Why are banana prices so low? Experts analyze and predict that short-term supply and demand will be difficult to improve

Original title:Banana market sluggish; expert: short-term supply and demand conditions are difficult to improve

Beijing, December 20 (CNR News, reporter Yang Ying) According to a report by China National Radio's "Agriculture, Rural Areas and Farmers in China," after two good years for bananas, this year's banana market conditions are not optimistic and remain persistently sluggish. At present, bananas from Guangxi and Hainan are being marketed in large quantities, but when reporters visited farmers' markets and large supermarkets in multiple places, they found that within the past month, banana prices have continued to fall, and have now dropped to 3 yuan/kg. With prices this low, what should growers do?

Recently, at the Beijing Xinfadi Wholesale Market, the reporter saw bananas priced at 3 yuan/kg. Several fruit stall vendors all told the reporter that within the past month, banana prices had already fallen by 25%. Fruit vendor Boss Chen:

Boss Chen: In early November, the banana price was stable at 4 yuan/kg. After that, bananas came onto the market in large quantities, and the price continued to fall. At present, it has dropped to 3 yuan/kg.

At present, Guangxi and Hainan are in the period when bananas are being marketed in large quantities. Banana farmers are busy cutting and shipping bananas on the one hand, and on the other are deeply worried about such low banana prices. Wu Dan, a banana grower in Yulin, Guangxi, told the reporter that the current banana purchase price is 0.4-0.5 yuan/jin, and earlier it was even cheaper, only 0.3-0.4 yuan/jin. This year, after deducting costs, they are operating at a loss.

Wu Dan: I planted more than 100 mu of bananas, and the yield is still decent. One tree has 50-60 jin of bananas. I have sold 70% to 80% of the ripe bananas on hand, and this year's new bananas have not yet started to be sold. They may come onto the market again in more than ten days. We used to all grow citrus here, but because of huanglongbing, all the citrus was ruined. In the past two years, we have switched to growing bananas, and a banana base of several tens of thousands of mu has already formed. Many farmers grow more than 100 mu, and the smallest holdings are still several tens of mu.

According to monitoring by Sublime China Information, the current banana price at bases in Guangxi is around 0.6 yuan/jin, while the cost per jin of bananas is around 0.8 yuan. For every jin of bananas sold, banana farmers lose 0.2 yuan. Liu Shuai, a market analyst at Sublime China Information, analyzed that the reason banana prices have fallen sharply this year is an increase in production, while market demand is not strong, and imported bananas also have relatively strong competitiveness in the market.

Liu Shuai: Guangxi's banana planting area has expanded noticeably, with the planted area increasing by about 20% this year. Weather conditions were relatively good, and output increased by about 30%. A large volume of bananas is coming onto the market, while follow-through demand in the end market cannot keep up, and the market has become saturated. Another reason is that the import volume of bananas from the Philippines is not small, and there are also many bananas from South America. All of these have caused banana prices to fall again and again.

At present, banana marketing periods overlap, and supply exceeds demand. This is the direct reason for the continued decline in banana prices. Liu Shuai predicts that in the short term, with the arrival of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, fruit prices will also rise slightly as market demand increases, and banana prices will rise to a certain extent, but this will only amount to sustaining weak fluctuations.

Liu Shuai: Banana prices in Guangxi production areas have entered the late stage of the new production season, and supply of goods is gradually decreasing, but market banana cold-storage inventories are sufficient, and merchants' willingness to purchase in large quantities is not strong. In the short term, banana prices in Guangxi production areas will remain in a state of weak fluctuations, and it will be difficult for price increases or decreases to exceed 0.20 yuan/jin.

At present, as growers face the dilemma of losses, many choose to hold onto their goods and wait for a good price before selling. Because short-term supply and demand conditions are difficult to improve, Liu Shuai advises banana farmers to treat the market rationally, ship goods promptly, and minimize losses. In addition, they must absolutely avoid blindly following the trend and expanding planting.

Liu Shuai: For growers who have already finished harvesting, it is advised not to blindly expand planting or follow the trend in planting. Do not pursue only yield; quality should be placed in the foremost position. This year, the price difference between good and poor goods in banana production areas is very large. At this stage, the price of premium bananas is 1.00 yuan/jin, while the price of bananas from small growers is only 0.60 yuan/jin. The returns on good bananas will be even more considerable.