Pig price forecast: Northern pig prices continue to rise slightly, how will things play out later

The peak demand season is approaching, northern pig prices keep rising slightly, and southern demand is starting to improve. On December 1, domestic live pig prices showed a slight upward trend, with the Northeast seeing an obvious increase. The Northeast rose overall, with slaughterhouses' settlement prices mostly up 0.2-0.4 yuan/kg. The Shandong pig market is advancing moderately. On December 1, 2016, the mainstream national live pig purchase price was 16.70-17.28 yuan/kg, with a reference price of 16.99 yuan/kg, up 0.05 from yesterday, a rise of 0.30%; on December 1, 2016, the Yangzhu Baba pig price index was 128.98, up 0.29 from yesterday, a rise of 0.23%, as shown in the figure below.

On December 1, among 28 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions), pig prices rose in 14 provinces, among which Shanxi, Fujian, Hubei, Henan, Sichuan and Guizhou rose 0.05 yuan/kg, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Anhui rose 0.1 yuan/kg, Liaoning and Beijing rose 0.2 yuan/kg, Hebei and Jiangsu rose 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg, ** fell 0.2 yuan/kg, and 1 region declined.

Farm-gate prices: Shanxi, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Shanxi rose 0.1 yuan/kg, Shandong, Hunan, Fujian and Hebei rose 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg, Beijing, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangxi, Jilin, Henan, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia rose 0.2 yuan/kg, ** fell 0.2 yuan/kg. Settlement prices: Sichuan rose 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg, Henan, Shaanxi, Hubei, Zhejiang, Beijing, Anhui, Hunan, Shanxi and Guangdong rose 0.1 yuan/kg, Jiangsu, Gansu and Shandong rose 0.2 yuan/kg, Jilin rose 0.2-0.3 yuan/kg, Liaoning rose 0.3 yuan/kg, Heilongjiang rose 0.4-0.5 yuan/kg. Purchase prices: Henan, Shanxi and Fujian rose 0.1 yuan/kg, Shandong and Hebei rose 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Hunan and Zhejiang rose 0.2 yuan/kg, Heilongjiang rose 0.2-0.4 yuan/kg, while a small number of areas remained stable. In the north, affected by snowfall in the Northeast, transportation was blocked, farmers' reluctance to sell intensified, and slaughterhouse purchases were not smooth, so short-term prices are expected to rise slightly. In the south, supply is average, but demand in some areas has improved somewhat, so short-term prices are expected to be stable with slight rises in some places.

Northeast: overall rise. Jilin and Heilongjiang rose 0.1, with overall increases all very small, and mainstream prices at 17.4-18 yuan/kg; Liaoning rose 0.2 yuan/kg, with mainstream prices at 17.2-17.6 yuan/kg; affected by snowy weather, Northeast pig prices have stayed firm, large farms and farmers alike have a price-holding mentality, on December 1 some slaughterhouses raised purchase prices by about 0.2 yuan/kg, Northeast pig prices continued to stand at a national high, and the farm-gate price of some heavy pigs has risen to 9 yuan/jin.

Harbin Meat Processing Plant in Heilongjiang rose 0.4 yuan/kg, local pig purchase price 17.4 yuan/kg, yesterday's settlement price 17.8-17.9 yuan/kg, weight 116-117 kg, short-term prices may be stable.

Sihai Food in Yushu, Jilin rose 0.2 yuan/kg, mainstream local good crossbred pig purchase price 17.0-17.2 yuan/kg, yesterday's settlement price 17.3 yuan/kg, weight 120 kg, short-term prices may still rise slightly; Gaojin in Gongzhuling rose 0.3 yuan/kg, good crossbred pig purchase price 17.2-17.4 yuan/kg, yesterday's settlement price 17.5 yuan/kg, average weight 120 kg, affected by snowfall, prices may still rise slightly in the short term; Yurun in Fuyu rose 0.3 yuan/kg, local pig purchase price 17.3-17.4 yuan/kg, yesterday's settlement price 17.7 yuan/kg, weight 117 kg, snowfall affected pig purchasing, and short-term prices may still rise slightly.

Qianxihe in Liaoning rose 0.3 yuan/kg, good crossbred pig purchase price 17.2-17.4 yuan/kg, yesterday's average settlement price 17.6 yuan/kg, average weight 119 kg, snowfall affected purchasing, and farmers were reluctant to sell; Furun in Shenyang rose 0.3 yuan/kg, good crossbred pig purchase price 17.2-17.4 yuan/kg, yesterday's settlement price 17.6 yuan/kg, weight 117 kg, short-term prices are expected to be stable with accompanying rises.

North China: farm-gate prices continued to rise. Inner Mongolia rose 0.1 yuan/kg; Beijing and Tianjin were stable with rises of 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg, mainstream prices 17-17.4 yuan/kg, Henan improved-breed pigs delivered to Beijing at settlement prices of 17.7-17.8 yuan/kg, Tianjin local improved-breed pigs from large farms at farm-gate prices of 17.2-17.4 yuan/kg, Beijing affected by haze weather and Northeast snowfall had greater purchasing difficulty, and prices rose; Hebei rose 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg in some areas, mainstream prices 16.6-17.2 yuan/kg, slaughterhouses mostly held prices steady and waited, but market prices rose slightly, improved-breed pig farm-gate prices in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai were 16.8-17.0 yuan/kg, farmers' reluctance to sell intensified, and enterprise purchasing was not smooth; Shanxi rose slightly by 0.05 yuan/kg, mainstream prices 16.4-17.3 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from the same period last week. Snowfall appeared in some areas, transportation was blocked, slaughterhouse purchasing was not smooth, and enterprise settlement prices rose again.

Wens in Cangzhou, Hebei rose 0.2 yuan/kg, farm-gate price of four-way crossbred pigs at 17.6 yuan/kg, two-way crossbred pigs at 17.4 yuan/kg, weight around 115 kg, mainly sold to Beijing, Tianjin and local Hebei markets, pig sales were fair, and pig prices tend to rise rather than fall; Qianxihe in Nangong, Xingtai was stable, local good crossbred pig purchase price 16.20 yuan/kg, local mainstream improved-breed pig purchase price 16.80 yuan/kg, yesterday's settlement price 16.80-16.85 yuan/kg, weight 115-120 kg, farmers' reluctance to sell was strong, and pig prices tend to rise rather than fall; Kailongda Food in Shijiazhuang was stable, local improved-breed pig purchase price 16.8 yuan/kg, crossbred pigs 16.2-16.4 yuan/kg, yesterday's average settlement price 17.0 yuan/kg, weight 115 kg.

Central China: pig prices rose slightly while remaining stable. Jiangxi was stable; Henan showed slight rises while remaining stable, up 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg, mainstream prices 16.4-17.3 yuan/kg, slaughterhouse purchase prices 16.4-16.8 yuan/kg, farm-gate prices 16.4-17.3 yuan/kg, mainstream prices at large farms 16.4-17.1 yuan/kg, farm-gate prices of live pigs at a small number of farms 17.1-17.3 yuan/kg, improved-breed pig farm-gate prices in Xinxiang 16.6-16.8 yuan/kg, slaughterhouse purchasing was not smooth, local pig sources flowed out seriously, and local pig prices recently tend to rise rather than fall; in Henan, however, stability was actually dominant, farmers were reluctant to sell, slaughterhouse purchasing was poor, and prices rose while remaining stable; Hubei and Hunan rose slightly while remaining stable, with increases of 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg and mainstream prices 16.6-17 yuan/kg; affected by Henan's price rise, Hubei and Hunan may see tighter local pig supply, driving prices up.

East China: live pig farm-gate prices overall showed a trend of rising while remaining stable. Shanghai and Anhui were stable, Shandong rose slightly by 0.1 yuan/kg, mainstream prices 16.6-17.4 yuan/kg, high prices in the Jiaodong Peninsula 17.0 yuan/kg, slaughterhouse purchase prices in Linyi rose 0.1 yuan/kg, slaughterhouse purchase prices in Yantai, Weihai, Weifang and Qingdao were steady at 16.6-17.1 yuan/kg, mainstream farm-gate prices 16.6-17.4 yuan/kg, pig supply was fair, slaughterhouse purchasing was average, but affected by the Northeast, prices tend to rise rather than fall; Fujian trended stable, mainstream prices 16.3-17 yuan/kg; Jiangsu mainstream prices 16.6-17.5 yuan/kg, reference price 17.05 yuan/kg, up 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg, Jiangsu and Anhui were temporarily stable, and affected by rising prices in the north, farmers had a reluctance to sell.