section of the Yanjin County Agriculture and Forestry Bureau said that currently the county's land transfer area is 384,900 mu, accounting for 38.5%, but the operating area of leading enterprises and cooperatives is only just over 67,000 mu. The survey shows that in many villages more than 70% of male laborers work away from home, and more than 20% work odd jobs while farming. Those engaged in agricultural production are mainly people over 60 and housewives.

The situation the reporter found in Zhangqiu, Shandong, was similar to Yanjin. The whole city has 1.04 million mu of cultivated land, with a transfer area of 320,000 mu, and more than 2/3 is still farmed on a scattered household basis.

Liu Yong, deputy director of the Zhangqiu City Agriculture Bureau, said that despite so many people working away from home, ordinary people are reluctant to let land lie waste. In recent years land rent has risen quickly, and almost all land that can be transferred has been transferred. What cannot be transferred is still farmed, if more extensively. "Take this wheat field in front of us. If it could be watered once or twice more, an increase of one or two hundred jin would be no problem." But now working away from home brings more than 80 yuan a day, so it is not worthwhile for farmers to take several days off and come home to water the fields.

"Farming it yourself is more worthwhile than renting it out." Liu Kaisheng, 53, a villager from Wanxin Village, Zaoyuan Subdistrict, has 6 mu of land at home. Last year he rotated wheat and potatoes, earning more than 3,000 yuan per mu. After deducting costs, net income was still 1,500 yuan, while the transfer rent was only 1,000 yuan.

Asked about his plans for the future, Liu Kaisheng said: "Never mind that my son is unwilling to farm; even if he were willing, he could not farm it." Once he asked his son to go water the field, but after struggling for a long time he still could not get it done, and in the end Liu Kaisheng had to rush to the field after finishing his errands before water came out.

2. Who can farm the land well?

Left-behind elderly people struggle to support modern agriculture; new types of operating entities have obvious advantages, and new varieties and new technologies spread quickly

Can left-behind elderly people and women support modern agriculture?

The reporter learned that, judging by grain yield per unit area, ordinary farmers are not lower than large-scale operating entities.

Take Pingling Village as an example: wheat averages 1,100 jin per mu and corn 1,300 jin; while at the leading enterprise base in Dongshigu Village, wheat averages 900 jin per mu and corn 1,100 jin.

"One household working intensively and carefully is very hard for large households and enterprises to match," Xiao Hongsheng said. Although everything from planting to harvesting is now mechanized, quite a lot of work, such as watering fields and spraying pesticides, still requires manual labor. For example, if mechanical sowing leaves gaps, whether missing seedlings can be filled in sufficiently, and whether watering reaches where it should. When farmers grow their own land, they certainly put more care into it than when working for others.

However, modern agriculture cannot be judged only by yield; quality and future potential matter even more. Behind ordinary farmers' consecutive years of high yields, some problems have become prominent.

"The land is getting more and more demanding the more it is farmed; soil fertility is declining, and it is hard to reduce fertilizer use." Guo Peirong, head of the Yanjin County Agricultural Technology Extension Station, said that scientific fertilization is now being promoted. For 1 mu of wheat, 25 jin of chemical fertilizer is enough, but ordinary farmers worry that with less fertilizer the yield will not rise, so they often apply 50 jin.

"Farming is much easier now, but the technical requirements are higher, and it is probably hard for the old methods to keep up." Guo Peirong believes that Yanjin wheat has undergone 4 major variety upgrades in more than ten years. When to plant each variety, when to spray pesticides and how to strengthen seedlings all have their own particular requirements. For example, pesticide works better when applied to the base of the wheat, but many farmers use sprayers and sprinkle it on the leaves.

Xiao Hongsheng feels this deeply. In 2005, when the village was promoting high-quality wheat, he brought in 50,000 jin of seed and went door to door to deliver it, but many farming households simply did not want to plant it. Seeing that the season would soon be missed, he got anxious, led village cadres to pull up others' crops, and forced the seed into the ground. Breeding requires high purity and a uniform variety, with 6 drills and one person watching each, for fear that other seeds would get mixed in. Only the next year, when everyone saw the harvest, did the discontent fade. "If it were now, I would not dare do that," he said.

By comparison, large-scale operating entities have obvious advantages.

Yan Xizhan, director of the transfer office of Xinliang Grain and Oil Company, said that with 1,700 mu under unified operation, new varieties and new technologies can be put in place quickly. Now pesticide spraying uses aircraft to "work," taking only a few minutes and just 15 yuan per mu, 10 yuan cheaper than hiring people; fertilizer is purchased centrally, saving 10 yuan per bag; and with order purchasing, the price per jin can be one mao to one mao five higher, giving them more market bargaining power than ordinary farmers.

"If you want to make money, you must have scale." In the view of Sha Shuxing, village party secretary of Wanxin Village in Zhangqiu City, "It is hard to earn 500 yuan per mu, but earning 100 yuan should always be possible. Once scale goes up, returns can be magnified a lot." He has his own "sheep herding theory": four or five sheep still take a day to herd, and herding four or five hundred sheep at once is also a day.

"Do not harvest when it is not cold; do not plant when it is not hot." Growing scallions is physical work and also skilled work. For this reason, Wanxin Village set up the Selenium Scallion Cooperative, rotating wheat and scallions, transferring more than 200 mu of land, with 30 member households. "Only those who plant more than 3 mu, strictly follow standardized cultivation, and do not indiscriminately apply chemical fertilizer or pesticides can become members," Sha Shuxing said. The scallions grown by the cooperative have more stable quality and fetch a better price.

In Yanjin County, there are 1,710 cooperatives, with 23,000 member households and 19 city-level leading enterprises; in Zhangqiu City, there are more than 1,000 farmers' professional cooperatives and more than 300 family farms.

With agriculture lacking successors, farming indeed needs a different approach. Rapidly growing skilled grain growers, family farms, professional cooperatives and other new entities are being pinned with high hopes.

3. The new dilemma of new entities

As grain prices fall, large households lose money growing grain, and land transfer slows. They hope structural adjustment policies will be introduced soon

The survey found that the fall in corn prices has plunged many new entities into a new dilemma.

"Selling for a few mao less per jin puts the risk concentrated on large households, and the pressure is unbearable," said Guo Weifeng, a large grain grower in Shazhuang Village, Sengu Township, Yanjin County.

In earlier years, policies encouraged large households to grow grain. Guo Weifeng and three farmers jointly rented 300 mu of land, planting wheat for one season and corn for another. By 2014 the transferred area had grown to 600 mu, with 800 mu under trusteeship. To adapt to large-scale operation, they bought tractors, harvesters and other farm machinery worth several hundred thousand yuan. "Grain prices were good for two years, but last year they fell sharply and we lost more than 90,000 yuan. We had planned to transfer another 900 mu, and the land had already been discussed, but we do not dare rent it now," he said.

Operating pressure has increased, and signs of land lease termination have appeared. Zhao Guohuan, chairman of Yanjin Century Fortune Cooperative, said the cooperative has transferred 1,800 mu of land on a 10-year contract. Although the contract has not yet expired, it is expected that by the second half of the year half the land will be returned.

The pace of transfer has clearly slowed. Liu Xianghui, head of Sengu Township, said that in earlier years people often came to rent land, opening with "however much can be transferred, transfer it all." From the second half of last year to now, no one has come looking for land.

Growing grain does not make money, and bank loans have tightened further, making life even harder for new entities. A cooperative head said: "For the past 5 years we borrowed from one bank. One sum of money had to pay double interest: after borrowing, we first deposited it back, then borrowed it out again. But having money was better than not having it. Unexpectedly, last year the bank heard that growing grain was losing money, and this year it would not lend."

"Now when banks hear it is for farming, there is basically no chance of a loan," Guo Weifeng said frankly. What large households dread most is paying land rent, when they suddenly have to come up with more than 700,000 yuan. Payment comes before land use; there is no way around it, so they can only borrow at high interest, 1 fen per month, and even higher is unbearable for us.

Pingling Village set up a wheat growing cooperative back in 2005. Without policy support, if funding could not keep up, its 6 seeders and seed treaters would long ago have been idle. "If the cooperative's services could keep up, with the village's fields managed uniformly and seed supplied uniformly, farming costs would certainly fall a bit," Xiao Hongsheng said.

It is understood that many farmers' professional cooperatives operate with difficulty, and some are even cooperatives in name only.

Amid operating difficulties, many people are reflecting: "Transfer costs have risen too high!"

"Rent of 1,200 yuan per mu at this price means growing grain simply cannot make money." Chen Changhai, a large grain grower in Sengu Township, did the accounts for the reporter: growing wheat and corn for two seasons costs 875 yuan per mu in total production. Wheat yields 1,000 jin at 1.1 yuan per jin, and corn 1,100 jin at 0.75 yuan per jin. After deducting land rent, each mu loses 150 yuan.

It is understood that for small-scale transfers between farming households in Yanjin County, rent is 600-800 yuan per mu, but for transfers between farming households and leading enterprises, cooperatives and large grain growers, rent reaches 800-1,200 yuan per mu.

In Zhangqiu City, land rent was less than 500 yuan per mu in 2007, and now averages 1,100 yuan. Recently there have been higher cases, reaching 1,468 yuan directly. Zhang Zhishui, chief of the Legal Affairs Section of the Zhangqiu City Agriculture Bureau, said: "Large-scale operation can improve efficiency, but we must be alert to land rent rising too fast."

Right now, structural adjustment has become the biggest confusion for new entities.

"The wheat harvest will soon come. After planting wheat, what should be planted? We are not in the corn reduction subsidy area. What policies are there? When will they be introduced?" Chen Changhai has no idea. He said: "With this year's market conditions, continuing to plant corn will certainly be wasted effort. This year I plan to adjust several dozen mu to grow peanuts. If it does not work out, the land will have to be returned."

"Now we are very passive. If we do not plant corn, there really is no suitable crop. It is hard for large households to change course, and without policy, who dares take the risk?" Guo Weifeng is waiting for policies to be introduced quickly. He said farm machinery cannot be replaced just like that. They bought quite a lot of machinery specially for corn. If they do not plant corn, the loss on the machinery alone will not be small.

"The urgent task is to help new entities and farmers get through this difficult period as soon as possible, so that those who know how to farm and can farm do not lose out. Only then will agriculture have hope in the future," said Luo Peng, deputy county head of Yanjin County in charge of agriculture.

4. Transfer, or not transfer?

Developing trusteeship and contracted planting to drive ordinary farmers can also achieve large-scale operation. The government and the market must both exert force to make up for shortcomings in socialized services

With land transfer hitting a cold spell, is it better to transfer in the future, or not to transfer?

Luo Peng believes that land transfer should follow its natural course and be moderate, compatible with the non-agricultural transfer and employment of the rural labor force. Exactly how large a scale counts as "moderate"? The county has done a survey, and 500-1,000 mu for leading enterprises and cooperatives is the most ideal operating scale.

"Achieving moderate-scale operation is not only about land transfer," Luo Peng said. From the current view, relying on the socialized service system and adopting methods such as land trusteeship and contracted planting can also drive the broad mass of ordinary farmers. It can give play to the "intensive and careful farming" of individual households and also achieve large-scale, specialized production. This is a future development direction.

In the process of market-oriented reform of grain prices, to solve the problem of "who will farm the land," it is fundamentally necessary to advance structural reform of the agricultural supply side, give play to both the government and the market, support the development and growth of cooperatives, large grain growers and other new types of operating entities, and make up for the weak link in agricultural socialized services.

In the survey, large households' opinions were most concentrated on the direct grain subsidy policy. "Whether or not you grow grain, you can get the subsidy. It seems to have become a kind of 'welfare,' while those actually growing grain get no subsidy." They believe that "whoever grows grain benefits" was the original intent of state subsidies, and suggest setting up special subsidy funds for large grain growers, with subsidies issued according to the area planted to grain.

Some cooperatives report that subsidies are not issued in time and are a bit late: "This year's farm machinery purchase subsidy has not yet come down, and the spring machinery purchase period has already passed. The subsidy amount is also insufficient. Last year the whole county had only 280 quotas for corn harvesters, and many people could not get approval."

At the institutional level, they hope to implement financial policies supporting agriculture, arrange a certain amount of agricultural credit funds, and ease the seasonal and temporary capital needs of new entities.

With policy support, new entities also need to find ways to respond to the market. Century Fortune Cooperative has extended the industrial chain, processing grain into stone-milled wheat flour and stone-milled corn grits to increase added value and defuse market risks; Funong Cooperative in Weiqiu Township, Yanjin, has tried switching to sweet potatoes, processing them into handmade vermicelli that sells for 15 yuan per jin, adding 300 yuan in income per mu.

How can large-scale grain growing make money? In 2014, all 1,200 mu of land in Songjiabu Village, Longshan Subdistrict Office, Zhangqiu City, was transferred as a whole to Lianqing Family Farm. Last year corn prices fell, but this had almost no impact on Song Shilian, who planted more than 700 mu of corn. "We sold all of it to a livestock farm as silage corn. Each mu produced 3.5 tons, and one ton sold for 475 yuan. Overall, one mu could earn 1,200 yuan." According to his research, the straw recovery market is currently large, and last year he also purchased 600 tons of straw, earning more than 50 yuan per ton.

Changing the organizational form of large-scale operation, Century Fortune Cooperative took 700 mu of land under trusteeship, with unified seed supply, unified management and unified harvesting. "The biggest advantage is that the land still belongs to the farmers themselves, and the cooperative charges a service fee, so there is no longer such great rent pressure to bear," Zhao Guohuan said.

Only by making agriculture an industry with prospects and making farming a respectable occupation can the difficult question of "who will farm the land" find its answer.